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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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QW25081985
#676 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:35:51 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
Sober wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Analysts are saying stocks have bottomed but am telling them their guess is just like mine not yet i need more blood.


when the index hit 3500 i though we were there only to be surprised by a new low. i am now confused and treat every week as a lowest. look at Total Kenya or Pan Africa and you understand what i am saying.


@ sober . you just made my ay , lol . you want to tell me everyday you wake up you think we will bottom , lol . You need to learn even if alittle bit of technical analysis . You are investing thousands upon thousand of you hard earned money in the market and you dare guess !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. No pun intended but thats pretty much careless investing !!!!
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QW25081985
#677 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:37:34 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
the deal wrote:
sparkly wrote:
the deal wrote:
To support my Safaricom bellweather theory...last time the NSE bottomed out was Jan 2009...the index was at 2300...Safaricom was at 2.53...the index then gained 1200 points to reach 3500 by October 2010...Safcom was at 5.95...the share seemed to peak at that level although the bourse went on to rally above 4000, the weakness in the momentum was there to see...if u remember there was a mini bear come Nov-Dec this was followed by a sharp rally in January where the NSE picked at 4600...Safaricom was at 4.70...since then Safaricom and NSE has never seen those levels again...so depending where Safaricom's out in the next few month or years thats where the NSE will bottom out...my 2 cents..

@Thedeal is it a case of safcom following the mkt, or the mkt following safcom?

Safcon is the trendsettersmile smile


why just safaricom ??? all stocks that are traded heavily by foreigners are good trendsetters .
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QW25081985
#678 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:54:50 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
hisah wrote:
@QW - finally AK prints 5.45. As expected that order @5.55 has been filled. Lower we go and I expect the order @5.30 to get filled.

@youcant - KCB closes below 19.50. Uptrend line broken! 18 coming soon... At least NSE can be said to have a target @3000, but NBK... Yawa! This one's hard to say if we are still in the sky and how high!

Centum still on a free-fall - I wonder what's with the spooking move...

SCB - finally sub 200... but the sista BBK has been hammered more.

Ekwety @18 - still no breaks.

HFCK - @15.65 still on freefall (almost 50%) dive from the 2011 high.

Coop - finally sub 14. Next stop 12... Banks and their cousins investment firms are taking it in the chin...

KK - as @aguy said closed @10 with a low of 9.80... people are still waiting for this counter to remain bullish smile profits were long take @12. I stated this when I started this thread. I expected total to bounce on the rotation, but Mr Market was spooked by the US downgrade. However, I expect total to bounce more than KK when the rebound comes since it is excessively sold than KK.

KPLC - @18.40 - well below the rights price @19.50

Olympia - soon to join mpesa at 2-3 range...

Speaking of mpesa, today there was a giant volume injection (88M). In 2 days the volume now stands at 122M. This one is building a floor... I don't think such volume is last minute dash for dividends book closure. Very limited downside here. I'd be shocked to see 2.50 broken. Though a break would be welcome.

TA fans check the long term SMA's clustering together, if that 50SMA cross the 200SMA, kwisha - cross of death i.e. very bearish... But the RSI is very oversold.

Interesting to note that the French index (CAC) is almost like NSE in terms of the SMA clustering...

9 months NSE chart - courtesy mystocks.co.ke

http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I




No no no no . let me correct you there . Co-ops next stop is ipo price of 9.50 with the break of 14.00 thats how bearish it is. i amnt moved by safaricom before book closure if this buying is real lets wait and see if it'll be there after book closure.
Equity still has to print my 13.00 price they will buy to lock in the bargain..
as for access kenya i was targeting 3.00 but with volumes of even 10k per day my dream isnt coming.
for KK a close below 10.00 anything goes even those who are calling for 8.00 might get it ..
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vestor
#679 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:33:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/9/2010
Posts: 132
If M-PESA is a trendsetter, are we about to turn around or is this the lull before a storm ? There are no offers on this counter, and the highest bid is at 3.20
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QW25081985
#680 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:35:30 PM
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Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
vestor wrote:
If M-PESA is a trendsetter, are we about to turn around or is this the lull before a storm ? There are no offers on this counter, and the highest bid is at 3.20


think book closure , my friend .
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hisah
#681 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 4:07:36 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@NSE closes @3360 - up a measly +3pts...

Anyone noticed tranny has moved 6.9M shares today?

Mpesa - mad rush for book closure or a turn up? QW - says a mad rush to dividends. Me thinks it is a shaping for a u-turn... 3 day volume = 146M shares and Meza joining the rivals in Vodacom Tz (Vodafone owned) confirms the move. Next confirmation will be Airtel not launching their delaaaayed 3G network... Wacha tuone.

Now tomorrow is britak listing. Mpesa moving huge volumes so far and tranny has a giant volume move out of the blue. Britak will open with a jump... That's the telegraphed message here... Let's see what Mr Market will do tomorrow.

@QW - coop @9.50 will be a fabulous discount...

BBK - sub 12.

Ekwety - sub 18... This one has me puzzled since it exceeded my 20/- target...

KCB - day 2 below 19.50 bull trendline support... This thing needs to bounce or 18 will show up.

SCB - volume building up... @199 some hands are getting attracted while looking at the rights price @165.45. SCB @199 is 20.27% higher than the rights price.

With mpesa having a big up day with huge volume, the index will close up after 4 down days since Aug 30th. In coming days we will know if mpesa is on a relief u-turn and forming a temporary floor. With NSE index RSI oversold @13.6 as per yesterday's close of 3357, a bounce is loooong overdue... If indeed a bounce is forming and the low is 3357, then the rebound should target 3505 - 3552 levels.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#682 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 4:50:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Yep. Equity low of 17.50, Centum low of 14.60
Tranny moved 6.9 million shares? Slightly down though. Crazy P.E
KQ sub 30...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Sober
#683 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 5:54:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
TCL traded 6 million shares! who is buying???
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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hisah
#684 Posted : Thursday, September 08, 2011 7:36:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
More media market gloom smile

http://bit.ly/qANXWO
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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holycow
#685 Posted : Thursday, September 08, 2011 11:40:40 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
20 share index up 40 points.Pray
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QW25081985
#686 Posted : Thursday, September 08, 2011 11:49:03 PM
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Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
holycow wrote:
20 share index up 40 points.Pray


volume ??
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youcan'tstopusnow
#687 Posted : Thursday, September 08, 2011 11:52:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
holycow wrote:
20 share index up 40 points.Pray

And more importantly closes (just) above 3400 - 3,400.68
Will it be a green week for the NSE?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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youcan'tstopusnow
#688 Posted : Thursday, September 08, 2011 11:55:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
QW25081985 wrote:
holycow wrote:
20 share index up 40 points.Pray


volume ??


5,793,000 total shares traded

Equity turnover: KES 189.19 M

BAMB - 84.72 M
EABL - 24.55 M
COOP - 9.49 M
KENO - 8.65 M
KCB - 8.41 M
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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QW25081985
#689 Posted : Thursday, September 08, 2011 11:57:02 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
Lol ! I can see equity bank playing very nicely to my flute . My target is at 13 bob .
If you wanna buy at any other price well and gud but make sure u arent the one selling it to me at 13.00
for co-op am still waiting for 9.50 . But looks like its going to be hard getting there.
Am still nt done w/ the index . 3k is my target .
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QW25081985
#690 Posted : Friday, September 09, 2011 12:02:48 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
holycow wrote:
20 share index up 40 points.Pray


volume ??


5,793,000 total shares traded

Equity turnover: KES 189.19 M

BAMB - 84.72 M
EABL - 24.55 M
COOP - 9.49 M
KENO - 8.65 M
KCB - 8.41 M



but we have bn trading less than 10 m shares for quite a while now. Why the jump in price.
May be a dead cat bounce. If its a rally it definatly doesnt have legs. Guys i warn you before hand and get caught.
This isnt the time to buy .
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