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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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Cde Monomotapa
#321 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 1:42:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
If KCB doesn't make a colossal amount off this currency madness in Q3...i'll @>£€.

They wont as well as most banks due to their bond traps. Unless most hide their tradable bonds to hold to maturity to hide the current losses. Banks stocks were a sell this year and they still are a sell!

what does handling forex tranx @ a comish by this merchant bank have to do with bonds again?
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hisah
#322 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 1:42:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=hisah]Listen to this and listen good...

http://www.youtube.com/w...feature=player_embedded[/quote]

The trader being interviewed by BBC in the video above resides here - http://www.leadingtrader.com/

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#323 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 1:48:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
the deal wrote:
The thoughts of forex controls are premature cos CBK does not have the resources to support such initiatives I.e for the Shilling to stay at a certain band towards the $$$ CBK needs to keep selling USD to willing buyers to mantain the demand-supply equilibrium...do they have the reserves for that?

Cap it at 50 bob and that'l make a technical cover of 8 month import cover. Finance essential goods & services with that. Anyone in need of a plasma or HD TV or another Probox can go to the bank.

Lol thats not possible ..for that to happen CBK should start by buying all the Shilling in circulation...that means starving the banks of liquidity...so the guy u r reffering t o the bank might get that loan at 100% interest rates...why do u think the Zim $ is no more? Unless u are saying we burry the Shilling smile

The banks and other oppurtunists are trading with their own (clients) USDs not CBK's so I don't see a problem. They should stick to fundamental banking.
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kizee1
#324 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 2:07:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
price controls? are u freaking kiddin me? that will take us to 200
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the deal
#325 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 2:12:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
How about politicians bringing home their ill gotten wealth...don't you think he can accept a fat retirement cheaque...i mean 2012 is just here...smile
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selah
#326 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 2:25:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
The shilling will continue getting a beating as long as everyone is watching it creating a frenzy that is building up every minute.

This kind of frenzy attracts speculators who were not even interested in the first place and currency arbitrage become a common thing and since this attack is beyond CBK's control then unless treasury intervenes with policies that will calm the market this frenzy is going to be costly indeed.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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KulaRaha
#327 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 2:37:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
CBK now says it will sell dollars directly to customers, cutting off banks.

Hilarious.

Bank should now stop lending to the said custys and ask them to borrow from CBK too.

Digging a hole with a shovel!
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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Mainat
#328 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 2:44:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Significantly its now attracting hotmoney kabisa i.e. nothing to do with fundamentals.
Ndungu has two solutions
-Increase CBR to 10-12% to align with tbills/bonds
-Hit that discount window up again. But we know where that us last time and in any casse the money coming is from hot money so may not be impacted by this.

OR, go hard against this trend and either
-Peg Ksh to USD and a given rate of say Ksh90, but hard to do without the USD reserves.
-FX controls for 6-12 months limiting USD already in from going out...my recommendation
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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selah
#329 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 3:24:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Quote:
-FX controls for 6-12 months limiting USD already in from going out...my recommendation


@Mainat this is the best option currently.Raising interest rates is not wise since it will make borrowing too costly.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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hisah
#330 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 3:39:11 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Mainat - as long as CBK keeps showing up to the battlefield with a penknife, the booms will keep on raining...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#331 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 3:39:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
selah wrote:
Quote:
-FX controls for 6-12 months limiting USD already in from going out...my recommendation


@Mainat this is the best option currently.Raising interest rates is not wise since it will make borrowing too costly.

It won't work we are talking of a net importer here...btwn limiting $ outflow will just end up making the situation worse than hiking CBR..cause prices of imports to spike up cos getting the $ will come at a premium......me and @Hisah will be changing the Shilling in the black market at 500 and become instant millionaires...hiking CBR to 10% like @mainat says is the only option one has to curb that money supply...
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'user'
#332 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 3:42:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
Guys are now talking here .Please continue putting the options .Im sure we have some CBK guys here.
Its is possible that CBK has run out of Ideas and decided to let fate take its course .
Liwe liwalo na kama mbaya mbaya.
I can see despair and hopelessness written all over by CBK
2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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selah
#333 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:07:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
Now lets say CBK increases its CBR so it tightens liquidity i.e the supply of KSh in the market but thats not the only reason the shilling is loosing its value is it? the $ is in high demand just as @the deal said due to us being net importers so even if the rate is increased the $ demand will continue rising.

So to mitigate against FDI being diverted to Forex trading for arbitrage purposes @Mainat proposal of putting a limit to trading on FDI should be put in place..I hear Chile used this rule to bring speculators in check.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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hisah
#334 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:19:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Just to visualize the USDKES carnage since the Lehman bust...

Graph courtesy of Reuters.



http://blogs.reuters.com...gerthanthekenyashilling/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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KulaRaha
#335 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:23:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Shilling had a relief rally on the back of news CBK will now be a forex dealer to corporates.

102.60 levels.

Where next?
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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mkonomtupu
#336 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:34:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
'user' wrote:
Guys are now talking here .Please continue putting the options .Im sure we have some CBK guys here.
Its is possible that CBK has run out of Ideas and decided to let fate take its course .
Liwe liwalo na kama mbaya mbaya.
I can see despair and hopelessness written all over by CBK


why should we assist the CBK i thought we hire the smartest brains and pay them top dollar/shilling to think and come up with ideas, now if they run of ideas and they start telling to wait for the rain, we get a new team... results or resign!! ama...
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Ali Baba
#337 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:36:35 PM
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Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
USER & CO: The Ksh will be a basket case like the Zimbabwe dollar.Tomorrow I'm converting all my Ksh into USD.
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Cde Monomotapa
#338 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:46:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Eerr pple let's be clear about the difference btwn FDI & Portfolio (in-outflows). FDI is physical foriegn investment that pays rent & creates jobs e.g Google Ke, Microsoft, Unilever Ke, KFC Ke, BBK, SCBK e.t.c Foreign PORTFOLIO flows is what we see in & out our stock & bonds market. Thank you, you are most welcome.
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Cde Monomotapa
#339 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:50:41 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[quote=hisah]Just to visualize the USDKES carnage since the Lehman bust...

Graph courtesy of Reuters.



http://blogs.reuters.com...erthanthekenyashilling/[/quote]
Q.E 1, Q.E 2. Thank you Mr. Obama for this and still ur stimulus package didn't create American jobs. Even our Kazi Kwa Vijana was more effective Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly happy retirement post-2012.
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'user'
#340 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 4:53:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
KulaRaha wrote:
Shilling had a relief rally on the back of news CBK will now be a forex dealer to corporates.

102.60 levels.

Where next?



Changed at some dollars at 103.5 at 2.30.pm wasnt happy even though I was receiving the 'worthless piece paper'.
2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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