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How to tell NSE has bottomed out

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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic		#921 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 9:49:16 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli		the deal wrote: Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: BTW,a 25 point fall tomorrow would see us break the Sept 6 bottom of 3357pts! From there,only God knows where it'll settle! Eliot wave says the 2nd wave should not fall below the 1st wave...if that 3357 was the bottom like u say..which I strongly refuted and still refute...we just had a bounce for 4 days & people started screaming we have a bottom...i will have to look at the charts to see which wave is this...if its the first of another 9 wave cycle then definitely we will see 3000 or sub 3000 before year end but if its the the 2nd wave of the bottom and then it falls below 3357 then it means the bottom has been broken...but if we bounced back and rally past 3507 then we might say we have a bottom...but bloomberg is saying todays close is the 52 week low so which is which??? True, Bloomberg is correct on 52 weeks low, but to be precise, the last time the index was below 3,500 points before we got here was Jan 14th 2010. So between Oct 30th 2008 and Jan 14th 2010, the index was below 3,500 pts, i.e 15 months. Technically speaking, we could be sub 3,500 for the next 15 months, or more! It's happened before, 2001-2002, and then 2008-2009! It can happen again! @SufficientlyP
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic		#922 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 9:52:31 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,225 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli		jerry wrote: Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote: cnn wrote: The NSE index down to 3383. And still 1,000 points above March 2009 lows! and about 1,300pts below what it was on 5th Aug-10. Correct! @SufficientlyP
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Cde Monomotapa		#923 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 10:29:39 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964		Can it to get to 2,500 ASAP so as to plant for the next harvest! Nkt!
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youcan'tstopusnow		#924 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:51:03 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa		Cde Monomotapa wrote: Can it to get to 2,500 ASAP so as to plant for the next harvest! Nkt! NSE 20-share index shed 21.76 points to close at 3,361.51 GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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mlennyma		#925 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:59:43 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi		Until the ksh.stabilises enter this counters with caution:-all bank stocks,total,kk,e.a cables,neveready. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Cde Monomotapa		#926 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 5:03:10 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964		youcan'tstopusnow wrote: Cde Monomotapa wrote: Can it to get to 2,500 ASAP so as to plant for the next harvest! Nkt! NSE 20-share index shed 21.76 points to close at 3,361.51 \n/ i'd like to be planted before the Oct-Dec short rains!!!
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Sober		#927 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 6:34:20 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/27/2007 Posts: 3,604		Could someone please rwmind me where the index was in January 2008. African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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hisah		#928 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 7:33:50 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Sober wrote: Could someone please rwmind me where the index was in January 2008. Since you didn't specify a date I'll give you a few. Jan 1 2008 - 5167 Jan 30 2008 - 4690 Just to see where NSE is post Lehman and after PEV. Oct 24 2008 - 3373 Nov 28 2008 - 3386 Dec 18 2008 - 3367 Jul 3 2009 - 3381 Jul 7 2009 - 3359 Jan 12 2010 - 3344 Therefore if NSE index was tradable like the futures index market, if a you got in Oct 2008 as long term investor, your gains would be nil after 34 months. I am sure those who got into those 'well managed' equity funds aka unit trust in 2008 have not only lost their initial capital, but are just pissed off and tired of the long wait. Are we going to see another mutual fund redemption parade from tired investors? Yes we are... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah		#929 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 7:47:55 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		With NSE closing @3361 tomorrow will confirm if the pin off @3357 is broken. A close @3300 or lower depending on the selling pressure will negate a double bottom and open up a test of 3000 in coming weeks. But from the current structure, I'll safely exit the mpesa bet with zero gains minus commission. No need forcing trades. Britank dead cat bounce is now on reversal. @mlenny and PPT have jumped ship without alerting the rest! This reversal will test and break 5.35. @Ali baba - Please buy now then I short sell your holdings KK - finally closes below 10/- It has been really stellar at holding that handle. Next 9.50 before 9. Those expecting 11 - 12, keep holding BBK - to test sub 11 by next week. That supply side is here to stay. AK - @QW - I never thought I'd say this, but 5 is too much a 5 star for it, sub 5 soon... Kengen - @cde - sub 9/- is coming. Sasini - finally mid 12. I want to see how the buyer handle it at these levels to confirm if 14 is still a solid barrier. Sub 12, will mean 14 remains intact until further notice... Scangroup has now popped up my radar after breaking below 38. Going lower and might test 30. And finally tranny - still no floor just like NBK. By Friday index close we will know if we are back to weekly selling... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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QW25081985		#930 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 8:48:17 PM
Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani		hisah wrote: Sober wrote: Could someone please rwmind me where the index was in January 2008. Since you didn't specify a date I'll give you a few. Jan 1 2008 - 5167 Jan 30 2008 - 4690 Just to see where NSE is post Lehman and after PEV. Oct 24 2008 - 3373 Nov 28 2008 - 3386 Dec 18 2008 - 3367 Jul 3 2009 - 3381 Jul 7 2009 - 3359 Jan 12 2010 - 3344 Therefore if NSE index was tradable like the futures index market, if a you got in Oct 2008 as long term investor, your gains would be nil after 34 months. I am sure those who got into those 'well managed' equity funds aka unit trust in 2008 have not only lost their initial capital, but are just pissed off and tired of the long wait. Are we going to see another mutual fund redemption parade from tired investors? Yes we are... even better http://www.bloomberg.com...uote?ticker=KNSMIDX:IND
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