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bonds investments
Scooby
#21 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 1:17:08 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hunderwear wrote:
maka wrote:
@ amolo which 30 year are you talking about the re-opening?and what happens when you re disount at such a time when rates are way up e.g the 30 year is currently trading at around 15.5%

pardon my ignorance but does it mean that if I buy the 30yr bond worth 100k I get 15500 every year?


Hunderwear,

In your scenario, there are two things to consider. Firstly, there is a straight 12% gross interest that you will be entitled to each year. That amount will fall to 10.8% after tax.

Secondly, since you bought the bond at a discount (i.e. less than face value), the value of your bond will gradually increase over time till it reaches face value on maturity. That's a form of "capital gain" should you decide to hold it to maturity.

You could then say that the 15.5% is then made up of the 12% interest and remainder as a capital gain.

As regards your question of when is the opportune time to buy the 30 year bond, I would advise that you hold out for a while till the movements in the yields kinda stabilise. Had you bought it at 16.3% yield, you would have lost 2.5% as of yesterday (i.e. Thursday). The yield on this month's auction for that bond was 18.8%.

Hope this helps


maka
#22 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 10:36:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Mach G wrote:
Yes - 15500 per year @15.5% interest but after taxes at 10% you get 13950 and since there will be two semi annual interest pmts you get 6975 every six months for 30 years

Even when the yields go up to 18% like in the case of the current year you will only get what the coupon offer i.e 12% for the said 30 year then you deduct the withholding tax...You dont get 15500 but 12000 kshs then you deduct the withholding tax...the 18% is the current market yield i.e the rate its trading at in the secondary market
possunt quia posse videntur
maka
#23 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 10:37:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
mauryc wrote:
how difficult is it to sell on the secondary market?i've heard of guys lamenting that they are unable sell..is there adequate demand?

Pretty difficult any amount less than 100 mio is considered as an odd lot.Banks usually trade in lots of 100 mio and above...
possunt quia posse videntur
kizee1
#24 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 4:00:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
a few years back we had an argument about the need for kenyan FI OTC market, many wazuans had issues with this now if indeed an OTC market (akin to say the FX mkt) no such thing as an odd lot wud exist and liquidity wud have been better..
Hunderwear
#25 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 8:26:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
maka wrote:
Mach G wrote:
Yes - 15500 per year @15.5% interest but after taxes at 10% you get 13950 and since there will be two semi annual interest pmts you get 6975 every six months for 30 years

Even when the yields go up to 18% like in the case of the current year you will only get what the coupon offer i.e 12% for the said 30 year then you deduct the withholding tax...You dont get 15500 but 12000 kshs then you deduct the withholding tax...the 18% is the current market yield i.e the rate its trading at in the secondary market

I reckon that I get 12000ksh. on getting the bond at the current market value(around 67) and not 100(par value).Is this the case?
maka
#26 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 12:15:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
a few years back we had an argument about the need for kenyan FI OTC market, many wazuans had issues with this now if indeed an OTC market (akin to say the FX mkt) no such thing as an odd lot wud exist and liquidity wud have been better..

Kizee 1 I agree during this years budget reading UK asked the CMA to expedit the process of forming some sort of hybrid bond market.So far it hasnt gone well with brokers who are making a killing out of trading.
possunt quia posse videntur
maka
#27 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 12:17:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Hunderwear wrote:
maka wrote:
Mach G wrote:
Yes - 15500 per year @15.5% interest but after taxes at 10% you get 13950 and since there will be two semi annual interest pmts you get 6975 every six months for 30 years

Even when the yields go up to 18% like in the case of the current year you will only get what the coupon offer i.e 12% for the said 30 year then you deduct the withholding tax...You dont get 15500 but 12000 kshs then you deduct the withholding tax...the 18% is the current market yield i.e the rate its trading at in the secondary market

I reckon that I get 12000ksh. on getting the bond at the current market value(around 67) and not 100(par value).Is this the case?

Yes but remember you would have bought the share at a disount,way cheaper...for every 100 you pay 67
possunt quia posse videntur
Hunderwear
#28 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 1:10:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
maka wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
maka wrote:
Mach G wrote:
Yes - 15500 per year @15.5% interest but after taxes at 10% you get 13950 and since there will be two semi annual interest pmts you get 6975 every six months for 30 years

Even when the yields go up to 18% like in the case of the current year you will only get what the coupon offer i.e 12% for the said 30 year then you deduct the withholding tax...You dont get 15500 but 12000 kshs then you deduct the withholding tax...the 18% is the current market yield i.e the rate its trading at in the secondary market

I reckon that I get 12000ksh. on getting the bond at the current market value(around 67) and not 100(par value).Is this the case?

Yes but remember you would have bought the share at a disount,way cheaper...for every 100 you pay 67

Noted.I SALUTE ALL OF YOU GUYS FOR YOUR KIND INFO.
Ali Baba
#29 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 3:09:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/29/2008
Posts: 571
Ksh100,000 is not money to be invested in bonds.If I were you;with inflation over 15%,I would buy some stocks at current prices.....or I would buy TUSKERS and forget I had it.
Hunderwear
#30 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 4:31:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
maka wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
maka wrote:
Mach G wrote:
Yes - 15500 per year @15.5% interest but after taxes at 10% you get 13950 and since there will be two semi annual interest pmts you get 6975 every six months for 30 years

Even when the yields go up to 18% like in the case of the current year you will only get what the coupon offer i.e 12% for the said 30 year then you deduct the withholding tax...You dont get 15500 but 12000 kshs then you deduct the withholding tax...the 18% is the current market yield i.e the rate its trading at in the secondary market

I reckon that I get 12000ksh. on getting the bond at the current market value(around 67) and not 100(par value).Is this the case?

Yes but remember you would have bought the share at a disount,way cheaper...for every 100 you pay 67

@Maka I just called suntra and they tel me the 30yr bond is going for 92 for every 100.How comes you say 67?
maka
#31 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2011 10:56:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Hunderwear wrote:
maka wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
maka wrote:
Mach G wrote:
Yes - 15500 per year @15.5% interest but after taxes at 10% you get 13950 and since there will be two semi annual interest pmts you get 6975 every six months for 30 years

Even when the yields go up to 18% like in the case of the current year you will only get what the coupon offer i.e 12% for the said 30 year then you deduct the withholding tax...You dont get 15500 but 12000 kshs then you deduct the withholding tax...the 18% is the current market yield i.e the rate its trading at in the secondary market

I reckon that I get 12000ksh. on getting the bond at the current market value(around 67) and not 100(par value).Is this the case?

Yes but remember you would have bought the share at a disount,way cheaper...for every 100 you pay 67

@Maka I just called suntra and they tel me the 30yr bond is going for 92 for every 100.How comes you say 67?


I was using an example...which was used previously...Btw on the last 30 year paper the highest bid recieved was for 16.99%.Competitive bids are for 20M upwards below is an example of how it would look like...

Issue # SDB1/2011/30
Issue Date 28-Feb-11
ISIN Code
Tenor @ Issue (Yrs) 30
Maturity 21-Jan-41
Coupon 12.000%
Value Date 30-Aug-11
Days to Maturity 10737
Yrs to Maturity 29.50
No of Remaining Int. Pay'ts 59
Days Held 183
No.of Cpns Paid 1
YTM 16.990%
Price per 100 70.9007
Accrued Interest (%) 0.0330
Clean Price per 100 70.8677

Face Value 20,000,000.00
Consideration 14,180,140.00
Comm. @ 0.035% 4,963.05

Total Cost 14,185,103.05




possunt quia posse videntur
shinski
#32 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:03:35 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 8/23/2011
Posts: 4

this is ruth from icea thankyou for the input on the bonds investment,food for thought :Drool for the new investors,this is the best time to buy bonds as you can buy them at a discount,but buy with a vision on long term investment of about three years and you will reap the benefits then
Scubidu
#33 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:31:34 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Scooby wrote:
Mauryc,

Most bond investors buy bonds with the intention of holding them to maturity. So incase one needs to sell the bond, the broker will look to "match" it with another order to buy.

Once that is done, the transaction is then reflected on the stock exchange. It's a kinda weird arrangement compared to shares.

Regards


Monsieur Scooby. Tell me more about the difference between held to maturity, held for trading and available for sale. And within the context of bond valuations.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#34 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:34:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
a few years back we had an argument about the need for kenyan FI OTC market, many wazuans had issues with this now if indeed an OTC market (akin to say the FX mkt) no such thing as an odd lot wud exist and liquidity wud have been better..


@kizee1. Why would liquidity be higher? You have just as much opportunity now to trade.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
kizee1
#35 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:55:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
a few years back we had an argument about the need for kenyan FI OTC market, many wazuans had issues with this now if indeed an OTC market (akin to say the FX mkt) no such thing as an odd lot wud exist and liquidity wud have been better..


@kizee1. Why would liquidity be higher? You have just as much opportunity now to trade.



u wud merely ask a maker for a price and he/she wud make u...now u hav to go thru a broker who weighs whether its worth while his/her while to trade in a small lot
Scooby
#36 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 10:38:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu wrote:
Scooby wrote:
Mauryc,

Most bond investors buy bonds with the intention of holding them to maturity. So incase one needs to sell the bond, the broker will look to "match" it with another order to buy.

Once that is done, the transaction is then reflected on the stock exchange. It's a kinda weird arrangement compared to shares.

Regards


Monsieur Scooby. Tell me more about the difference between held to maturity, held for trading and available for sale. And within the context of bond valuations.


Hi Scubidu,

Here are the definitions as you have requested.

Held to Maturity (HTM) - these are instances where one buys a bond with the intention of retaining it in your portfolio for good. A notable rationale for that is if one has a fixed duration liability hence you would like to engage in some bit of ALM (asset liability matching)

In such cases, one will recognise the initial cost of the bond, thereafter, at each year end (for instance) adjust the cost for any discount or premium till the value of that bond is equal to the face value of the bond.

Held for trading (HFT)- this catergory relates to speculative transactions per se. For instance, I could decide to sell all my bonds right now due to the rising yields...then buy them sometime next year when I think that the yields will have maxed out.

For this category, the value of the bond has to reflect the current market value - and the changes in the valuation have to pass through the profit and loss.

Available for sale (AFS). This category is abit similar to HTM except that an investor has the flexibility of selling the bond shoud the need arise. For instance, many banks were selling their bonds when the CBK was interfering with the discount window. Banks didn't have many options to get funds other than sell their bonds.

The bonds under this category should also reflect the market value. However, the changes are reflected through the balance sheet and not the income statement.

FYI, with the recent changes in accounting standards, the changes in value for AFS are reflected in the income statement in arriving at comprehensive income - but after net profits. HFT changes are reflected arriving at net profit.

Let me know if you need further clarification.

Cheers
Scubidu
#37 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 11:40:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
a few years back we had an argument about the need for kenyan FI OTC market, many wazuans had issues with this now if indeed an OTC market (akin to say the FX mkt) no such thing as an odd lot wud exist and liquidity wud have been better..


@kizee1. Why would liquidity be higher? You have just as much opportunity now to trade.



u wud merely ask a maker for a price and he/she wud make u...now u hav to go thru a broker who weighs whether its worth while his/her while to trade in a small lot


I do believe banks have that option now. They can negotiate directly, only have to go through a broker for execution and that's where the problem comes. I'm sure many banks are comfortable handling odd lots through the exchange, becoz they need the broker.

What do you think about primary dealership? Should all bankers be PDs so they could make market on a FI OTC market?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#38 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 11:43:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Scooby wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
Scooby wrote:
Mauryc,

Most bond investors buy bonds with the intention of holding them to maturity. So incase one needs to sell the bond, the broker will look to "match" it with another order to buy.

Once that is done, the transaction is then reflected on the stock exchange. It's a kinda weird arrangement compared to shares.

Regards


Monsieur Scooby. Tell me more about the difference between held to maturity, held for trading and available for sale. And within the context of bond valuations.


Hi Scubidu,

Here are the definitions as you have requested.

Held to Maturity (HTM) - these are instances where one buys a bond with the intention of retaining it in your portfolio for good. A notable rationale for that is if one has a fixed duration liability hence you would like to engage in some bit of ALM (asset liability matching)

In such cases, one will recognise the initial cost of the bond, thereafter, at each year end (for instance) adjust the cost for any discount or premium till the value of that bond is equal to the face value of the bond.

Held for trading (HFT)- this catergory relates to speculative transactions per se. For instance, I could decide to sell all my bonds right now due to the rising yields...then buy them sometime next year when I think that the yields will have maxed out.

For this category, the value of the bond has to reflect the current market value - and the changes in the valuation have to pass through the profit and loss.

Available for sale (AFS). This category is abit similar to HTM except that an investor has the flexibility of selling the bond shoud the need arise. For instance, many banks were selling their bonds when the CBK was interfering with the discount window. Banks didn't have many options to get funds other than sell their bonds.

The bonds under this category should also reflect the market value. However, the changes are reflected through the balance sheet and not the income statement.

FYI, with the recent changes in accounting standards, the changes in value for AFS are reflected in the income statement in arriving at comprehensive income - but after net profits. HFT changes are reflected arriving at net profit.

Let me know if you need further clarification.

Cheers


Great explanation as usual Scooby. So how flexible is it for a bank for example to move bonds within the different classifications. I heard about a bank who shifted in excess of 20b from one to another. Are the accountants strict on this?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#39 Posted : Sunday, September 11, 2011 10:43:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

Kindly provide us with more details so that I could give you a specific response to your concern. Otherwise, I'll try to guess where you are coming from...

Prior to the financial crisis, it was abit hard for an insitution to transfer its fixed income securities from one category to another as it would be punitive for them.

During the fincial crisis, this rule was kinda relaxed at the request of the G20 leaders who thought that such a move would ease the credit crisis. However, it made things worse as it contributed to the liquidity cruch.

Hence,I will be more worried if the transfer was from AFS or HFT to the Held to Maturity category as they could be attempting to avoid recongising significant unrealised losses in their books.

Hope this helps

Regards
kizee1
#40 Posted : Sunday, September 11, 2011 11:03:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
a few years back we had an argument about the need for kenyan FI OTC market, many wazuans had issues with this now if indeed an OTC market (akin to say the FX mkt) no such thing as an odd lot wud exist and liquidity wud have been better..


@kizee1. Why would liquidity be higher? You have just as much opportunity now to trade.



u wud merely ask a maker for a price and he/she wud make u...now u hav to go thru a broker who weighs whether its worth while his/her while to trade in a small lot


I do believe banks have that option now. They can negotiate directly, only have to go through a broker for execution and that's where the problem comes. I'm sure many banks are comfortable handling odd lots through the exchange, becoz they need the broker.

What do you think about primary dealership? Should all bankers be PDs so they could make market on a FI OTC market?


at the moment a bank must trade thru a bookie, bookies have no reason to offer value, in an OTC enviroment bookies are forced to do so, in say the FX space which is OTC ur not bound to use a bookie as u can call another maker direct however if the bookie offers u value eg by providing u with tighter spreads or with greater liquidity then u wud use said bookies services

as for pds, i think ideally banks only shud offer this service but then the whole suit of reforms is needed (ie move to otc plus allowing short selling)
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