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2 Year Fixed Coupon Bond Issue 3/2011/2

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MatataMingi		#1 Posted : Saturday, September 10, 2011 12:56:35 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 398 Location: Where everyone knows you		- Sale Period 9 Sep to 20 Sep - Value Date 26 Sep - Coupon Rate 10.50% What do you think will be the yield Consider the following: - Latest 91 day T Bill dated 12/9/11 had an average yield of 11.685% - Latest 364 day T Bill dated 12/9/11 had an average yield of 12.536% My guess that this will go for 13 to 14% Comments please
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guru267		#2 Posted : Saturday, September 10, 2011 5:21:00 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		MatataMingi wrote: - Sale Period 9 Sep to 20 Sep - Value Date 26 Sep - Coupon Rate 10.50% What do you think will be the yield Consider the following: - Latest 91 day T Bill dated 12/9/11 had an average yield of 11.685% - Latest 364 day T Bill dated 12/9/11 had an average yield of 12.536% My guess that this will go for 13 to 14% Comments please I thought the 10.5% was fixed?? 2 years from now will be 2013.. after 2012 the risks associated with kenyan debt will go down hence the two year yield might not be very far from the 1 year paper. so if its a free rate I expect 11.5% on this one.. Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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MatataMingi		#3 Posted : Sunday, September 11, 2011 8:48:34 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 398 Location: Where everyone knows you		@ Guru, Thanks for your input. However, I have to disagree. As per my post the 364 day T -Bill ( 1`year ) went for 12.536 % I dont think the 2 year will go for less than that. The last 2 year bond dated 12/6/11 had a average yield of 12.684 % I am going to bid at 13% and see what hasppens. I will also bid at AVERAGE. It may be around 12.8 anyway. The money at at the momment is on the short term 91 day bills. The last one dated 12/9/11 had a yield of 11.685 % !!! I bid at 12 % and got it. CBK offered 2,000 and got bids for 8813. They ACCEPTED ALL. I think people how bid over 12 % must have got them. Anyway, thanks for your input. Much appreciated.
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maka		#4 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 9:35:33 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi		guru267 wrote: MatataMingi wrote: - Sale Period 9 Sep to 20 Sep - Value Date 26 Sep - Coupon Rate 10.50% What do you think will be the yield Consider the following: - Latest 91 day T Bill dated 12/9/11 had an average yield of 11.685% - Latest 364 day T Bill dated 12/9/11 had an average yield of 12.536% My guess that this will go for 13 to 14% Comments please I thought the 10.5% was fixed?? 2 years from now will be 2013.. after 2012 the risks associated with kenyan debt will go down hence the two year yield might not be very far from the 1 year paper. so if its a free rate I expect 11.5% on this one.. Indeed the 10.5% is fixed thats what you will be getting as your annual return dished out semi annually but for amounts above 20 million you can place a bid and I will agree with matatamingi it will definitely be above 11.5% the best way is to use rates on any paper having the same tenor as 3/2011/2 the current 2 year papers are trading at around 13% but there is an indication that rates are slowly coming down. possunt quia posse videntur
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MatataMingi		#5 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2011 10:37:08 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 11/17/2009 Posts: 398 Location: Where everyone knows you		@ Guru267 & Maka. I said between 13 & 14 % I bid at 13.5 and got it. I also bid at AVERAGE. Guess what. That was at 13.879% I am sure guys who bid 14% may have got it too. @Maka.You do not need above 20 milo to bid.
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Sure		#6 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2011 8:32:46 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2010 Posts: 546 Location: Garissa		MatataMingi wrote: @ Guru267 & Maka. I said between 13 & 14 % I bid at 13.5 and got it. I also bid at AVERAGE. Guess what. That was at 13.879% I am sure guys who bid 14% may have got it too. @Maka.You do not need above 20 milo to bid. Lets face the music and dance. If you get the bonds at 14% and inflation is at 17%, you are simply ensuring your 100000 has a value of 97000. Is that a sign of being smart? Cash, as we are talking now, is KING. Hold your cash and wait for an opportune time to make the move, when there is blood on the streets, unless you are sure of being able to dispose off those bonds at the spar of the moment. Kash is King! Wisdom to detect when share prices hit rock bottom. When interest on bonds keep going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the bear has met the bull and they have hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, the bull has overpowered the bear and you better be riding the bull.
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