@the deal please have your analysis reviewed before posting it..

It is mathematically impossible for investment income to fall 434%. if it is still positive which it is.

And unless you expect PAI to make a loss this year it is also mathematically impossible for a company to announce a 200% drop in earnings..

@QW defending @Guru...something must have happened...LOL...@guru catchy headlines do sell...they don't teach you that in economics school do they?...nothing wrong with my analysis...its world class...the best analysis in EA are found here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info well the PAI show rings alarm bells for JUB...lets wait for that 45 bob EPS of yours

Well @guru i'm aware of all Jub's investments...its a great company thats why its in my Nairobi20 Stock Index but still I say an EPS of Sh45 is an outlier...i can bet EPS will be stagnant or drop...those bonds will also be one of their undoing...when interest rates rise...bonds drop in value...well Bujagali has not reached its peak yet & with the prevailing drought in E.A. I don't their doing well...let me ask you, how much did the insurance business and subsidiaries contribute to Jub's bottomline in FY 2010?

well i'm not in UG so you are better informed on that front, if insurance and subsidiaries contributed only 25% to Jub's bottomline in 2010, then where did the rest(75%) come from? That's where intelligent investors like me start expressing doubts...i don't expect inflation to fall anytime soon (not in 2H of 2011) so those Jub bonds will continue to bleed...when Jub announce a drop in profits in April 2012 and the share is at Sh130 thats when I will buy to sell at Sh220...

@the deal there is a very clear reason why jubilee changed its name from jubilee insurance company to jubilee holdings limited.. It is not an insurance company but a HOLDING company that owns an insurance company and many others...

So the other 75% of the earnings in 2010 included 2.2billion in investment income from their various projects and 1.6billion in fair value gains of quoted shares..

Even if the fair value gains are not repeated in 2010 due to the poorly performing NSE I expect investment income and underwriting profits to soar like crazy and cover the loss from shares..

Please note the difference between fair value gains and investment income because they are not the same..

And yes, they can classify all their bonds as held to maturity and then their capital value remains the same no matter what..

Oh yeah are you aware that in 2010 bujagali contributed 100million to jubilee and the project hadnt even began operations yet?? I cant wait for the 2011 contribution..