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Transcentury IPO
mwanahisa
#81 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2011 10:00:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
mwekez@ji wrote:
KenyanLyrics wrote:
What about the potential for the railway? Isn't that something to watch out for?


RVR will take a loooong time to turnaround. Centum had to exit RVR with a 25% loss (bought at USD.6M and sold at USD 4.5B)after holding it from 2006 to 2010.


I have just seen some clips of the Kitale Railway Station and the associated infrastracture on NTV this evening. The dilapidation of the infrastructure provides a very stark demonstration just how far RVR has to go if they are ever to make this investment pay off.
mwekez@ji
#82 Posted : Saturday, July 16, 2011 11:31:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
mwanahisa wrote:

I have just seen some clips of the Kitale Railway Station and the associated infrastracture on NTV this evening. The dilapidation of the infrastructure provides a very stark demonstration just how far RVR has to go if they are ever to make this investment pay off.


TCL books have carried the investment in RVR at cost which is definitely not the fair value. I tend not to agree with the way TCL values companies, including their valuation of TCL at KES 50 (its just gross overvaluation)
mwekez@ji
#83 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 8:28:02 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Shareholders of RVR will be injecting USD.80M (KES 7.2B) more capital in the company very soon.

African Development Bank has approved a loan of USD.39M (KES 3.59B) as part of a five-year capital investment programme worth USD 246M(KES 22.1B)

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/Ra...056/1202756/-/9t62egz/-/

And still RVR requires more than this to turn around its poor performance
mwanahisa
#84 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 9:01:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
By the way, TCL projects EPS to more than double this year. Even with such a rosy projection, forward EPS will still be close to 20 at Friday's closing price.
mlennyma
#85 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 9:33:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Below introduction price this week.you praise your cow in the market even if its dying..thats sales
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Sober
#86 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:39:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
WHAT PRICE IS THIS SHARE TRADING AT?
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
selah
#87 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:04:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
In todays paper ADB has approved a 3.59b loan to finance the rehabilitation of the dilapidated kenya - uganda railway,the loan is part of 5yr capital investment program of 22.1B.

The last time I checked TCL owned part of this Bank so can we take its statement seriously or can we say most of its decision is clouded since its just funding its sister company.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwanahisa
#88 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:17:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@selah, TCL does not own even a hair of AfDB. The African Development Bank is certainly not a sister company of TCL. I am sure they (TCL) would wish it was!

selah wrote:
In todays paper ADB has approved a 3.59b loan to finance the rehabilitation of the dilapidated kenya - uganda railway,the loan is part of 5yr capital investment program of 22.1B.

The last time I checked TCL owned part of this Bank so can we take its statement seriously or can we say most of its decision is clouded since its just funding its sister company.

selah
#89 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:58:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mwanahisa wrote:
@selah, TCL does not own even a hair of AfDB. The African Development Bank is certainly not a sister company of TCL. I am sure they (TCL) would wish it was!

selah wrote:
In todays paper ADB has approved a 3.59b loan to finance the rehabilitation of the dilapidated kenya - uganda railway,the loan is part of 5yr capital investment program of 22.1B.

The last time I checked TCL owned part of this Bank so can we take its statement seriously or can we say most of its decision is clouded since its just funding its sister company.



Apologies,that was quite a big error, I had confused it with development bank of Kenya (DBK).

What that means is that TCL offers some very attractive long term value but its a risky investment in the short term,my error not withstanding.

The capital requirement for RVR to turnaround is humongous given that the management need to pay up this loan as well as the convertible bonds not forgetting loans which it is already servicing.

In a capital intensive business like this one until the business is completely streamlined and all processes made to work efficiently then its like standing in a quick sand...the management will continue investing and loosing money in a business whose operational cost is unsustainable due to derelict infrastructure.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
VituVingiSana
#90 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 1:27:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
30/- & in 2013 after the elections & see if the power brokers are still 'friends' of TCL...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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