youcan'tstopusnow wrote:VVS would I be right in saying you care little for the current activities of Unga Holdings and Williamson Tea but your MAIN reason for investing is because of the land they sit on?
Yes & No. Both businesses produce good returns (though they are lumpy!)
Unga - Year End 30 June 2011 - My forecast EPS 1.75+ thus attractive PER & great assets! The assets (land) is my backup! Land in Nairobi's industrial area which I have seen. It is grossly under-utilized. There are depots in Eldoret & Nakuru (which I have not seen).
Williamson - YE 31 March 2012 - I expect a 'cash' EPS of 25+ (based on 1Q tea prices + forex rate though a long way to go) so a decent PER & the land is my backup!
So even as operating businesses, they are OK in my view. Not high growth but profitable. The land is where I become 'rich' i.e. P/B is very low coz of the land!
@the deal - Ahhh, we were young once too!
The farmer in Kiambu who grew coffee for 30 years made more money from selling his land than he did from farming (which is sad in itself). So I am like that farmer except I am even 'paid' to keep my faith! Even during the 'worst' period in Kenya, the price of land remains 'steady' in many areas.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett