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Jubilee Insurance 1H 2011 EPS up 19%, Interim Dividend Sh1
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the deal
#21 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:46:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
Jubilee is using accounting magic to hide the fact that Profits were down...look at comprehensive income...no wonder they didnt increase their dividends...

Sigh, you need to a little more reading... I advise you grab a book that discusses IFRS accounting as relates to insurance firms.

Comprehensive Income includes 'gains/losses' that are not Operational in nature though do form part of the 'Income' of the firm.

In the past such data was captured in the Shareholders' Equity section.

Agricultural firms have "Biological Assets" which are not equal to cash which is why Williamson specifies 90/- EPS is not cash EPS (or from operations)

As is Insurance firms are notoriously difficult to value thus I rely on trust of Management.

I do not trust Kenya Re but I trust Jubilee. Of course, never pay too much for a good thing either nevertheless Jubilee is the BEST listed insurer in East & Central Africa!

Boss Total Comprehensive income include stuff such as financial assets which are not tradable but gains/losses are recognised through FVTOCI...do not read too much into what the media is feeding you...Jub's top line biz is growing but not as fast as the media says...use tools such as npw/npe ratio...look at the amount ceded to reinsurer...look at the surge in claims...theyre taking in too much risky business and a 10% growth in operating profits confirms that...
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youcan'tstopusnow
#22 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:59:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
the deal, claims rose by how much? (%)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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the deal
#23 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 12:04:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
the deal, claims rose by how much? (%)

By 24%...the insurance biz is pooh pooh...investment income is Jub's only saviour...
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VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 12:14:09 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Erm, amounts ceded to re-insurers need to be analyzed. There is a MINIMUM statutory requirement. You can always cede more.

Claims - These vary substantially year on year. Its the long-term trend that matters but even then it can be volatile e.g. Japan's tsunami.

Erm, I don't use the media for analysis.

How does a 10% INCREASE in Operating Profits confirm they are taking on too much risky business? Unless you can audit the books, this info is tough to assess.

As is analyzing Insurance Firms is very hard. I do not bother. If you can do it using the little info provided, then good luck.

Again, I look at multiple metrics but if I don't trust the Management then I will NOT invest in an Insurance Firm.

Warren Buffett looks for 'float' not an underwriting profit. If JIC had sold their stocks in 4Q 2010 then they are very, very smart coz they can buy back in 2012 at a 25% discount + 10% interest gain in 2011. Very smart folks!

BTW, I doubt JIC sells their holdings in TPSEA, NMG & DTBK which are all tremendous firms.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#25 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 12:28:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
Erm, amounts ceded to re-insurers need to be analyzed. There is a MINIMUM statutory requirement. You can always cede more.

Claims - These vary substantially year on year. Its the long-term trend that matters but even then it can be volatile e.g. Japan's tsunami.

Erm, I don't use the media for analysis.

How does a 10% INCREASE in Operating Profits confirm they are taking on too much risky business? Unless you can audit the books, this info is tough to assess.

As is analyzing Insurance Firms is very hard. I do not bother. If you can do it using the little info provided, then good luck.

Again, I look at multiple metrics but if I don't trust the Management then I will NOT invest in an Insurance Firm.

Warren Buffett looks for 'float' not an underwriting profit. If JIC had sold their stocks in 4Q 2010 then they are very, very smart coz they can buy back in 2012 at a 25% discount + 10% interest gain in 2011. Very smart folks!

BTW, I doubt JIC sells their holdings in TPSEA, NMG & DTBK which are all tremendous firms.

Look at the cash flow statement...under cash flow from investment activities...you will see where JUB's investment income is coming from...they have a mountain to climb to match last years perfomance...well to see if Jub's insurance biz is profitable just subtract operating expenses+claims from NPE...Jub does not sell the 4 Aga Khan firms...those ones are not tradable...thats why the need for FVTOCI...
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the deal
#26 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:17:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Find my analysis of those Jubilee numbers here http://contrarianinvesti...r-full-year-profits.html
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guru267
#27 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:38:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Find my analysis of those Jubilee numbers here http://contrarianinvesti...-full-year-profits.html


@the deal I seriously wonder how you sleep at night after publishing such ridiculous information.

Firstly the EPS is up 35% not 19% (you cant even do something as simple as adjust for bonus shares)

Secondly almost all their half year profits depend on the insurance business and in your analysis you claim that they made underwriting losses..

Thirdly Jubilee has never relied on the NSE for its overall profit... In 2009 the market was down and every insurance company from Britak to Cfc life posted a loss whereas Jubilee posted a profit GROWTH!!

And Who told you proceeds from sale of shares has anything to do with the profits from the sale of those shares.

How does the drought and inflation affect Jubilee? People and businesses take out more premiums.

Your research exposes a lot of ignorance and i must say I am pretty dissappointed in this analysis so please change it or remain exposed..

I repeat..

The NSE has never and will never impact jubilee's earnings significnatly!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#28 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:42:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Superb results from jubilee.. In a challenging environment like the current one insurance companies usually wallow in losses so im impressed..

I project full year EPS to be at 45bob..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Gordon Gekko
#29 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:48:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
guru267 wrote:
Superb results from jubilee.. In a challenging environment like the current one insurance companies usually wallow in losses so im impressed..

I project full year EPS to be at 45bob..

Quite a timid response. I expected vitriol and thunderstorms directed at @the deal.
Lakini @guru, isn't 45/- a little on the ambitious side? Stocks aren't doing as well, seacom tariffs are under pressure, the dam in UG has water supply issues, where will the investment income come from?
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the deal
#30 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:52:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Guru I stick by my analysis...i'm just telling it the way it is...clearly you don't know anything about insurance...or analysing an insurance company for that matter...an EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...we can bet..
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