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KQ where is it headed?
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QW25081985
#11 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 12:51:36 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
hisah wrote:
@deal - what is your buy on dips level? 17, 15, 12? The pilot bailed out @30 na bado rights & we are below 20 feet!?

Will it really hit a low of 12?? Are we on our way there?


technically speaking ( asin looking at the charts) 17 is our support... a break of that will be bad !!!!

so if i am waiting for the price my first price to dip in will be at 17 bob
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StatMeister
#12 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 2:07:30 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
Its not KQ, its all stocks, we are headed for deep waters.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Aguytrying
#13 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 2:12:26 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
For current shareholders. There's no way out and no-where to run. If they do go for a rights issue. 3:1. The share will trade in single digits for a very long time with a diluted eps and div yield to boot.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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guru267
#14 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 2:30:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
stocksmaster wrote:
The collapse of the KQ share price makes matters worse , as the rights must be at a discount to the prevailing share price (Say a price of Ksh 15). Reducing the rights price forces an increase in the number of shares to be issued (3:1 rights issue with creation of additional 462x3 = 1386M Shares), further worsening the dilutional effect to existing shares EPS and Dividend yield.


@stocksmaster a worst case scenario of a 3:1 rights issue would bring a total issued share capital of 1.8billion shares..

With the current PAT sitting at 4billion the new EPS would be 2.22..

This will make the P/E 8.8 and the DPS of 1.5 can be maintained to give a yield of 7.6%..

Mind you when KQ acquires the fleet PAT will rise exponentially..

Im actually very bullish on KQ at these levels..




Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Sure
#15 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 3:08:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
We attended the investor's briefing at Stanley on Tuesday where Alex Mbugua, the Finance Director, emphasized on the 10 year plan that they have dubbed "Mawingu" project (I think it's catchy). KQ is trading at 19.40 as it opened the day 19.55. I would like to know what guys are thinking about this and the impending rights issue. What will the ideal price be? With the USD/KES rate stabilising in recent weeks could we be headed for the issue by early next year? KQ confirmed that they had been in discussions with a particular bank (name was not revealed) to make funds available to those who are interested in the rights issue but do Kenyans want to take up loans in this high interest rate environment? Will they wait until the MPC meeting on 2nd December to measure loan appetite? There is so many factors to consider right, have I forgotten any? Share your thoughts smile


Is this genge economic and finance discussion?
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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Sure
#16 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 3:16:38 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
What happened to dreamliners that were to be delivered in 2009 to 2013? After the 49 shilling rights from Mumias some time ago, I always shiver at the mention of a rights issue. Mumias is today trading at 5.50. KQ will trade at 6 bob after the rights. Endeni kichinjio.

Otherswise, keep dreamlining your pockets.
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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platinum seeker
#17 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 4:16:01 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/22/2010
Posts: 35
Location: Nairobi
I think the whole rights issue has been mismanaged by KQ hence the steady decline in the share price. They kept it under wraps for tooooo long (never accepting or denying any plans of having a rights issue) up until the September 2011 announcement.... and hence investors steadily lost confidence in the share, selling off their holdings at different price levels, 60s, 50s, 40/-(even despite 2010’s spectacular results following the windfall from the world cup), 30/- and now 20s. As long as those handling this rights issue keep quiet on the nitty gritty details eg the rights’ price, this share will hit 8 bob...again who knows.... maybe they want it to get to that price :).
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the deal
#18 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 7:10:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
platinum seeker wrote:
I think the whole rights issue has been mismanaged by KQ hence the steady decline in the share price. They kept it under wraps for tooooo long (never accepting or denying any plans of having a rights issue) up until the September 2011 announcement.... and hence investors steadily lost confidence in the share, selling off their holdings at different price levels, 60s, 50s, 40/-(even despite 2010’s spectacular results following the windfall from the world cup), 30/- and now 20s. As long as those handling this rights issue keep quiet on the nitty gritty details eg the rights’ price, this share will hit 8 bob...again who knows.... maybe they want it to get to that price :).

Applause Applause
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Kabird
#19 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 8:41:49 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/6/2011
Posts: 60
Ready to pick up some soon...Those who have a tough skin will make some good returns come the bulls
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guru267
#20 Posted : Friday, November 18, 2011 8:50:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
The people with money should pile into KQ below 20..
The reason for the current sell off is that investors do not want to face dilution because very few of them will afford to take up such a huge rights issue..
Definitely it chose an expensive source of finance through a rights issue rather than debt but I really believe the new planes for the new low cost airline they are opening next year will boost profits and EPS and kill the competition which I believe should benefit shareholders who take up rights very handsomely...

Alas! I can only watch their future glory from afar because i'd be caught dead before I held an airline stock for the long term..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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