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Could dream of property riches turn into a nightmare few years to come
Rank: Member Joined: 6/17/2011 Posts: 229
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Ceinz wrote:Lolest! wrote:I hope the I am proven wrong in future but in all honesty I do not see counties helping ease the housing crisis. Demand for housing is highest around Nairobi metropolis, and also high in the main towns in Kenya. Why should anyone bother about county hqs so much yet their main thing will be eating their share of national cake allocation? Their duties and powers are much like those of local authorities! Imagine investing in Wajir, Homabay or Kerugoya towns merely because they are county hqs. Utangoja miaka 30! No Apana U are already proven wrong, have you been down there really or ur just working on ur own assumptions from your comfort Zone in the city. I've been to Nanyuki,Busia and Katchmega, and I believe the trend is the same/ will be in the other county HQs. Demand for office space and residential units is good. Some developments in these places are yielding rents comparable to what some city landlords are getting. And mark you the decenralisation thing has just began. Wait till these county governments begin. Utashangaa how short a time miaka 30 is. Very good to have upgrade happening all around as opposed to only in Nairobi. http://tinyurl.com/6xj7as3 A pal recently bought a 1/4 acre at 'Skuta' in Nyeri for 2m,[1st row along Nyeri-Karatina main road] put up a 25 unit 2 Bedroom Flat. Now fully let each going for 12500. To get a similarly good place for rentals in Nairobi Suburbs like Rongai, he would have had to pay like 8-10m for the land alone, and get around 20k in rent per unit. Depending on the area, the cost of construction too comes down. I am still very optimistic on the 'softer landings' on the menu at the counties, especially near the big towns. The road network upgrade and lots going on like University opening campuses all over adds up the spice. Cheers
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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@eco, while it is true that other towns are also growing, it is important to know that their growth is because they are key commercial centres and not because they are county hqs. Would anyone ignore investing in Kitengela or Naivasha simply because they are not county hqs? They are fast growing towns, perhaps more than their hqs
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/17/2011 Posts: 229
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Lolest! wrote:@eco, while it is true that other towns are also growing, it is important to know that their growth is because they are key commercial centres and not because they are county hqs. Would anyone ignore investing in Kitengela or Naivasha simply because they are not county hqs? They are fast growing towns, perhaps more than their hqs @Lolest, I do agree with your point. To me I am looking at the counties from an investment and business potential point of view, and not political. So yes, I would go for the commercial centers which are the 'busy business hubs' of the counties while the 'hqrs' may be slow 'government seat' in the area. In some counties though, the two are synonymous like Nyeri, Kericho, Machakoes. In Nanyuki for example, the coming of Nakumatt and the on-going construction British Army Barracks is already stirring property prices upwards.
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Rank: Hello Joined: 7/19/2011 Posts: 1
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before we answer that,what ru thinking of real estate as?is it for Capital gains or for monthly cashflow?even when real estate bubble bursts,those who get hurt r the capital gain waiters,lol.those who buy real estate for cashflow still gain there millions.rent doent change even when the bubble bursts.. back to the question,i agree those who think it will burst may be right,as history has proven in the developed countries(America on spot).should it happe,please be ready to buy for cashflow..an then CALL ME..lol
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
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mbulunza wrote:before we answer that,what ru thinking of real estate as?is it for Capital gains or for monthly cashflow?even when real estate bubble bursts,those who get hurt r the capital gain waiters,lol.those who buy real estate for cashflow still gain there millions.rent doent change even when the bubble bursts.. back to the question,i agree those who think it will burst may be right,as history has proven in the developed countries(America on spot).should it happe,please be ready to buy for cashflow..an then CALL ME..lol Good point !!! Long term investment in real estate is for cash flow that is rental income. That means buy or build to let. Rent will either go higher or stagnate. I am afraid rents will not drop (decrease). The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/17/2011 Posts: 229
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mbulunza wrote:before we answer that,what ru thinking of real estate as?is it for Capital gains or for monthly cashflow?even when real estate bubble bursts,those who get hurt r the capital gain waiters,lol.those who buy real estate for cashflow still gain there millions.rent doent change even when the bubble bursts.. back to the question,i agree those who think it will burst may be right,as history has proven in the developed countries(America on spot).should it happe,please be ready to buy for cashflow..an then CALL ME..lol I go for both 10% off plan, rent out or sell with gains once complete. Where we are in Kenya, it is time for capital gains. This is helping helping to strategically own rentals for a handsome cashflow. And quote me, comparing Kenya to America concerning the real estate bubble burst is like comparing Nairobi and Mtito Andei or Kasighau and such like local shopping centres. What can hurt the trends in Kenya is political instability, God forbid . We recorded positive growth during the recent recession in the developed world. We can have temporally slow downs, but burst, nay. All those 20k tenants are longing to own houses, and as economy improves, more will get into the bracket. Why talk of bursts when the supply for good housing in Kenya is 5 times less the demand?
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/2/2009 Posts: 286 Location: Nairobi
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A burst will come some day, as nothing continues forever. But to come in a couple of years, NO way. Figure this out. By 2030; at current population growth, Kenya will have approx. 72 million people. Currently, housing supply is at 35k units per year against a demand of 150k units. Shortly, GOK will offload at least 100k civil servants for posting to counties. That works out to an average of over 2k staff to each county. Imagine 2000 new residents in Homabay Town; where is housing for them? Or wajir or Kakamega? There is still aloooot of room for growth in this sector before a burst. The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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my take is that with the county government, real estate in kenya wil go the south africa way as in there will be many more cities each with its own economy as opposed to currently where we only have nairobi with a vibrant real estate industry.The net efect of this is a reduction of land costs and reduction of construction prices. Land in nakuru residential such as 58 or bahati is less than 1m per 1/8th. The same distance from cbd of nairobi, the 1/8th goes for 1.5 to 2m. This is coz of forces of demand nd supply coupled with lack of infrastructure investment by govt.Investors will get more by constructing in the counties than around Nairobi.. As Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/17/2008 Posts: 567 Location: Nairobi
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Anyone can make losses in any project as long as the buying price is not good.
Profits are made the moment you buy not when u sell.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/4/2010 Posts: 1,668 Location: nairobi
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with the onset of counties,property prices will now be evenly distributed throughout the countries. See SA property prices here http://www.myproperty.co...an_st0_130_10_-1_-1.aspxAs Iron Sharpens Iron, So one Man Sharpens Another.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Nightmare set to become worse, with the increase of valuation fee: http://www.businessdaily...76/-/lw78wi/-/index.html
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 89
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Ceinz wrote:Lolest! wrote:I hope the I am proven wrong in future but in all honesty I do not see counties helping ease the housing crisis. Demand for housing is highest around Nairobi metropolis, and also high in the main towns in Kenya. Why should anyone bother about county hqs so much yet their main thing will be eating their share of national cake allocation? Their duties and powers are much like those of local authorities! Imagine investing in Wajir, Homabay or Kerugoya towns merely because they are county hqs. Utangoja miaka 30! No Apana U are already proven wrong, have you been down there really or ur just working on ur own assumptions from your comfort Zone in the city. I've been to Nanyuki,Busia and Katchmega, and I believe the trend is the same/ will be in the other county HQs. Demand for office space and residential units is good. Some developments in these places are yielding rents comparable to what some city landlords are getting. And mark you the decenralisation thing has just began. Wait till these county governments begin. Utashangaa how short a time miaka 30 is. @Ceinz umeongea ukweli kabisa! I went through mind transformation when I visited one/two of the counties, and it was total shock for me..!This is the right time to put foot there.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Pablo wrote: Anyone can make losses in any project as long as the buying price is not good.
Profits are made the moment you buy not when u sell.
Indeed! An asset is asset and they all have cycles!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/24/2008 Posts: 46 Location: Embu
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chances that there will be a real estate bubble burst anytime soon are too slim.This phenomena occurs when an assets turns toxic.our model of financing real estate development is too conservative/risk averse.its only CFC thts hav imported the practices-100% financing.remortgaging etc.so dont wait for it to happen ever unless we change the method of financing.prices can stall/stagnate but thts not a burst!
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Could dream of property riches turn into a nightmare few years to come
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