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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:@Qw - For KCB 19.50 is an uptrend breaking point since 2009. Remember when I mentioned the same last year when MSC broke below 13.60... Uptrend breaks are usually very nasty esp in a bear market & prices get ridiculous to say the least. You might see 15/- which showed up in 2009...
Aug 24 2011 - And KCB did breakdown 15/-$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:
@youcant - this is what I see at the moment based on 5yr chart analysis.
KCB - Testing the uptrend line since March 2009. A break below and close below 19.50 will mean an end to the uptrend and aim for 18 as the first support before settling at 16.50.
MSC - No longer in an uptrend still testing layers of support levels. Support zone is 5.50 - 6.00. Below this is back to 2009 March lows at 3.60. There was a lot of churn volume between May 2010 and Aug 2010 and since then the uptrend has broken down. That volume was exit volume. This one will take time to turn around.
Centum - high volume churn on 27/7/2011. 17.80 tested and bounced, but the structure is bearish and 21 is now resistance. Should settle at 16/- in coming months.
Sasini - Uptrend since March 2009 lows broken down in March 2011. Tested underside of uptrend and rallied above in May 2011, but failed to maintain above uptrend and now below again since July 2011. It looks like it wants to attempt another upthrust above the trend line now at 11.30. A test and failure to go above it just like in May 2011 will see it fall to 8.50. The next support comes in at 6.80 - 7.10 levels. From the look of things this is the likely out come - 7bob in coming months.
KCB and Centum exceeded sell targets! Sasini did the opposite after the real estate announcement and turned bullish.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@hisah. Uko juu tu sana. What would you say of kenol kobil, after its refusal to break down 9.50-10.00. For so long. Has it developed a new resistance point. Also factoring in the take over target talk by the ceo and all the good feel about the stock. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Uko juu tu sana. What would you say of kenol kobil, after its refusal to break down 9.50-10.00. For so long. Has it developed a new resistance point. Also factoring in the take over target talk by the ceo and all the good feel about the stock. u mean support area ...Yep i would think so..
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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QW25081985 wrote:Aguytrying wrote:@hisah. Uko juu tu sana. What would you say of kenol kobil, after its refusal to break down 9.50-10.00. For so long. Has it developed a new resistance point. Also factoring in the take over target talk by the ceo and all the good feel about the stock. u mean support area ...Yep i would think so.. Yes i meant support. Resistance is the opposite. The demand from 9.50 to 9.80 is strong and keeps coming back, even after the massive sells that come from time to time. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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QW, does that mean you are now buying and have stopped calling for 8 bob?  hisah, yeah, those agrics have been on a mad mad rally. WTK and KAPCH are on a roll. Has supply started to creep up on WTK? Was up 9.8p.c at one time today but ended up 5.71% These 2 are rallying because of the sale of the headquarters (and the promise of extra fat dividends) I think Sasini only announced an intention to change 'use of land' Will the price explode once they get down to real development? KCB has been battered. Could the results be that terrible? Does a (massive) increase in their base rate bode well? Equity put in respectable figures today. But nothing like the massive figures we saw at Q1. Maybe we will see them end their year at 35%-40% growth. I want the price lower... Have Centum bonus shares started trading? Their half year is already up. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, does that mean you are now buying and have stopped calling for 8 bob? hisah, yeah, those agrics have been on a mad mad rally. WTK and KAPCH are on a roll. Has supply started to creep up on WTK? Was up 9.8p.c at one time today but ended up 5.71% These 2 are rallying because of the sale of the headquarters (and the promise of extra fat dividends) I think Sasini only announced an intention to change 'use of land' Will the price explode once they get down to real development? KCB has been battered. Could the results be that terrible? Does a (massive) increase in their base rate bode well? Equity put in respectable figures today. But nothing like the massive figures we saw at Q1. Maybe we will see them end their year at 35%-40% growth. I want the price lower... Have Centum bonus shares started trading? Their half year is already up. wweweew !!! hold there . we compare Q3 with previous Q3 ...lol .and equity has done exceptionally well.If it fall to 17 bob again thats a steal if you ask me.. as for kcb am also worried.. There has been huge selling by foreigner ( these guys are serious)as we run up to results . that aint good.. As for ak . wacha tu...i have tried to explain my strategy lakini wapi..hiyo tu wacha nijiweke.. 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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QW, still no doubt things are not as rosy as the beginning, as James Mwangi alluded to. ROE thought went up past the 30% mark ROA slightly down, which he mainly attributed to the rapid rise in assets GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, does that mean you are now buying and have stopped calling for 8 bob? hisah, yeah, those agrics have been on a mad mad rally. WTK and KAPCH are on a roll. Has supply started to creep up on WTK? Was up 9.8p.c at one time today but ended up 5.71% These 2 are rallying because of the sale of the headquarters (and the promise of extra fat dividends) I think Sasini only announced an intention to change 'use of land' Will the price explode once they get down to real development?KCB has been battered. Could the results be that terrible? Does a (massive) increase in their base rate bode well? Equity put in respectable figures today. But nothing like the massive figures we saw at Q1. Maybe we will see them end their year at 35%-40% growth. I want the price lower... Have Centum bonus shares started trading? Their half year is already up.
And it shot up from 10s to 13, then fell back to 12 for a reload, and now testing 14. Breaking it aims 16. Now imagine your query being confirmed!
@guru says WTK land is not a 'beauty', but with dubai built in the sand, anything is possible when the hot money lands here And when those agri firms revalue their land, you might see a serious parabolic; EAGAAD's fake-out rally will look like a dwarf...
@Aguy - I'm not convinced with KK despite the fact that it's ranging at 9.50 - 9.90. The June exit volume at 12 still stands in the way. Money was made then. This is why I prefer a rotation to Total than KK. Total has announced all its bad onions and speculators are now capitulated. If there are any signs of biz recovery, I'd rather this extremely oversold oil stock than KK. Please note, I'm not thinking like a long term investor, but as a trader. Just study global oil stocks behavior. BP is a good example when had that nasty oil spill. Total could bounce 50% more easily than KK rallying on the same measure.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:QW, still no doubt things are not as rosy as the beginning, as James Mwangi alluded to. ROE thought went up past the 30% mark
ROA slightly down, which he mainly attributed to the rapid rise in assets aiiish . lol you are so negative on the results and the way they were quite good i am starting to think they were cooked..Here's a low down on the most important stuff..eps ,loans. etc etc etc courtesy s.i.b bank. " Equity bank group announced its 3Q11 results with after tax profits climbing 42% y/y to KES 7.3bn. Interest income from loans and advances grew 34%y/y(14% q/q) as the loan book expanded to KES 109bn, up 54%y/y. Interest on customer deposits surged 30% supported by a 50% growth in customer deposits to KES 144bn. Consequently, net interest income jumped 32%y/y to KES 11bn. Non funded income, representing 46% of the group’s total income, notched up 15% y/y. Total operating income and total operating expenses grew by 24% and 14% respectively. Cost to income ratio stood at 56%, down from 61% in 3Q10. Total Assets rose 43% y/y to KES 195bn. At an annualized EPS of KES 2.63, the bank trades at a PE of 7.24x and a PB of 2.37x. "
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