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Fear on the Street: Inside the Stock Sell-Off
Cde Monomotapa
#21 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 11:24:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I'll be gunning for 1,000%+ returns when I come there. In between time i'll be making such from Zimbabwe's on-going economic recovery. Same story, different cast.
Nabwire
#22 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 11:39:05 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Where do you get this time frame that the recession will last 10 years? What if right after elections, the bulls come roaring out?? Then what, you will still buy in 2015?? I dont put timeframes, I just listen to politicians and Wallstreet and ofcourse research individual companies, gosh I wonder what Buffett's day is like coz the little research I do is overwhelming. LOL ati hii sio ndoa, since I dont have funds i'm in and out of the markets, though I dont short, too complicated for me. Now you and I both know 1,000% returns is an impossibility, ok maybe except in Zim. Good luck with that in the US.The only way, that I know of, that you can make a tenth of that in the US is through futures, another game that I dont understand and Buffett advises against, and like someone said, I tend to take him seriously
Cde Monomotapa
#23 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:09:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
U r right. Timelines r tricky so i'll be watching the interest rates which will definitely be going up in years to come to absorb all that QE money that went to Wall street instead of the real economy. I will make 1,000% in Zim as it is coming from a low base and since post 2009, Zim has been using the USD as the official currency (from stocks to vegeis) so that's 1,000%+ returns in USD terms.
Cde Monomotapa
#24 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:14:25 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Economic cycles usually have 10-15yr boom-busts. For example, Zim's decline started in 2000 and bottomed in 2009. My entry point was 2006 during hyper-inflation and a dysfunctional currency. So it can be seen we got it for da low!
Cde Monomotapa
#25 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:19:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The new Zim economy/GDP is growing at 9-10% p.a using the USD. US GDP growth is stagnant - spot the difference??
Cde Monomotapa
#26 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:45:34 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
How can the Zim economy run on forex and Kenya can't? It's because it mines gold,platinum,palladium,steel,coal,diamonds,chrome,nickel ferrochrome e.t.c (42 different resources in total), has vast tobacco & cotton exports, great tourism (Victoria Falls) - all that wealth divided amongst a popn.of only 15M of Africa's most literate people.
Nabwire
#27 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:57:10 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Again, Bernanke is not going to raise interest rates, rates are lowered in a recession coz of inflation and raised in a bull market coz of deflation Econ 101. Now if we go through stagflation, iko shida. Whats your reasoning for raising rates coz of QE? This was done by printing money which was eventually consumed without results, so how does that justify raising rates? Say it with me, you only raise rates when the economy is doing exceptionally well to avoid deflation.
PS why do I keep getting a msg that you can only comment after 3000 seconds? How come you can do multiple posts and I cant?
Cde Monomotapa
#28 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:13:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
QE was used to repair balance sheets and driving up wall-street instead of creating jobs in the real economy. That I refer to as zero-calorie money. Even our Kazi Kwa Vijana did better under our stimulus package alongside building roads & connecting more to electricity Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly. Bernanke won't raise rates now but come after the polls and he is off in retirement, they'll go up. This is not about personalities, just basic economics and monetary policy. Too much money doing nothing (US) or doing too much (China) leads to inflation, simple. How do U arrest it? Raise interest rates to mop it up. Obama promised construction jobs in exchange for stimulus. Where are they? Republicans are taking control, no more freebies!
Cde Monomotapa
#29 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:15:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
About the posts, U have to rise up the ranks Madam Hello smile
Cde Monomotapa
#30 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:25:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Wait a minute...too much money doing nothing leads to deflation due to lack of spending. That's even worse!! The govt.will almost be the only business man in the economy (like pre 09 Zim) as the US corporates holds on to cash in bank. More job losses coming up.
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