@ Much Know

Lets call a spade a spade. The main problems afflicting the market are self inflicted. Please note that political instability was top of my list followed by lack of investor confidence. Chronologically,it went down in January 2008 after events we all know,followed by the broker drama,and has never recovered since then. By the time the global crisis crept in around August 2008,the damage was already done.



reithi

I think the overall market will rise but a 30% gain is more assured for select counters before the election. In my view,an investor needs to:

1. Break the suggested time period to:
(a) Pre-election year and election candidates are known. August/December 2011 or even will be a reflective point for investment. Investment horizon in equities should be made with this 'safe' horizon.
(b) Once election candidates are known,associated political risk is assessible and for the risk averse probably once election results are known. A bull run usually follows Kenyan elections...

2. Reduce scope from the general market to economic sectors in a growth face. Restrict investments to these sectors. In my view,the construction,telecommunications and financial sectors are good bets over this period.

Consequently,investments in sectors listed in (2) above may yield above average returns over the cut-off periods sugegsted which translates to the average percentage gain alluded to. An investor should consider the highest return for his investment not by market averages in my view but carefully selected counters. A 30% gain over this period is well within reach. My 2 Cents.

True. 2009 - 2011 is shaped to an extent on that. To determine the severity,I break it down further to:

1. 'Troops'
These are politicians whose utterances are suggestive and advisory,ultimately 'harmless'.

2.'Generals'
These are politicans with the capacity and wherewithal to induce violence in areas they have support and beyond. This can be narrowed to political tribal chiefs from:
(i) Rift Valley
(ii) Central
(iii) Nyanza

3. Incumbent
This is the one currently in office whose term is set to expire. Will he push for a third term?

4. Revolutionary
Will Kenyans have a chance to vote in a radical? Maina Njenga?

I find (1),(3) and (4) harmless on the overall in the period leading up to 2012.

The Generals pose the greatest variable to the overall mood. So far they have a semblance of wanting to work together...

Things are definitely not good.

yes,it will

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB