I am a natural optimist,so I will normally try to look for any positives in anything and have observed the following regarding E.A.Cables results:

1. Qtrly results do not always follow a specific trend. E.g. In 2007 the first 3 qtrs were almost flat but Q4 2007 was substantially down (against previous qtrs) as was Q4 2006. This is in contrast with Q4 2005 where 43% of the whole year's profits were generated in that quarter.

2. Q1 09 PBT at 172.7 million is virtually double that of Q4 2008 at 86.5 million.

3. Sales have fallen off by 3% against Q108 and 6.4% against Q408. This worries me,but observe that it is not the first qtr where their turnover has fallen when compared to previous quarters. Note,Mgt attributed this fall partly to a reduction in LME (London Metal Exchange) prices. I presume that this means that EA Cables have had to reduce prices to end-users,which might not be such a bad thing.

4. Utility companies accross the region are continuing to ramp up investment in transmission and distribution. This is likely to continue notwithstanding the GFC.

5. If other quarters were to replicate Q1,PBT for the year would come at 3% above 2008.

Would I buy it? I think it all depends on the price and how other shares are faring. Below Kshs 18 in my view would represent good value (fwd P/E of about 9 and a Div yield of 5%). I would probably increase this price after seeing Q2 results.


Opportunity calls but few respond.

Thats a real Consoller..i see the sense in this stock in the long haul..the Yield is what will sustain this Journey and EACables is quite fine !

M'c Kende Siafu !

Stockyt,

I agree to a certain extent,but only with regard to 2008. However,even in 2008 Q3 with sales of Kshs 1.157 billion and PBT of Kshs 243m was higher than the Q1 (sales - 941m and PBT of 213.3 million). 2007 was just a little lower than the projection (extrapolation from Q1) while 2006 was higher. I trust that this does not portend a downward trend i.e from 2006 it seems to have been downwards when comparing expectations for the full year on the basis of Q1.

On a different note,EA Cables appears to be a reasonably well run company - always the first to report (and frequently),pays good dividends and has been expanding quite aggresively. The recession may have taken the wind out of their sails (No pun intended),but then which company has not been affected? All the same,I expect some DOWNWARD pressure on the share price for a while.



Opportunity calls but few respond.

Iborian,What spin are you talking about? I simply laid out the facts that are in the public domain and just highlighted certain aspects. I hold no brief for EA Cables. If Trans Century is having a problem with any of their other businesses,that is neither there nor here. Why not address the facts and/or opinion that I have enumerated in the thread rather than generalize while raising irrelevancies?

Opportunity calls but few respond.

Cables at current price an expensive share.If sales are down profit down and projects are not rosy then its its high.I must say !@ mwanahisa sound like our old Jammoh!

astrologers for better future