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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
Cde Monomotapa
#61 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 7:12:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Mainat wrote:
comrade-you are a proper communist. Bank stock is too expensive for any mergers to take place currently.
Have u thought of a move to Cuba/Venuzuela or the great Democratic People's Republic of Korea (aka North Korea)?

ati a communist? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly i'm a long investor and currency stability is important as it is a key input of production. Thus, speculation & gambling around it needs castration. I wish the same could apply to crude oil markets.
Cde Monomotapa
#62 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 7:24:33 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
kizee1 wrote:
interesting theory Mr KCB your darling bank's q2 liquidity was 20.7%, are you still holdin tite to it?

Yes I am still with KCB Group. At the close of Q2 KCB had 8B worth of available for sale assets so liquidity is no biggie. Also, the EAC Governments budget monies kicking in H2 should prop up deposits.
the deal
#63 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:13:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
One word for @Cde learn some basic accounting...t-bills are part of those liquidity ratio's...KCB is a bank living dangerously...thank God IFC gave them that ermegence loan...if there is any bank worsely affected by the tightening is KCB...i hear morgage rates will be up soon.
Cde Monomotapa
#64 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:16:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
One word for @Cde learn some basic accounting...t-bills are part of those liquidity ratio's...KCB is a bank living dangerously...thank God IFC gave them that ermegence loan...if there is any bank worsely affected by the tightening is KCB...i hear morgage rates will be up soon.

:-P
Cde Monomotapa
#65 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:23:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
It is interesting how an individual or groups would think that a senior-loan EXPRESSLY taken out to fund longterm business like mortgages and to a lesser extent SMEs would describe that as an EMERGENCY loan.
Cde Monomotapa
#66 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:28:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Their comprehension must be extremly flawed indeed.
the deal
#67 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:30:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Hahaha Mr KCB...tell us more...
Cde Monomotapa
#68 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:39:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Furthermore, such characters should've interested themselves on the features and intent of the senior loan which are readily available on the IFC website before rumbling out their skewed thoughts in public.
Cde Monomotapa
#69 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:41:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
VituVingiSana
#70 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 1:54:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,102
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
The CBK has re-inforced itself as the lender of last resort. The banks have been shaken. Sell ur t.bills,bonds & fx for liquidity before U come to us. Excellent, no more hustling on the trading desks. Go out, gather depos & make loans like a bank ought to. Survival will be for the fittest indeed.

In short, short them bank stocks smile

Especially those that tend to serve their foreign masters more than East Africans smile

Seems the one at risk is KCB. Equity also made 2x in forex trading but should be OK.

BBK & Citi seem safe.

Not sure about Co-op. I think they will do fine.

Now as for KCB... Low liquidity means expensive overnight borrowing!!!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#71 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 2:04:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@VVS and that is why the Governor stated sell ur t.bills,bonds or fx before u come to the window. To that effect KCB had 8B in assets ready for sale and a further 48B in bonds in their H1 results. I don't see a problem there. I have not been turned away at the counter while withdrawing cash. I hope nobody has. Furthermore, by the time KCB was releasing its H1 results, the ratio was already at 25%
kizee1
#72 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 3:24:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@VVS and that is why the Governor stated sell ur t.bills,bonds or fx before u come to the window. To that effect KCB had 8B in assets ready for sale and a further 48B in bonds in their H1 results. I don't see a problem there. I have not been turned away at the counter while withdrawing cash. I hope nobody has. Furthermore, by the time KCB was releasing its H1 results, the ratio was already at 25%



have u asked yourself what the cost of discounting GoK paper is? majority of KCBs paper is in HTM which cannot be sold without tainting the book?

and how did ndungu arrive at the conclusion that the solution was to hike rates, mkt is tight as hell(onite at +14%) but kes is still above 93!

hisah
#73 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 3:48:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:

and how did ndungu arrive at the conclusion that the solution was to hike rates, mkt is tight as hell(tonite at +14%) but kes is still above 93!


I find that USDKES cross very baffling indeed... Maybe ndungu should now throw one of the banks under the bus... but the ramifications to the banking sector and the econ would be very ugly.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#74 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 3:52:51 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
when all else fails use reserves for the purpose they are meant
Cde Monomotapa
#75 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 4:01:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
That's why there is a secondary market called the NSE and banks trade there everyday Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly what's all this storm in a tea cup.
kizee1
#76 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 4:20:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
That's why there is a secondary market called the NSE and banks trade there everyday Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly what's all this storm in a tea cup.



secondary market? whers the curve at the moment against where majority of banks got in? in which case ur darling KCB will take a major trading(bond) hit!
Cde Monomotapa
#77 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 5:11:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I am pleased to be the contrarian. Lets talk over Q3.
Cde Monomotapa
#78 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 5:19:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
NB: A portion of KCB's deposits are directly linked to the growth of the National Budget. Money is now flowing out of Treasurey into the State Agencies who also have accounts with KCB. Just watch how a consolidated and leaner KCB Group does its thing. Laughing out loudly
Scubidu
#79 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 11:22:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
tonicasert wrote:
I dont know how much CBK has been intervening with the KES losing so much ground.

Its interesting how SNB has been using swaps to intervene by pushing the swap points to the left and hence generating progressively more negative implied yields on the CHF, and maybe CBK could borrow a leaf and save depletion of reserves with spot interventions. This of course in addition to other tools like repos, window and CRR.


Interesting. Can you go into more detail. I'm curious about the changes in swap rates in the market currently given the hikes in o/n. I assumed the market was dry.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#80 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 11:49:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly go onto www.centralbank.go.ke and read the 3 circulars thereon. Don't rely on the papers. U will realise that the CBK is managing monetary policy by reinforcing itself as the lender of last resort by imposing a steep discount window rate to curb arbitage and also make it clear to banks that b4 they go to the window for liquidity, 1st consider selling ur t.bills, bonds and ESPECIALLY FOREX (held for speculation & gambling). Basically, what he is saying is...do what a bank is created to do and that is, raise deposits & make loans - simple. For that he has my full support.


When they began accomodating in mass earlier through the lender of last resort facility ... they should have known that once they opened that window wide ... any threat to it shutting down would only result in money mart rates being jacked up. They should know this and should remove the cbr peg or place a cap. And to the best of my knowledge liquidity is skewed and this is a problem that hasn't been solved.

No t.bills have been discounted so far, which would have been the easiest option @ 3% above market. Instead many banks opt for more expensive alternatives; bond portfolios are in the red, pricing in the swaps market can't be easy to do and hrt volumes are almost zero (even though they're collateralised). What happens if ur a small bank with few lines of credit?

It's the disharmony between fiscal/monetary policies that have created this problem. You'll find that fiscal policy will suffer as a result of the above move (let us see next week's auction). What we needed was the aggressive use of their signaling tool, the cbr.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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