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KenGen - Just how low can it go?
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwanahisa wrote:KenGen aint a monkey, and I never said it is. In the long run KenGen will make you money but one could have said the same when KenGen was trading at Kshs 19. And in the long run I can mention at least 10 other companies that I believe will make me a lot more money than KenGen.
For now, I am thinking in the short term. I am seeing some opportunity in KenGen - just trying to determine the point at which I strike. I can almost smell it. It's that close. No long term position for me in this. Just imagine if I bought it tomorrow at 11.50 and it gets back to 15. I will be out with my money while leaving those whose average price is 15 still holding on, waiting for the long term.
I knew I was talking to a trader...who in his trasversing is probably in a net-loss position. Lol!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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mwanahisa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:1. Kengen alone can't power Vision 2030 (unless u want a time-lag) 2. What better business than one expanding into an undersupplied market (all new out-put is taken up). 3. KPLC is making 200K* new connex p.a (penetration @25% and growing-highrises/real estate, R.E.P). I surely have every reason to own this Co.and have deep sleep while U worry about a price that i'm glad to buy cheaper  See, I knew you could do better. But the question is does KenGen actually have the power to supply the underserved market? Sure KPLC's connections are rising but just how much of the supply is coming from KenGen? Other than the new KIPEVU thermal commissioned earlier this year (or was it?), what additional power has KenGen brought into the grid? And isn't this somewhat negated by the drop (or anticipated drop) in the hydropower throughput as the drought continues to rage on? Here is your answer: http://www.kengen.co.ke/...ess&subpage=current
There you will find a list of all projects done and planned in the last 3 years and in the next 3, respectively Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:There has been drought in Eastern but not in Central, Rift & Western. The country's drainage flows from West to South (Tana) & finally into the Ocean. The rest of ur questions I will refer U to the Annual report, Half year commentary or let's just wait for the full year (it is better U find out for yourself what new capacity has come on stream in the last 2 FYs.) Cde, I wanted to avoid the extra work looking for those figures, especially when I am not looking at staying in the stock for too long, but I will look into it. I remember that the half year profitability figures were none too impressive.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@Mwanahisa. Do you have any long holdings? If yes, which ones.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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eps 0.89 a p/e of 10= kshs.8.9 fair value for a trader in this market but long term it will be a great company maybe 2018 onwards. I don't have that time horizon in mind so i have reduced it.
Mr. Market is just quoting the figure it's up to you if you want to deal or you can ignore Mr. Market if you believe in the fundamentals
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@Mwanahisa. Do you have any long holdings? If yes, which ones. Indeed I do. I hold KQ, Equity Bank, KCB, Jubilee, Centum, KK, Cititrust, WTK and Limuru Tea as my long positions. I however lighten these positions whenever there is a ramp up in the price and I can foresee drops (read that as making an educated guess) even in those long term stocks. I then buy back my positions at lower prices whenever possible. Of all the above positions, the only ones I have not touched in a while are the AIMS as it is usually hard to get them back. Besides these positions, I frequently trade speculatively on any opportunities that come about, with about 25% of my capital. I also ensure that I have at least 10-15% of my portfolio in cash at practically all times, unless the market is extremely bullish. I will not pretend never to have lost money on my speculative trades, for I have and I am sure I will CONTINUE to do so. On the whole however, my success rate is higher than my losses. On my speculative positions, I am usually prepared to lose money. I am fairly ruthless in instituting stop loss levels but overall this has saved me bigger losses.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwanahisa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@Mwanahisa. Do you have any long holdings? If yes, which ones. Indeed I do. I hold KQ, Equity Bank, KCB, Jubilee, Centum, KK, Cititrust, WTK and Limuru Tea as my long positions. I however lighten these positions whenever there is a ramp up in the price and I can foresee drops (read that as making an educated guess) even in those long term stocks. I then buy back my positions at lower prices whenever possible. Of all the above positions, the only ones I have not touched in a while are the AIMS as it is usually hard to get them back. Besides these positions, I frequently trade speculatively on any opportunities that come about, with about 25% of my capital. I also ensure that I have at least 10-15% of my portfolio in cash at practically all times, unless the market is extremely bullish. I will not pretend never to have lost money on my speculative trades, for I have and I am sure I will CONTINUE to do so. On the whole however, my success rate is higher than my losses. On my speculative positions, I am usually prepared to lose money. I am fairly ruthless in instituting stop loss levels but overall this has saved me bigger losses. Gracias.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I knew I was talking to a trader...who in his trasversing is probably in a net-loss position. Lol!! BTW @Cde, before 2008 I was a great believer in buy and hold but when the market changes I had to change with it. While I still believe in the long term story of the stock market, I do what I can to mitigate the impact of severe drops in the prices of even those counters that have the best of fundamentals.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mwanahisa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I knew I was talking to a trader...who in his trasversing is probably in a net-loss position. Lol!! BTW @Cde, before 2008 I was a great believer in buy and hold but when the market changes I had to change with it. While I still believe in the long term story of the stock market, I do what I can to mitigate the impact of severe drops in the prices of even those counters that have the best of fundamentals. Ok.
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KenGen - Just how low can it go?
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