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KenGen - Just how low can it go?
mwanahisa
#31 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 6:22:52 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Back to KenGen, their 2010-11 H1 commentary appears to bear you out in so far as power supply, especially the hydro position is concerned. I note that KenGen reported a 61% increase in unit sales between Dec 2009 and Dec 2010.

KIPEVU II, 120 MW; and Wellhead Technology, 5 MW were to be commissioned in March 2011. Tana additional 20 MW was also ready for commissioning in March. If all this came to pass, KenGen would certainly appear to have been able to supply more power in 2011 vis-a-vis 2010.

Of course, I have also noted that costs also increased significantly esp. due to additional depreciation and financing costs.

All said and done, it looks like the price may have dropped sufficiently for my short term play. The share has certainly been punished heavily.

Now where are the technicians to support/dispute my intuition? QW, Hisah, SPT come on!
Aguytrying
#32 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 6:56:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mwanahisa wrote:
Back to KenGen, their 2010-11 H1 commentary appears to bear you out in so far as power supply, especially the hydro position is concerned. I note that KenGen reported a 61% increase in unit sales between Dec 2009 and Dec 2010.

KIPEVU II, 120 MW; and Wellhead Technology, 5 MW were to be commissioned in March 2011. Tana additional 20 MW was also ready for commissioning in March. If all this came to pass, KenGen would certainly appear to have been able to supply more power in 2011 vis-a-vis 2010.

Of course, I have also noted that costs also increased significantly esp. due to additional depreciation and financing costs.

All said and done, it looks like the price may have dropped sufficiently for my short term play. The share has certainly been punished heavily.

Now where are the technicians to support/dispute my intuition? QW, Hisah, SPT come on!


@Mwanahisa. After it fell from 15.60 to 13.70, i jumped in ( as a trader, for the rebound- u know how we do!).

But alas the thing has been heavily punished further since. Honestly im surprised it has come this low.

The last one year low was 12.95, and i thought that's where it would bottom out or there abouts.
I normally get weary when im trading a stock and it goes below where it normally bounces from. that said, i would be very surprised(read as fingers crossed) if it would go any lower. whatever happened to co-op,am hoping will happen to this.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Cde Monomotapa
#33 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 7:05:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Look for KGN's extended version of H1 results on the NSE website (hoping it is still there) and look at the cash-flow statement.
the deal
#34 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 10:01:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Rule 1: Never get married to a stock least it turns out to be a monkey

Rule 2: Never forget Rule 1.
mwanahisa
#35 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:36:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I reviewed all the material I could get on KenGen yesterday, including the PIBO prospectus. My verdict was that I am still unconvinced on KenGen joining my all star long term portfolio. But I will be happy to make some opportunistic money, on it all factors considered. My stop loss has been set at between 11.00 - 11.50, in case it bombs.

I have therefore plunged in this morning from a price of 11.90 but I will probably go all the way to 12. This is a fairly small play on my part but if I play it right, it should still be worth some nice cheddar.
mwanahisa
#36 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 10:55:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
The opporunity didn't last long now did it? I should have spent time buying it yesterday instead of debating it with a lawyer. But I got the bit I wanted.
Cde Monomotapa
#37 Posted : Tuesday, July 19, 2011 11:26:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwanahisa wrote:
The opporunity didn't last long now did it? I should have spent time buying it yesterday instead of debating it with a lawyer.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Aguytrying
#38 Posted : Friday, July 22, 2011 9:39:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
Rule 1: Never get married to a stock least it turns out to be a monkey

Rule 2: Never forget Rule 1.

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly . nice one.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
alutacontinua
#39 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2011 9:52:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/23/2011
Posts: 304
Currently trading around IPO price :( price but I would defiantly put this stock on my watch list mostly due to the fact of the increased electrical demand the country is expecting to have and as someone mentioned earlier in a thread…the power of a carbon credit cheque.

Heres a link to a project they have failed to mention on the site:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5THThSuOPw - A wind farm to inject 300MW (or more) of power into the national grid. This plus projected 7k MW from geothermal plants in Rift Valley boils down to a fat annual carbon credit cheque thus improved earnings which should show in the share price but in this market who knows……..(just my 2 shillings worth)

Interesting to note that KPLC have already set up 2 wind turbines in the town and am sure will also be gunning for carbon credit points. Any correlation between KPLC and KENGEN????? (gave this a shot and the following graph came about: http://www.mystocks.co.ke/s25/20110722)
You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
Cde Monomotapa
#40 Posted : Saturday, July 23, 2011 10:50:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
alutacontinua wrote:
Currently trading around IPO price :( price but I would defiantly put this stock on my watch list mostly due to the fact of the increased electrical demand the country is expecting to have and as someone mentioned earlier in a thread…the power of a carbon credit cheque.

Heres a link to a project they have failed to mention on the site:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5THThSuOPw - A wind farm to inject 300MW (or more) of power into the national grid. This plus projected 7k MW from geothermal plants in Rift Valley boils down to a fat annual carbon credit cheque thus improved earnings which should show in the share price but in this market who knows……..(just my 2 shillings worth)

Interesting to note that KPLC have already set up 2 wind turbines in the town and am sure will also be gunning for carbon credit points. Any correlation between KPLC and KENGEN????? (gave this a shot and the following graph came about: http://www.mystocks.co.ke/s25/20110722)

!! THAT WAS ME !! About C.Credit chq.s...so many annual biliions to be earned just to sell AIR by a company (KGN) whose core business is firmly supported by an already evolving blue print (Vision 2030). This is such a no-brainer!!
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