Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2009 Posts: 26,331 Location: Masada
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Why has UNGA managed to stay put despite its pals aka Mumias tanking big time? Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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mwanahisa wrote:
Njunge, as you well know, many of us do not like betting against you as far as Sugar is concerned. All the same, there appears to be more positives regarding MSC relative to the negatives ATM.
Thanks Mwanahisa but are you sure you are not overating Guka?  .....I am certain there are positives but what i hold is that the first half will not be rosy as we want to paint it.Several issues have conspired against this stock most recent.Weather,poor cane husbandry,planting plannning and of course a few other details,which have already been pointed out here by other Wazuans.My understanding is that production targets (sugar and power) are way off target and matters will not be helped by the fact that annual maintenance for next FY will be held in April 2011 or thereabout.If that happens,then the plant will have had two annual maintenance periods inside one FY.That will cut down production targets by a sizeable margin. I also understand that the ethanol plant is behind by a whooping 6 months.Whereas production was supposed to start in Sept,this may not be possible until well past April 2012.....Now! Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 608 Location: Ruiru
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This thread has opened my eyes in terms of dividend yield. Its good thing I couldn't get the poison .... now I can actually buy and benefit in two ways... the dividend & average cost. What I don't understand with MSC is why scheduled down times like maintenance tend to have negative impact. If we knew ab-initio that the plant will operate for 10 months in the FY, why do we then get surprised when it operates for 10 months? "..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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@GGK, It's a good thing.Low prices can help average down and cut losses.That's if you have the power and the will (Yeah,it's not for the faint hearted... .What you do not understand?...Some of this maintenance are scheduled for specific periods.Unfortunately various other factors,among them,weather,cane fires,farmer's moral and crop can dictate otherwise.....and well,sugar production is that tricky the world over,especially for countries within the tropics. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 608 Location: Ruiru
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Njung'e wrote:@GGK, It's a good Low prices can help average down and cut losses.That's if you have the power and the will (Yeah,it's not for the faint hearted... .What you do not understand?...Some of this maintenance are scheduled for specific periods.Unfortunately various other factors,among them,weather,cane fires,farmer's moral and crop can dictate otherwise.....and well,sugar production is that tricky the world over,especially for countries within the tropics. My point was, if it is known from the very beginning that plant will operate for 11 months every year, why should it even be an issue. Revenue projections are based on 11 months in any case "..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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GGK wrote:[quote=Njung'e]@GGK,
My point was, if it is known from the very beginning that plant will operate for 11 months every year, why should it even be an issue. Revenue projections are based on 11 months in any case
Projections will be at the start of a FY.3 months down the line,you are hit by El-Nino thus hampering cane transportation and you have to call off operations for 3 months or until the gods turn of the rain taps.Do we still have 11 months?That is just one example of the sugar industry challenges. Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 608 Location: Ruiru
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Njung'e wrote:GGK wrote:[quote=Njung'e]@GGK,
My point was, if it is known from the very beginning that plant will operate for 11 months every year, why should it even be an issue. Revenue projections are based on 11 months in any case
Projections will be at the start of a FY.3 months down the line,you are hit by El-Nino thus hampering cane transportation and you have to call off operations for 3 months or until the gods turn of the rain taps.Do we still have 11 months?That is just one example of the sugar industry challenges. I rest my case... It isn't wise to argue with a baron even if it is a sugar baron "..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/7/2007 Posts: 11,935 Location: Nairobi
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GGK wrote:
I rest my case... It isn't wise to argue with a baron even if it is a sugar baron
@GGK, I wish i was a sugar baron  ....No!A drug baron  .I would have bought all those miserables shares and made you and everybody else here happy after and forever  .Good day! Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Njung'e wrote:Thanks Mwanahisa but are you sure you are not overating Guka? .....I am certain there are positives but what i hold is that the first half will not be rosy as we want to paint it.Several issues have conspired against this stock most recent.Weather,poor cane husbandry,planting plannning and of course a few other details,which have already been pointed out here by other Wazuans.My understanding is that production targets (sugar and power) are way off target and matters will not be helped by the fact that annual maintenance for next FY will be held in April 2011 or thereabout.If that happens,then the plant will have had two annual maintenance periods inside one FY.That will cut down production targets by a sizeable margin. I also understand that the ethanol plant is behind by a whooping 6 months.Whereas production was supposed to start in Sept,this may not be possible until well past April 2012.....Now! I am certainly mot overating you. Your record speaks for itself as far as MSC is concerned. It is always best to know what the situation is on the ground even when we speculate. At least now, I have an idea about current production conditions at the factory and will be sufficiently bearish in determining my buying price levels. Incidentally, on the ethanol plant, I am not suprised at all. MSC is notorious for not delivering projects on time. The Cogen project springs to mind and as for TARDA - the less said the better. But, the market prices this into the share price and it seems to me we may NOT be too far off a worst case scenario.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mwanahisa wrote:Njunge, as you well know, many of us do not like betting against you as far as Sugar is concerned. All the same, there appears to be more positives regarding MSC relative to the negatives ATM. Do you have any info on the current production figures? Whereas we can not discount MSC's share price falling further, MSC swings quite a bit even in a bear market and I for one has been able to make 10-15% on those swings many a time. That means I can be both short and long term at these prices on MSC. Besides, at a PE of less than 5, Price to Book of less than 1 and a yield approaching 10%, I believe there are worse places to get trapped in. @ mwanahisa. I can relate to the price swings that make this a favourable share to trade. And you make a good case (as always). p.e 5, dividend yield of 10%, its really a good investment case. even if it does go lower. As far as trading is concerned, its safe to do it in a share one has long term ambitions in. Otherwise, im done trading( unless for bonus shares of a long term play). Kengen gave me a sucker punch, still reeling from the effects. At least not in a bear market. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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