THE RIGGING THAT NEVER TOOK PLACE...

According to ODM, massive rigging took place on the 27th, 28th and 29th of December 2007 during the presidential elections and this cost them the presidency.

We all agree that ODM were the complainants in the elections, their complaint was that Govt colluded with ECK to alter form 16a and 17 at the ECK tallying headquarters.

Results reported at the constituency tallying centres do not match with the results announced at K.I.C.C…on that even the European Union agreed with them in the case of Molo.

ODM also argued that the fact that Total presidential votes do not tally with total parliamentary votes, was also proof of foul play.

Late results from Kibaki strongholds vis a vis ODM strongholds, also came on the microscope.

To cap it all the party argued that Kibaki won in only one province and that it had less MPs and therefore could not have bagged the overall Prize.

And by the way did Kivuitu say he did not know who won the election and were the results announced in a secret room?

PARLIAMENTARY VS PRESIDENTIAL VOTES

Now is it true like Professor Anyang Nyong’o claimed in his affidavit to the commission that the fact that there was more Presidential votes than Parliamentary votes in Kibaki strongholds was proof of rigging?

Nyong’o quotes 47 constituencies having the anomally, but lawyers representing ECK argued against that and tabled documents showing that actually only two constituencies had the Parliamentary and Presidential vote tallying.

Let’s rewind to 1992, the difference between Presidential and Parliamentary ballots was 625,832, in 1997 it was 363,709, in 2002 the variance was 114,429 and last year the difference between Presidential and Parliamentary was 322,240 votes.

Generally, had there been no difference between Parliamentary and Presidential votes that would have been the first election in Kenya without a variance in the two ballots.

In fact a document authored by researchers at the Kriegler commission challenged ODM Lawyers thus, “ if the difference between the votes of parliamentary and Presidential Candidates is proof of rigging, what would you say of Langata where Raila Odinga got 11,000 more votes for President, than he got for MP?”

That forced Nyong’o to withdraw from appearing before the commission after being warned that he would be embarrassed if he attempted to defend what was impossible.

In fact the entire 14 page affidavit before the Kriegler Commission was about the difference and with that singular argument it was watered down.

A statistics expert who analyzed the figures concluded with the amazing observation, That the Total Presidential Vote cast was more than the Total Parliamentary Vote cast in 129 Constituencies while the Total Parliamentary Vote cast was more than the Total Presidential Vote cast in 70 Constituencies.

That in the 129 Constituencies in which the Presidential Vote was more than the Parliamentary Vote, 66 Constituencies were in areas where the ODM presidential candidate took the win while 54 were in areas where the PNU presidential candidate won. The remaining 9 were in ODM-Kenya strongholds. So, the argument by Nyong’o that more Presidential votes in Kibaki’s strongholds meant that there was rigging does not hold and actually bounces hard on him.

That’s not to say Raila did not lose any votes, in fact according to a confidential internal audit by the ECK which I managed to get in the course of attempting to answer my own question of what went wrong states that miscalculation by the returning officers of their own figures had denied ODM 8,700 votes, ODM-Kenya 29,093 and PNU 21,473 votes.

In other words Kalonzo Musyoka and not Kibaki or Raila was the most aggrieved.

As Kivuitu was to explain to the commission, “The difference was not significant as to cause the commission to postpone the announcement of the results.”

THE DISPUTES

MOLO and JUJA

Observers, Foreign Missions, the European Union and respected lawyer James Orengo for ODM, were extremely vocal on the issue of the twin constituencies.

Not even PNU dared reply at the time, the evidence was there for everyone to see, complete with a returning officer paraded before the entire public and form 16A’s.

But now Video tapes from Molo and statistical experts have presented a new dimension.

There were two announcements in Molo. The first showed Kibaki with a vote of 50,145 and Raila Odinga with 19,145 and Kalonzo with 220 votes.

The tapes show the media and two observers one from the EU demanding for results, returning officer Laban Korellach who by the way holds a Masters Degree in Public Administration, went ahead and announced what does not exist in election terms ‘partial results’

Minutes later after the media and the European Union have left, the two main parliamentary candidates force for a re-tally not knowing that tallying process is not even complete.

After Tallying and Re-tallying the results rise for both Raila and Kibaki and finally the result is agreed on and all candidates apex their signature, Korellach leaves for Nairobi.

However, during the re-tally on the night of 28th, the Deputy Returning officer and all the clerks citing fatigue leave the counting hall, forcing Korellach to hire agents from seven political parties to assist in the re-tally since it is at the middle of the night, the participating candidates endorse the move.

Both PNU and ODM agents are involved in the process leading to the disputed announcement that hands Kibaki 74,075, Raila Odinga 21,645 and Kalonzo 222.

Meanwhile at the Media centre William Ruto parades a Mr.Brimin whom he tells the world was the returning officer in Molo.

Korellach dismisses the man, ECK records show the man was the returning officer Nakuru. Ruto who had sworn an affidavit at the Kriegler Commission was too advised to withdraw his statement to avoid a scenario where he would be forced to lie on oath and face Perjury – a criminal offence that would strip him of his Parliamentary seat should he lose the case.

He obeys and withdraws, just like did Anyang Nyong’o.

Enter Juja, ODM buys space in the newspapers (Sunday Nation January 20th) and alleges that indeed President Kibaki did not get more than 100,000 votes in Juja, but carefully conceals the fact that the form 16A they are using is clearly marked 111 polling stations instead of 245.

That’s only 48% of the total; that’s not all if you take simple mathematics on the ODM figures for Juja it would unrealistically mean that voter turnout in Juja was only 34%.

Since 1992 voter turnout in Juja has been an average of 74%, is there any evidence to indicate the drop in turnout suggested by ODM? I visited the constituency I am yet to find a convincing reason.

Now the ODM figures for Molo would suggest that there was a turnout of 47%, yet in Kuresoi which was faced with pre-election clashes the turnout was a massive 76% and in Rongai and Nakuru the turnout was at 75%, what would have made Molo have such a low voter turnout again the figures fail the mathematical test.

Perhaps ODM would have a case in Kieni and Changamwe. In Kieni for instance the returning officer sent in results that did not have a whooping 22 constituencies – reason the man was computer illiterate and yet attempted to use the computer.

Then there is Changamwe where the returning officer admitted that he could not add up figures in his own form 16’s and when he does Raila loses a whooping 12,000 votes, Kibaki loses 7,500 votes and all the others also do not get their fair share.

But so will Kibaki say of Kirinyaga Central where the returning officer denies him 3,000 votes and Raila never gets 100 votes. The story is the same in Masinga, Maragua and many other stations.

For the record when you add the corrected versions the winner as announced by ECK remains in the lead.

MODEL CONSTITUENCY?

It was never contested but lets look at Mbita Constituency, where one Otieno Kajwang hails from.

First the turnout is 95%. That is to say out of the 40,451 registered voters only 1,791 did not vote.

Even Argentinian Commissioner Horacio Boene could not agree with that for one major reason; the voter register was last updated in 1997 and in Mbita only an extra 2,800 voters have ever been registered since indicating a reduced populace.

So is it that people do not die in Mbita? But let’s get even deeper statistics from Mbita; Form 16’s from the constituency indicate that 10 polling stations had 100% turnout, nine had 97%, 39 had 99%, while 23 had 98% and only two posted 72%.

Now unless you wish to argue for argument sake, this was a model constituency as ODM Lawyer T. J . Kajwang remarked.

Kriegler agreed, people do not die in Mbita, they do not lose their voter’s material, they were not sick on election day and come on the retired South African Judge concluded, “ who would argue with that, everyone even the unborn and the dead should vote, shouldn’t they?”

By the way, out of the 38,553 votes cast Raila got 38,451, while the rest 102 were shared among the remaining 8 Presidential candidates – Model Constituency indeed.

Maybe Mbita was not a record, Karachuonyo had 59,063 voters casting their ballot, and only 55 did not vote for Raila Odinga they too had a turnout of 95%.

In fact as Kriegler told the ODM team the voter turnout increases were worse in ODM strongholds than PNU’s…that is a statement better left to argument.

ORENGO

Orengo himself a lawyer had the most allegations in his affidavit before the commission and he withdrew faster than his colleagues after the strict warning by Kriegler.

Orengo for instance claims seeing Kivuitu being bundled into a police Lorry so as to take the form 18 to President Kibaki – Kivuitu dismissed the idea by tabling a tape that show him leaving in his official car escorted by two police cars like had been throughout the election period.

The credibility of Orengo’s evidence is immediately threatened since he says, “I personally saw…”

Then Orengo tackles the controversial issue of secret announcement of results, once again a journalist trashes Orengo’s claims saying that contrary to public opinion all media houses local and International were in the VIP Lounge at KICC for the declaration of results.

A tape of the announcement shows a room packed with media personnel…again to redeem himself Orengo also withdraws.

MARTHA KARUA

Then comes Martha Karua the only one from PNU who lodged her wish to appear before the commission, but is also stopped by Kriegler.

In her statement Karua argues that the election was never stolen and that a meeting that would have resolved the matter on 30th and which Kenyans were never told about ended up in a sharp exchange between her and senior ODM officials.

Kriegler tells Martha that whereas he had no issue about her affidavit he was unwilling to hand the platform to politicians who are already serving in the same cabinet to exchange harsh words of an event which is already gone.

What about the media? We too failed in our own many ways, live television was used by everyone and even a fake returning officer from Molo managed to get airplay.

Then the announcement of results, we announced results without background information for instance from polling stations we did not indicate the number of registered voters, past voting trends and voter turnouts.

Truth be said we also took sides, I remember that small email written by a senior newspaper editor using his office email, where he did an investigation, made a discovery then wired it quite carelessly to a political party and said, “kazi kwenu” meaning make noise about it.

In a way nothing wrong with that since it is asking for action on issues, but the problem is the senior editor who still pens columns in that particular paper leaked that information even before he published it himself!

But again perhaps a nation only gets the journalists it deserves. I give it to Cameramen and Photographers they want out of their way to search for stories to unite us, Pastors shielding people, hugs, handshakes and political foes chatting.

If you think am lying look at how low our media houses sank during the CNN 2008 media awards – the awards went only to a great sports writer and photographer…electronic political reporters who have always dominated were easily struck out.

Many other things I have learnt in my little research and as I compile my investigative documentary, a lot more will come, but one thing is clear, the information we received was skewed and most of it was not true.

I know sometimes it does not matter who won, after all as we all say they do not pay our rent, but it pays to know who made us fight for that is the person who contributed to the inflation, the commissions and the regression of the economy, the next project will be to know who signaled the start of the flames, but for now that’s the larger bit of the truth.

AS for the exit poll, who can believe guys who did a poll from 10am to 3.30am and admit that only 40% of voters had cast their vote? and am referring to both polls the one that declared Kibaki winner and the other one...

By the way I intentionally will not say who won the election from the information I have and which I have partly provided… but the facts are there lets dismiss them or embrace them and move on, this note is my way of moving on…and appreciating the truth.

In my view we all lost in the last general elections we proved that our political leaders can make us hate each other, we were weak at the end of day, but with the lessons learnt - politicians will never again have such power over us...

Thank you. And you're welcome.

The spelling is wrong though - it should be more like:

ar.............tur..............magaryan.


And it's not: sikisoma

In Swahili we say: SIK-U-SOMA

Meaning, I never went to school. It's more of a description indicating that one had delinquency problems and thus dropped out of school.

Don't worry there are many of those. An example is in the 17th paragraph of 'THE DISPUTES - MOLO and JUJA' section where it is indicated that the returning officer was computer 'illiterate' which was the cause of the results of a whopping 22 constituencies not being sent:



Make sure you do not apply for an election job. We wouldn't want results to be missing because of 'sikisoma type illiteracy'.

Wahenga hawakukosea waliponena, 'Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it'.

What do the unlearned and illiterate say?

MAKOSA ILIF'I'NYIKA

Good expose! Now we move on to current issues

very true...interesting read

B timer, Yes see here is ones of my post cheering Raila




B.Timer Why do you hate Raila this way ? Alikula Mbuzi ya nani?


http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...4349&p=2#post207161

I try to be objective and fair as I can in all my posts .

Not just a bootlicker

I have always believed that Kibaki won. Raila cheated (I have eye witness accounts of people - who themselves voted 17 times in Kalenjin land and Luhya land)
the Maragua issue that is sometimes carelessly thrown around was a parliamentary miscount where a polling centre had been included twice.

Raila and Rutu caused the country to go down in flames!

They did not cause, they planned it to the finnest detail. Woh onto PNU sympathizers, if ODM had won, the plan was to make life as difficult as possible to them that they would never rise again in the foresearable future. Wait for the stories as the movie is acted at ICC. The truth eventually prevails, however long it takes.

Rigged elections or not, what happened after that was shameful and ALL involved ought to feel ashamed.

The elections dispute was just an excuse for nutcases to carry out their depraved minds' fantasies.

We are a year or less away from the elections and the shenanigan miscreants are throttling in full swing, emerging from their dump habitations, ready to poison our minds and memories..

God save our country