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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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hisah
#131 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 2:13:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
CDE-yes it did this morning. Distributed $s to select number of dealers (info picked up on twirrer and confirmed by the chart http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes)...

Rather than CBK waste those dollars on micro interventions, I propose they use these dollars to head to SNB and BoJ for intervention lessons. I think this way the dollars will be better put into use... Even with the bad karma in euroland, ECB had no choice but hiked rates! KE has an inflation rate 3 times above the 5% CBK target and they expect the CBR to remain at single digits. Idiots! Those 4 banks should just bet all in and put sizable shorts on KES positions to force CBK to hike the CBR. If they forgot their inflation control mandate, then someone can push them to a sharp reminder... We don't need prezo statements as a financial instrument. Just hike that damn CBR and let the chips fall into place. Obviously GDP will slowdown whether this is done or not. So why the pretext. What is the benefit so far? Has it made things better?

Hike the CBR and some of us will stop shorting KES.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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FUNKY
#132 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 2:23:41 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
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the deal
#133 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 2:35:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hiking interest rates will just trigger a mad rush for bonds and tank equities...NSE is the loser....CBK might have left things too late if you factor in the current Euro Zone crisis even a 200 basis point hike might not help...risk aversion is the new normal http://contrarianinvesti...ial-crisis-of-1997.html

On the other hand pray for China to save Europe...
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mkonomtupu
#134 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 3:46:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
CBK should hike the rates lets go into bonds, for those of us in business we are feeling the impact of slump, fewer clients, delayed payments not even sure i can retain my staff beyond December, workers want salary hikes at a time when things are thick, this is the season when you start summary dismissals otherwise the business wont survive
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hisah
#135 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 7:57:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mkonomtupu - Too late to prepare for recession. It is already there as per your description. Plan for extend overdrafts from your bankers.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Scubidu
#136 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 9:41:13 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
CDE-yes it did this morning. Distributed $s to select number of dealers (info picked up on twirrer and confirmed by the chart http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes)...

Rather than CBK waste those dollars on micro interventions, I propose they use these dollars to head to SNB and BoJ for intervention lessons. I think this way the dollars will be better put into use... Even with the bad karma in euroland, ECB had no choice but hiked rates! KE has an inflation rate 3 times above the 5% CBK target and they expect the CBR to remain at single digits. Idiots! Those 4 banks should just bet all in and put sizable shorts on KES positions to force CBK to hike the CBR. If they forgot their inflation control mandate, then someone can push them to a sharp reminder... We don't need prezo statements as a financial instrument. Just hike that damn CBR and let the chips fall into place. Obviously GDP will slowdown whether this is done or not. So why the pretext. What is the benefit so far? Has it made things better?

Hike the CBR and some of us will stop shorting KES.



@hisah. Why are you shorting KES? Speculating or is there something fundamental? If there's a fundamental reason then will the raising of cbr by say 400bps be adequate for you to unwind your position?

I think they let the chips fall over the last few weeks and you saw the effect on money markets. That can't be desirable. I agree with you on rising the cbr but not as sharply as most have called for.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Cde Monomotapa
#137 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:01:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
KES has FAR much better economic fundamentals than any Western ccy right now & in the coming 10yrs and more. Its weakening baffles me and I believe that error will be corrected soon. Awaiting to confirm my hunch tomorrow that CBK has been dumping USDs for the Yuan smile
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:12 PM | Reason: Not specified
Cde Monomotapa
#138 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:10:43 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
In default we will accept a new KES/USD normal and grow from there the same way we did at 63 then 83. Nevertheless, I firmly believe the label "developing country" is the best status in the world economy, now & going-forward. SSA baby!!
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kizee1
#139 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:17:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
KES has FAR much better economic fundamentals than any Western ccy right now & in the coming 10yrs and more. Its weakening baffles me and I believe that error will be corrected soon. Awaiting to confirm my hunch tomorrow that CBK has been dumping USDs for the Yuan smile



cbk dumping usds? lol! heck they dont even have jpy in their basket! proff u dont even know wat ccys ur blotter contains
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kizee1
#140 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:26:13 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
CDE-yes it did this morning. Distributed $s to select number of dealers (info picked up on twirrer and confirmed by the chart http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes)...

Rather than CBK waste those dollars on micro interventions, I propose they use these dollars to head to SNB and BoJ for intervention lessons. I think this way the dollars will be better put into use... Even with the bad karma in euroland, ECB had no choice but hiked rates! KE has an inflation rate 3 times above the 5% CBK target and they expect the CBR to remain at single digits. Idiots! Those 4 banks should just bet all in and put sizable shorts on KES positions to force CBK to hike the CBR. If they forgot their inflation control mandate, then someone can push them to a sharp reminder... We don't need prezo statements as a financial instrument. Just hike that damn CBR and let the chips fall into place. Obviously GDP will slowdown whether this is done or not. So why the pretext. What is the benefit so far? Has it made things better?

Hike the CBR and some of us will stop shorting KES.



@hisah. Why are you shorting KES? Speculating or is there something fundamental? If there's a fundamental reason then will the raising of cbr by say 400bps be adequate for you to unwind your position?

I think they let the chips fall over the last few weeks and you saw the effect on money markets. That can't be desirable. I agree with you on rising the cbr but not as sharply as most have called for.



i have been short kes since june, the 2 times i was long kes i made money for 2 sessions and lost money in seven...the weakness is structural and will take time to resolve, and knowin how kenyans never adress matters with a long term view we are headed for yet weaker lvls
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