By OSCAR OBONYO

Even as he embarks on a charm offensive across the country, Prime Minister Raila Odinga may first have to deal with the ‘Luo factor’ squarely ahead of the General Election.

The ‘Luo factor’ has got to do with beliefs about the community that have previously dissuaded some from voting for the PM. Others include fears of a Luo-presidency and the discomforting over enthusiasm of those who rush to the defence of Raila.

Well aware of these factors, last weekend the PM confronted the issue at a funeral in Ndhiwa constituency, South Nyanza. He asked the Luo to tone down on perceived arrogance, embrace other communities, and pay up for rented houses in towns.

Raila was reacting to calls by Kenyans from other parts of the country, some who have told him they would prefer him for president, but were afraid of his fervent supporters.

Within the Orange party, there has been disquiet over Nyanza politicians who have formed a ring around the PM. A Cabinet minister from Eastern Province confided to The Standard On Sunday in an earlier interview that ‘his’ people were undermining the PM’s campaign.

“Most of these people need the PM more than he needs them. Raila can still garner 100 per cent of the votes from the region with or without them,” said the minister.

And an MP from western Kenya is even more enraged: “We have come from far with this man and shall not allow his people to mess up. He is easily the best candidate that Kenya can have, with the right reform credentials and agenda for Kenya. How do we allow such a man to sink, just because of some individuals’ egos?”

Stating the lamentations are not unfounded, Joint Government Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo advises that Nyanza leaders must be alive to the fact that their behaviour and utterances reflect positively or negatively on Raila.

Tribal leaders

Midiwo says Kenyans have historically shunned tribal leaders who form a ring around a president. During Kenyatta’s time, the so-called Kikuyu mafia was unpopular with the people, as did those who surrounded President Moi, and now the Mt Kenya mafia around President Kibaki.

“I don’t think Kenyans want to see a Raila, who reminds them of Kenyatta, Moi or Kibaki. That is why they are bitter with what they perceive as an emerging tribal mafia around the PM,” says Midiwo.

Because of his influence as a coalition partner, Amukowa Anangwe observes the PM is equally viewed as the incumbent – a factor that has attracted political baggage in the name of his ardent supporters.

“They are overzealous in their defence of him and that is not a political asset. The PM himself is a popular leader, but when you have courtiers who are overzealous and sometimes run ahead of you, they risk portraying you in bad light. At this critical time, Raila must take control of the process,” says Anangwe, who teaches political science at the University of Dodoma, Tanzania.

Nicholas Gumbo explains what many consider as the ‘Luo political problem’. The Rarieda MP says this stems from three cultural traits of the community – pak ruok (self-praise), sunga (pride) and nyadhi (bravado).

“It is a cultural thing among us. We refer to one another by nickname or praise names, exhibit pride, appreciate beauty, good deeds and celebrate achievements – all rather openly,” explains Gumbo.

Regretting that some have interpreted this as arrogance, the MP offers: “What others think we are is not what we are. Those of us who are professionals have achieved what we have by working hard with other Kenyans.”

Director of Communications in the PM’s office Dennis Onyango said: “The PM is simply passing a message he has received from other communities to the Luos. I can confirm to you that some fear the Luo will bully them or take the law into their hands when Raila becomes President”.

Taken hostage

The PM, according to Onyango, is also preparing to avoid the pitfall that has derailed the presidency in Kenya—that of being taken hostage by his community. Raila, says Onyango, is therefore stating he intends to be President for Kenyans, not the Luos.

“It is important to note that some of the perceptions, including Luos not paying rent, are not necessarily true. But they have to be put in public domain because they shape attitudes,” said Onyango. Nonetheless, Raila still has to battle for penetration in central Kenya – courtesy of the notion that the PM would feel compelled to avenge past political ills allegedly visited on his community by the Kikuyu.

Separately, Raila’s social democracy leaning is source of worry to the moneyed business people and Anangwe advises the PM, who is also a wealthy businessman, to demonstrate that he is not against wealth creation.

“His support for have-nots is worrying the rich and influential and needs to be moderated. But a delicate balance must be maintained so he does not lose out on the core support from the poor,” says Anangwe.