I think we past the cycle of rushing to the outskirts because all what you calling outskirts is almost bought out and expensive how many of those in the "middle class" can afford space within TATU -if it will ever see the light of day- so probably those waiting to sell their tu-apartments will sell and move to shagz!

There will be 'lectric trains in Kenya, but there won't be no 'lectricity to run 'em

Actually, in 15 yrs you won't have paid half of the 30 yrs mortgage, as a matter of facts you'll have paid just about a third of your mortgage and with such inflated prices, plus high current interest rates compare to anticipated rates 10 yrs from now, The value of your house 15 yrs from now( including all mortgage payment you've made) might not be able to pay off the remaining 15 yrs on your 30yrs mortgage!

So someone is right when he/she suggest that a renter is smart in this case!

@ For sport,
...Right I was reading 30 yrs mortgage, but still the assumption that buying a house is always a winning bet is something that people sometimes irrationally hold onto, note that when you sign for a mortgage to buy a house, the bank is the investor and you are the borrow and you're only betting on capital appreciation.

First calculate the future value of 12% interest payment on your mortgage, 15 yrs from now, add all the expenses associated with owning a house together with the final investment you'll make 15yrs from now to get the house ready for sell, The interest alone will shock you!that is how much your house need to appreciate in order to break-even, just to break-even.

After that, look at the real estate industry and figure out the parity between Mortgage payments & rent payment and target market wages growth rates & propery prices, these parities will guide the decision to go long or short, short in this case is "not to buy."

My analysis tells me that renter is the smart one based on the current propery market situation and the opportunity cost associated with the disparity between mortgage payments and rent payment! In short, invest the difference between your rent payment and mortgage payment for 15 yrs and see how much it will turn out to be!