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The stock market has Bottomed
mkonomtupu
#91 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:18:19 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@Maili valu institutional investors are buying t-bills for the simple reason we have a thick finance minister(i miss mwiraria)- one he restricted NSSF to only buy government securities for new contributions received, he then went and changed the mwiraria rules on locking in retirement benefits now our generation y employees can access their own pension contributions and 50% of the employers contributions when they change jobs and fund managers have to keep a lot of liquid cash in t-bills to cope with withdrawals
ProverB
#92 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:30:53 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mkonomtupu wrote:
@Maili valu institutional investors are buying t-bills for the simple reason we have a thick finance minister(i miss mwiraria)- one he restricted NSSF to only buy government securities for new contributions received, he then went and changed the mwiraria rules on locking in retirement benefits now our generation y employees can access their own pension contributions and 50% of the employers contributions when they change jobs and fund managers have to keep a lot of liquid cash in t-bills to cope with withdrawals


question..
bearing all you have said above.. is Maili likely to make a return on investments within foreseeable future by buyin stocks or tbills?

moral authority is not an investment strategy...but preserving capital, ensuring a return and minimising risk are..and unfortunately..ceteris paribus.. tbills are in.

who did what or why is neither here nor there. Fact is...billionaires..which u aspire to be..are fashioned in economic downturns.

just a thought... effectively turning over 200k alternatively in tbills about thrice between june 2011 and june 2012.. with overall average int rate at 13%..or thereabout... what is your likely return within the period? what stock can with certainty give you that within same period?

its funny how guys castigating CBK are really enjoying returns on tbills/bonds. smile

jus saying.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mlennyma
#93 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:39:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Kenyan ministers are rubber stamps,if there is anybody to blame thats ps kinyua,he was with mwiraria before but am happy from next year we will have proffesionals in place to run ministries.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mkonomtupu
#94 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:46:01 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
@ProverB, let's take your argument to its logical conclusion, i run a number of small businesses i have 12 staff members who have in employment for the last four years, the company is doing and has healthy reserves but right now business is low and staff are idle and we have to service our loans and i'm actively thinking of firing half of them in December shifting to a virtual office to cut down on rent until things pick up again. So i will pick up the savings on staff costs and rent and pack it in t-bills and 6 kenyans will have no jobs including the office messenger who was hoping to get married in December. Like they say business is not charity. Just saying
Cde Monomotapa
#95 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:49:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
ProverB wrote:
its funny how guys castigating CBK are really enjoying returns on tbills/bonds. smile

jus saying.

Cde Monomotapa
#96 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:51:53 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mkonomtupu wrote:
I would still go for stocks now and chase them to the very bottom i always think t-bills is for lazy investors a smart investor should only use t-bills to store an emergency fund which you then rollover. But with the current low values for stocks when a rebound comes stocks will still bring greater capital gains than the 14% for t-bills. It's time to accumulate stocks

Couldn't agree more.
Cde Monomotapa
#97 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:55:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I'd rather keep buying KCB at a mkt cap. of 48B and let them buy those 14% t-bills as they pay depositors 2% on my behalf.
Sure
#98 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 10:07:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/9/2010
Posts: 546
Location: Garissa
Maili Valu wrote:
Hi guys,
I have read, re-read, taken notes, studied, and repeated the process all over again on this particular thread.

my conclusion is, no one really knows when the bottom is coming.
Going by mwananchi,hisa, aguytrying, provedd, stocksmaster and mukiha, i have settled my mind to simply "follow the cash"
the big cash. institutional investors. and right now those ones are in TBILLs.

As hisa points out, for the next 12 months or so, as long as inflation gets higher, and MPC keeps rising base rate, not discounting cash already being dished out by politicians as elections nigh, the bottom remains a mirage.

i think.


I still don't get what the problem is. Knowing the bottom of a stock market is as simple as knowing when to plant your farm. You can read the signs of a gathering rain season.

Same case applies in the stock market, when interest on bonds keeps going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the stock market has hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, you better already be in stocks. Its like a level where one side is Bonds and the other Side is Stocks. Both sides cannot be high at the same time or low at the same time. But they can be level at the same time but with either of them heading in the oppossit direction.
Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom.
When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
the deal
#99 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 10:35:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Sure you have seen the light my friend..here is something interesting...In January 2011 T-Bill was at 2.4%...NSE20 was at 4600..fast track to September 2011...T-Bill at 11.4%...NSE20 is at 3277...you see that relationship smile
ngapat
#100 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 11:14:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 930
any further dip will give me a heart attack
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
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