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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Kizee - I'm not talking of shorting TZS, I'm talking of the chart pattern. Just like KE, they can delay the inevitable, but the direction point skywards for a while. Unless the EA economies pull off a miracle to prevent the coming money winter, this is not going to end well. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:@Kizee - I'm not talking of shorting TZS, I'm talking of the chart pattern. Just like KE, they can delay the inevitable, but the direction point skywards for a while. Unless the EA economies pull off a miracle to prevent the coming money winter, this is not going to end well. guess if u wanna participate in the tzs trade to 2000 u wud need to short tzs go long usd? on funding basis alone this isnt a trade worth ur time unless ur a tz onshore...thats what i meant...yea tzs is where kes was some months back ie inflationary pressures etc but and this a big but...unless ur an onshore u cannot short the pair
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes - I can see CBK is still compressing this thing downwards, below 95 and aiming for 90.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:@Kizee - I'm not talking of shorting TZS, I'm talking of the chart pattern. Just like KE, they can delay the inevitable, but the direction point skywards for a while. Unless the EA economies pull off a miracle to prevent the coming money winter, this is not going to end well. guess if u wanna participate in the tzs trade to 2000 u wud need to short tzs go long usd? on funding basis alone this isnt a trade worth ur time unless ur a tz onshore...thats what i meant...yea tzs is where kes was some months back ie inflationary pressures etc but and this a big but...unless ur an onshore u cannot short the pair Obviously from out here you can't touch TZS. By the way are you looking at the rand... I expect the USDZAR to test 9.00 or worse 10.00.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I think a reversal is in the offing. A shift to real safe havens being emerging mkt ccys. They should target net importer ccys like KES  very much welcome.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700. I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.
I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill... bwana hisah, are u techie fan? chek out the kes chart...theres a h&s pattern formed, neclikne at 97.65, so from a highj of 107..the min price objective(x)= 97.65-(107-97.65), solve for x(5pts)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.
I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill... bwana hisah, are u techie fan? chek out the kes chart...theres a h&s pattern formed, neclikne at 97.65, so from a highj of 107..the min price objective(x)= 97.65-(107-97.65), solve for x(5pts) I'm a TA fan. 1st target 88, then 86 then 82. The current H&S targets 87-88 levels.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:kizee1 wrote:hisah wrote:So far KES & UGX have compressed the most unlike TZS which looks unconvincing. BoT should use the shock & awe card like KE & UG to force TZS below 1700.
I wonder if cbk's USDKES comfort cap will be 90 if they can force it below 90... They need to eliminate the crazy fx violatility for hot money to flow back into risk assets - NSE etc. At that point I'll be willing to release the tbill... bwana hisah, are u techie fan? chek out the kes chart...theres a h&s pattern formed, neclikne at 97.65, so from a highj of 107..the min price objective(x)= 97.65-(107-97.65), solve for x(5pts) I'm a TA fan. 1st target 88, then 86 then 82. The current H&S targets 87-88 levels. crazy stuff huh? basically all it took was cbk mopping up the takataka mashiringi they printed since 2009 eh?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Kizee - This is annoying not crazy. What was the point of the excess printing/devaluation? We need to move away from this short term fixes aka small minded mentally when it comes to fiscal policies. So far le prof is following volcker's way back in the 80's. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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The growth machine was due for service & reset. Catch the new season Q.E-Counties Edition
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:@Kizee - This is annoying not crazy. What was the point of the excess printing/devaluation? We need to move away from this short term fixes aka small minded mentally when it comes to fiscal policies. So far le prof is following volcker's way back in the 80's. the point was to inflate money supply so as to cause a faux economic boom...i agree with you the only forward is to strip the power to create money from the CB, their role shud be purely regulatory
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:The growth machine was due for service & reset. Catch the new season Q.E-Counties Edition Yep. Counties QE, but at least this will be productive since these must be developed/upgraded. Then once on their feet, we can have county bonds for further developments. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Mainat - sees money winter season lasting till Feb 2012. Mimi naona hii season ya cash drought hadi June 2012, then some crazy budget proposal will follow suit. Due to money crunch the politicians will have a field day bribing the electorate as election hits fever pitch  I hope mwananchi will not be swayed to repeat the mistakes yet again... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Eish. Low 90s now? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@Youcant - most likely today, siringi will close below 90. CBK wamecheza rough game hand over fist. No taking prisoners here. The cross should settle @88 levels meeting the head & shoulder pattern target. Depending on the next MPC meeting we will know if 90 will be the cap or further down to 85. I'm still on exile in tbills. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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I'm wondering how banks will survive with interbank rate above 30%. What happens at 40%+ esp the small banks? What about costs of funds aka deposit rates? I'm seeing smold here... http://www.businessdaily...2/-/a3a2dgz/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/29/2010 Posts: 679 Location: nairobi
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[quote=hisah]I'm wondering how banks will survive with interbank rate above 30%. What happens at 40%+ esp the small banks? What about costs of funds aka deposit rates? I'm seeing smold here... http://www.businessdaily.../-/a3a2dgz/-/index.html[/quote] good lesson for banks on ALM management, inefficient ones will be weeded out
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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[quote=hisah]I'm wondering how banks will survive with interbank rate above 30%. What happens at 40%+ esp the small banks? What about costs of funds aka deposit rates? I'm seeing smold here... http://www.businessdaily.../-/a3a2dgz/-/index.html[/quote] Let us get caned for our games in FY2011  those Q4 might not be the best
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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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