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The stock market has Bottomed
Cde Monomotapa
#81 Posted : Friday, September 30, 2011 9:31:36 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Nabwire wrote:
Ouch!!! Lets see who will have the last laugh

Ok.
mlennyma
#82 Posted : Monday, October 10, 2011 4:45:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Is a green monday a signal of a +ve week?the rains have started pounding many parts including ukambani,.some corporate announcements expected..any excitement?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Cde Monomotapa
#83 Posted : Monday, October 10, 2011 8:37:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mlennyma wrote:
Is a green monday a signal of a +ve week?the rains have started pounding many parts including ukambani,.some corporate announcements expected..any excitement?

Jaza 7-Forks pap! smile
Sober
#84 Posted : Monday, October 10, 2011 8:45:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Some greens might have been envisaged, but the volumes are not any encouraging. Getting into the counters is becoming more and more difficult. It's time to start piling.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
QW25081985
#85 Posted : Monday, October 10, 2011 8:59:23 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
all i know is that the bear market low will be printed THIS YEAR ...
and trust me all the bearishness thats there will be backed in proper and 2012 we'll see a bull market...
Aguytrying
#86 Posted : Monday, October 10, 2011 11:01:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
QW25081985 wrote:
all i know is that the bear market low will be printed THIS YEAR ...
and trust me all the bearishness thats there will be backed in proper and 2012 we'll see a bull market...

i'm thinking along those lines, this is likely the bear period, and 2012 will be less bearish, not more bearish as many expect. However, i think the market is yet to go down completely, dont be fooled by the green colour.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#87 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 7:18:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
all i know is that the bear market low will be printed THIS YEAR ...
and trust me all the bearishness thats there will be backed in proper and 2012 we'll see a bull market...

i'm thinking along those lines, this is likely the bear period, and 2012 will be less bearish, not more bearish as many expect. However, i think the market is yet to go down completely, dont be fooled by the green colour.

When t-bills, inflation & forex top out, then we'll see some equity volume build up. If you were NSSF would you risk funds on equities or would you buy t-bills that guarantee 14%+ and edging higher? What is the current econ trend, boom or slowdown? Where will the boom come from in 2012 with cbk pulling the econ handbrake in Q4? Don't fight the trend and no need to chase bottoms just like chasing tops. Ride the uptrend in money markets, when it slopes go back to equities or bonds.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mkonomtupu
#88 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 8:53:17 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
all i know is that the bear market low will be printed THIS YEAR ...
and trust me all the bearishness thats there will be backed in proper and 2012 we'll see a bull market...

i'm thinking along those lines, this is likely the bear period, and 2012 will be less bearish, not more bearish as many expect. However, i think the market is yet to go down completely, dont be fooled by the green colour.

When t-bills, inflation & forex top out, then we'll see some equity volume build up. If you were NSSF would you risk funds on equities or would you buy t-bills that guarantee 14%+ and edging higher? What is the current econ trend, boom or slowdown? Where will the boom come from in 2012 with cbk pulling the econ handbrake in Q4? Don't fight the trend and no need to chase bottoms just like chasing tops. Ride the uptrend in money markets, when it slopes go back to equities or bonds.


I would still go for stocks now and chase them to the very bottom i always think t-bills is for lazy investors a smart investor should only use t-bills to store an emergency fund which you then rollover. But with the current low values for stocks when a rebound comes stocks will still bring greater capital gains than the 14% for t-bills. It's time to accumulate stocks
mlennyma
#89 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 8:53:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
If the house owner knew the exact time the thief will strike,he would not have been robbed.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Maili Valu
#90 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2011 9:05:43 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 10/11/2011
Posts: 2
Hi guys,
I have read, re-read, taken notes, studied, and repeated the process all over again on this particular thread.

my conclusion is, no one really knows when the bottom is coming.
Going by mwananchi,hisa, aguytrying, provedd, stocksmaster and mukiha, i have settled my mind to simply "follow the cash"
the big cash. institutional investors. and right now those ones are in TBILLs.

As hisa points out, for the next 12 months or so, as long as inflation gets higher, and MPC keeps rising base rate, not discounting cash already being dished out by politicians as elections nigh, the bottom remains a mirage.

i think.
28 Pages«<7891011>»
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