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KenolKobil first HY 2011 pretax profit up 86%
For Sport
#221 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 8:57:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/23/2010
Posts: 1,229
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Most Wazuans forecast something or the other... Prices, forex, earnings, etc... So wanna ban us too?

LoL!! Real talk!

Before they get to us, they should ban the Kenyan Met department from forecasting rains or lack of them.
Gloomy forecasts, in whatever form affect the economy. If they say there will be poor rains, we begin to think about food production and electricity.
About how electricity costs will go up as KPLC resorts to thermal means of production (fuel)which is purchased by the almighty dollar..which we shall then hoard.
It also causes the government to start predicting shortfalls in food production (usually the cereal called maize) – leading to poorly though out solutions (e.g. allowing the importation of GMOs and creating opportunities for profiteering (e.g. the maize scandal

Then, when the Met department is wrong, the farmer looses big – imagine those tons of seed and fertilizer ($$$) buried in the soil waiting for rains that never come. The losses are usually HUGE. There’s even a time they tried to sue the met department

And while they're at it, lets ban freedom of information and freedom to express opinions. Better still, ban thinking.
Horton
#222 Posted : Tuesday, August 16, 2011 7:16:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
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Horton
#223 Posted : Tuesday, August 16, 2011 7:18:57 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
Well wazuans are INDIVIDUALS whereas KK is apparently, a seasoned player in this fuel retailing business. With all the experience, resources, formulae on pump prices and etc; they STILL can't forecast retail prices for the current month....not even by a long shot!!! I know alot of you probably don't wanna hear the following, but if KK are soo poor at forecasting simple pump prices(again part of core business) then I would be worried about their "forecasts" of crude prices and the stocks they hold at these levels and the write downs they might have to do jes incase there is another crash in commodities. Remember, their business is extremely low margin, high turn (1.6% or thereabouts....correct me but I'm sure its no higher than 3%) and a small goof and that's it. Compare again to my favorite company, huge margin of safety even with a goof(carbacid---net margins consistently in excess of 40%).
VituVingiSana
#224 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 12:50:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@Horton - KK uses the information they have (OTS + KK's imports) whereas ERC uses information from the entire industry (including private imports) thus ERC has more data.

In addition, who verifies the ERC numbers? I checked the website but the info ERC uses is not available. The formula is useless without the INPUT INFORMATION.

When KQ first reported hedges, the information provided was so scant, we could not figure out what was happening. So unless ERC provides ALL the info, how do we know their calculator is working?

Finally, I read KK's latest notice. It was an AVERAGE of 2.36 so if you look at ERC's numbers for Nairobi you find the AVERAGE tends towards +2.36 when you take into account Diesel +2.86 & Kerosene +2.86. It just happens more diesel is sold than petrol in Kenya.

BTW, what if the rise in price if you include the 'pricier' (vs Nairobi) Rift Valley + Nyanza?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#225 Posted : Wednesday, August 17, 2011 12:53:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@horton - Carbacid deals primarily with a single commodity. There is a fixed cost & a relatively small variable cost in production of CO2.

Plus I find Carbacid very pricey on a PER basis. Well run firm but the competitive moat will be eroded as others start producing CO2. I think the Sugar firms plan to do so.

As a shareholder of KK... I think I should suggest they get into this business as well. After all they are in LPG thus they have some experience in moving gas-liquids!

I understand Rwanda is producing Methane/CO2 & KK is quite large there. Thanks for the tip!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kenyainvestor
#226 Posted : Thursday, August 18, 2011 9:41:09 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
With books closure tomorrow, KenolKobil dominated proceedings today at the NSE with turnover of Kshs. 97.85 Million, moving 8.74 Million shares
Price though was down 5 Cents to 11.20/=
LATEST BLOG POST: NSE BANKING SECTOR REPORT - THE TOP 5
FACEBOOK: Kenya Investing
TWITTER HANDLE: @kenyainvestor
Bettertry
#227 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 1:47:49 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/19/2010
Posts: 237
Location: Republic of Graham & Doddsville
Dividend payments was to commence on 2nd-sept... has anyone gotten his/her's, especially those who filled out the shareholders option blah, blah, blah form???
We Will Either Find a Way or Create One - HANNIBAL
VituVingiSana
#228 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 4:25:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
I think the dividends start coming in on 6 Sep... I may be mistaken but the Idd Holiday added the 1 day which threw in the weekend!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
cnn
#229 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 4:46:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
I will be purchasing a new lot of KK immediately the dividend hits the account ,bear or no bear.That way @ 9 ,i will still be above water.
VituVingiSana
#230 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 9:51:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Unless I am desperate for cash... I am all in on KK... Love the management & potential especially with the regional business!

And KK is not just into petrol/diesel/kerosene but also sell LPG & lubricants. In many locations they have have rental income from banks + ATMs...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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