Lets start by listing the challenges facing the market in
the order of its weight;
1. Prevailing political uncertainity after the 2007 debacle.
2. Failure to institute political and land reforms to fix 1.
3. Food,power and water crisis.
4. Low investor confidence after collapse of brokers.
5. To a lesser extent,the global financial meltdown.
Since political class on both sides prefer to maintain the status quo,1 and 2 are unlikely to be addressed by 2012,if ever. The crisis management attempts to sort 3 will mean more expensive power,less water and food,therefore we shall a less competitive investment destination,for both local and foreign investors. In fact,it creates an opportunity for a small group who-is-who to profit from the situation. On 4,CMA has taken the right steps to rein in brokers but we are still far away from restoring confidence.
In my humble opinion,the market will head further south as we approach 2012.