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12-Year Infrastructure Bond
lennz
#41 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2011 2:24:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/13/2009
Posts: 35
Mainat wrote:
the deal wrote:
Well @Len why not buy the bonds now and then dump them when the interest cycle turns? Then go into stocks...there is money to be made I agree!!!!

you try and liquidate only to find it has a 10% discount
hisah-http://www.knbs.or.ke/


@Mainat .....I agree but u liquidate when the times and market conditions are favorable preferably when rates take a down turn.
The only place where dreams are impossible is your mind
lennz
#42 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2011 2:30:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/13/2009
Posts: 35
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Infrastructure (bond)=development (not recession) the very 1st ones ranged 12-14% and maan...the roads e.t.c are good!!



Study those graphs and try to project 2012, then you'll see what I mean with or without infrastructure bonds.

GDP Quarterly Growth Rate = http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/gdp-growth

GDP Annual Growth Rate = http://www.tradingeconom...kenya/gdp-growth-annual

Balance of Trade = http://www.tradingeconom.../kenya/balance-of-trade

Current account = http://www.tradingeconom...m/kenya/current-account

Current account to GDP = http://www.tradingeconom.../current-account-to-gdp

Government budget = http://www.tradingeconom...kenya/government-budget

Imports = http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/imports

Exports = http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/exports

Inflation rate...


It is unfortunate or deliberate that gubberment has no stats on jobless rate.

Please don't get me wrong about the negative KE stats, but the facts have to be presented as they are.

If you need to check further details, you can start here - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/indicators

Which other site has KE econ stats other than CBK which is very scanty. Is there any info from Treasury or Investment committee/policy body on the public domain?



@hisah dude i need time to fo through all these links but i like the zeal. You could get comprehensive economic and market statistics/information from a site i will be sharing soon.
This link could offer some info http://www.treasury.go.ke/
The only place where dreams are impossible is your mind
the deal
#43 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 2:30:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
lennz wrote:
Mainat wrote:
the deal wrote:
Well @Len why not buy the bonds now and then dump them when the interest cycle turns? Then go into stocks...there is money to be made I agree!!!!

you try and liquidate only to find it has a 10% discount
hisah-http://www.knbs.or.ke/


@Mainat .....I agree but u liquidate when the times and market conditions are favorable preferably when rates take a down turn.

The 91 T-Bills at 13% a.k.a as the Tablet is sweet...if u trade in it 4X in a year...u will forget about this bear run at the NSE smile
Scubidu
#44 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 6:03:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
lennz wrote:
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Infrastructure (bond)=development (not recession) the very 1st ones ranged 12-14% and maan...the roads e.t.c are good!!



Study those graphs and try to project 2012, then you'll see what I mean with or without infrastructure bonds.

GDP Quarterly Growth Rate = http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/gdp-growth

GDP Annual Growth Rate = http://www.tradingeconom...kenya/gdp-growth-annual

Balance of Trade = http://www.tradingeconom.../kenya/balance-of-trade

Current account = http://www.tradingeconom...m/kenya/current-account

Current account to GDP = http://www.tradingeconom.../current-account-to-gdp

Government budget = http://www.tradingeconom...kenya/government-budget

Imports = http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/imports

Exports = http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/exports

Inflation rate...


It is unfortunate or deliberate that gubberment has no stats on jobless rate.

Please don't get me wrong about the negative KE stats, but the facts have to be presented as they are.

If you need to check further details, you can start here - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/indicators

Which other site has KE econ stats other than CBK which is very scanty. Is there any info from Treasury or Investment committee/policy body on the public domain?



@hisah dude i need time to fo through all these links but i like the zeal. You could get comprehensive economic and market statistics/information from a site i will be sharing soon.
This link could offer some info http://www.treasury.go.ke/


I always thought tradingeconomics simply sourced from IMF/World Bank. In any case I used to hear KIPPRA had stats on jobless rate. But apparently, know one was really interested and they also decided they wouldn't bother updating.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Cde Monomotapa
#45 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 7:26:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Mmmm...thanks @hisah. Well nothing new there i.e that Kenya is net exporter and that when we have drought and have to import food the current a/c gap widens, and when oil is high internationally it adds to that and we are a developing country and we need to import capital goods (hence the infra-structure bonds.)

Events out of our control that add to pressure are like ccy attacks/speculation and volatile global forex rate crosses.

With good rains we plug food-imports so that is short-term. International Oil markets will fall for sure so that's short-term too.

The above will take care of ccy attacks/speculations (anticipated import demand)so this shouldn't last long as well.

What will remain for the long-run is importation of capital/infrastructure goods.

That's the one-side picture, wish we had good figure for inflows.



Cde Monomotapa
#46 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 7:38:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The interesting part is that there is no shortage of FX in Kenya from the forex bureau ya mwananchi to commercial banks for our corporates. Why the mkt is acting as if there is one, I don't know but let the illusion be solved soon.
Cde Monomotapa
#47 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 8:28:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Good to note that agric.accounts for 70% of the incomes in KE. Let it rain smile
Frangipani
#48 Posted : Friday, October 28, 2011 6:12:21 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/14/2011
Posts: 31
Location: Nairobi

I'm considering investing in the on-going 12-Year Infrastructure Bond soon as it suits my personal circumstances. Am not very familiar with Bonds although I have learned a lot in this thread. This might sound elementary but I'm wondering what interest rate should I place my bid at? I know that the average rate for the last auction was just over 16% but that was before the interest rate hike by CBK. I would like to place a realistic bid but obviously one that also takes into account the increasing rates. Any suggestions please?

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