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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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hisah
#151 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:00:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:


@hisah. Why are you shorting KES? Speculating or is there something fundamental? If there's a fundamental reason then will the raising of cbr by say 400bps be adequate for you to unwind your position?

I think they let the chips fall over the last few weeks and you saw the effect on money markets. That can't be desirable. I agree with you on rising the cbr but not as sharply as most have called for.


When central planners are disorganized there is an opportunity for money to be made. High inflation from oil & lowering of the CBR was quite senseless a move. When I saw USDKES point to 90 on the charts, the trade was made. Alykhan still sees 100 - likely to be tested. Depending on how euroland deals with the default of Greece & others, that USDKES could fly to 120 as money piles on the dollar (short term). Back in Jan - Mar, CBK had a chance to hike rates, but decided on pep talk & soft hikes. Now they face global debt market forces. Too late for real action to be in full control. Look at the gok t-bill rates. Does that imply any confidence on the regulator? Money has no morals... And the scenario would have been worse if they had floated a eurobond.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:03 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#152 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:16:34 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
msaliti7 wrote:
@Monomotapa you have nailed it today..I have been reading this blog as a form of 'entertainment' and to be honest I am impressed by the level of insight wazuans demonstrate,the only downside is that one gets the impression that Wazuans have a short-term/pessimistic view in almost every active thread.Go long on Kenya/Africa and start pricing in the future macro growth prospects once we skin this bear!

Definitely we will be here for a looong time i.e. investing in KE. 1st world will slowdown for decades like the lost decades of Japan.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#153 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:20:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries.
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hisah
#154 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:28:01 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries.

EMs are very 'risky' due to cannibals, diseases & wild animals roaming in the streets & grasslands as per 1st world thinking...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#155 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:36:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries.

EMs are very 'risky' due to cannibals, diseases & wild animals roaming in the streets & grasslands as per 1st world thinking...

hahaha..the realization to the contrary is coming soon and i'm patiently positioned to trap part of the avalanche Portfolio and FDI flows that will come into Frontier Markets of SSA. That way we'll re-hab ourselves from donor funding to a great extent!! smile
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Cde Monomotapa
#156 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:42:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
I find it funny when they still say emerging markets are risky to date LoL! Now BRICS are mulling a Euro bail out or is it buy-out. From China towns to China countries.

EMs are very 'risky' due to cannibals, diseases & wild animals roaming in the streets & grasslands as per 1st world thinking...

hahaha..the realization to the contrary is coming soon and i'm patiently positioned to trap part of the avalanche Portfolio and FDI flows that will come into Frontier Markets of SSA. That way we'll re-hab ourselves from donor funding to a great extent!! smile

@hisah that is when the Nairobi International Financial Centre will realize its utility ;-)
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FUNKY
#157 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 7:57:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
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Cde Monomotapa
#158 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 8:09:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
FUNKY wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/CBK+faces+tough+choices+in+bid+to+stabilise+shilling+stop+/-/539552/1235848/-/t9fpm4/-/index.html

I urge the CBK to do all in its power to support domestic demand and economic activity as we have far more control over that than the feed-ins from abroad. Let's see.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 8:11 AM | Reason: Not specified
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#159 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 10:19:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
What a Great thread this is turning out to be.
Me thinks MPCs decision not to hike the CBR earlier on in the year was a gamble they made expecting supply will increase and tame inflation. Well that never happened and now we have yeilds in excess of 10% while CBR is still at 6.25!!!
Anyway, what's the latest from their (MPC) meeting today?
BTW, a hike in CBR by more than 200 basis points will wipe away any gains made/to be made in Equities!
@SufficientlyP
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kizee1
#160 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 10:36:05 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
the b in cbr shud stand for baseless
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