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Will NSE touch 4,000 betweeen now and 2012?
Mainat
#1 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 6:51:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Under normal conditions,a 30% rise to 4,000 would not seem that daunting,but the NSE has been stuck around the 3,000 for a while. Can our great leaders deliver the economy to get us to 4,000 before the likely move back down in 2011 and 2012?


www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Njunge
#2 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 7:52:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Mainat,
our leaders??......Do we have any?....i mean,this idiots are engrossed in politics of thy selves.......They won't deliver even a lousy louse.We are in for a long haul.

Old man about town....
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Ericks
#3 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 8:15:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/29/2008
Posts: 170
Our trading patterns are also to blame....

like for example someone places an buy order for safcom at 3 bob,then places another order at 3.20,another one at 3.40,then at 3.60,all these orders range from 3 to 5 million,before u notice the share moves to 3.90 on seeing this trend the rest of us starts offloading but by the time our orders gets to the board,he offloads all his shares at 3.80 and we all go for a dip settling at levels of 3.50 for the lucky ones n thus pushing the price back to 3.00 or even lower....

Technology has also made trading easier n faster,so soon it might be (if its not already is) possible to place efficient trailing stop loss orders and a result slow down the price rallies. so my honest opinion we have good chances of hitting the 4k mark but offcorse if the economy improves and companies regain profit making trends

my 2 zim cents

Its just me whatever choice you make in life make sure that you can live with it.
sheep
#4 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 9:54:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
What we are seeing here is market capitulation...no willing sellers or buyers...time to get in and play long...as long as companies continue making profits.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
reithi
#5 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 10:57:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 75
Lets start by listing the challenges facing the market in
the order of its weight;


1. Prevailing political uncertainity after the 2007 debacle.

2. Failure to institute political and land reforms to fix 1.

3. Food,power and water crisis.

4. Low investor confidence after collapse of brokers.

5. To a lesser extent,the global financial meltdown.


Since political class on both sides prefer to maintain the status quo,1 and 2 are unlikely to be addressed by 2012,if ever. The crisis management attempts to sort 3 will mean more expensive power,less water and food,therefore we shall a less competitive investment destination,for both local and foreign investors. In fact,it creates an opportunity for a small group who-is-who to profit from the situation. On 4,CMA has taken the right steps to rein in brokers but we are still far away from restoring confidence.


In my humble opinion,the market will head further south as we approach 2012.
mv ufanisi
#6 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 1:47:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
Imagine the NSE at 1500 points in 2012

Equity at 7.00 Kshs
Mumias at 3.50 Kshs
SCOM at 2 Kshs

It doesn't look likely but could happen. Currently a lot of what could go wrong is going wrong. Kenyans seem to be most unlikely to prevent disaster. In 2012 there will be looming anxieties fueled by the risk of ethnic violence - if we degenerate to complete lack of law and order,there is likely to be a massive loss of confidence not only in the NSE but in Kenya as a country.
wa P
#7 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 2:57:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 326
Location: Nairobi
2010 could breath some life into NSE as some factors affecting economy today gets mitigated. 1. el nino brings good harvest,2. a dull year politically as goons position for 2012,hence good for business,3. economic crisis dissipates and investments (short term) increases.

By 2011any bad thing that can happen to NSE will happen. Time to get into medium/ long haul during 2011 expecting any ROI during 2014.

2012 - polls fear and uncertainty could drive NSE index to sub- 1500. After polls (and most likely nothing happens) we could see investors crawling from under the rock.
I wrote this under influence...

Healthy eating = nutritious urine. Nyama choma anytime!
Mainat
#8 Posted : Thursday, September 17, 2009 7:27:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Two things will be key.


Investor confidence which is driven by hope for the future. So the question is where is hope? Hope in Kenya is driven by economy (see 2) which may turn; politics-will if anything get worse as all eyes turn to 2012 succession (will Gen Kig succeed in pushing his term out by a couple of yrs?) and the general well-being based on things like crime,corruption,inflation et al...
Economy: El nino (if it does turn up),will allivaite the power,water and food issue. So that means 2010 will be better. The NSE like all markets looks forward 8-9 months and I'd see it rise in 2010 but set off in early 2011 as we've opined.


www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Much Know
#9 Posted : Thursday, September 17, 2009 10:17:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,588
@reithi....i wonder what makes you say 'to a lesser extent the global financial meltdown'.....isn't it obvious yet to you that this is the single most significant factor in NSE

I am a general consultant,specializing in all areas.
Ras Kienyeji Man
mv ufanisi
#10 Posted : Thursday, September 17, 2009 10:47:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
If you map the NSE index with major world indeces you'll see the obvious correlations. Now that we have a recovery in the major world indexes we might begin to see an improvement in this bourse as well.
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