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KenGen - Just how low can it go?
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:05:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I have never been a fan of KenGen, notwithstanding the killing many of us made from its IPO.

I am however aware that there are many here, correct that to read some who are enamoured of it. Given that it is now trading at or BELOW its IPO price, is there an investment case for it especially for short term players?

Cde et al...just what do you see in KenGen? Anyone...what is your worst case scenario for its share price before release of results this September?
Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:21:06 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I see it lighting ur world each and every day.
mkonomtupu
#3 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:23:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
kengen is messed borrowed at 12.5% cash they couldn't use effectively in a year, they got bogged down with procurement bureaucracy they had no guys with treasury experience ended up buying t-bills, borrowed from international financiers to be repaid in forex, shilling lost ground, MoE messed them further by refusing to raise the tariffs, the glory days are gone for kengen wait for it when it does a rights issue.
mwanahisa
#4 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:26:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
A rights issue will be its death knell (did I spell that right?)!
Cde Monomotapa
#5 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:48:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mkonomtupu wrote:
kengen is messed borrowed at 12.5% cash they couldn't use effectively in a year, they got bogged down with procurement bureaucracy (but U r still paying us monthly for the new Kipevu 120MW) they had no guys with treasury experience ended up buying t-bills (cuts our net finance costs, beats banking yet to be deployed funds)

Cde Monomotapa
#6 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 11:54:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mkonomtupu wrote:
borrowed from international financiers (good grace periods @ low interest rates) to be repaid in forex, shilling lost ground (a good look @ your elec.bill and u find out that U pay for that too), MoE messed them further by refusing to raise the tariffs, (so we are working on capacity exapansion too) the glory days are gone for kengen wait for it when it does a rights issue (u'll probably grow old waiting).

mwanahisa
#7 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:03:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
To answer my own question... I have just checked on Bloomberg. Seems the share price actually plunged below Kshs 9 in March 2009. So if it is doomsday all over again (which I do not believe), I guess it could have some more distance to cover on the way down. Somehow, I do not think it will get there!
Muthawamunene
#8 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:45:30 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
this topic wuld ve been so funny if it were a ludacris song. HOW LOW CAN YOU GO??!!
Cde Monomotapa
#9 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 12:51:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Muthawamunene wrote:
this topic wuld ve been so funny if it were a ludacris song. HOW LOW CAN YOU GO??!!

Face down! a*s up! a*s up! Luda!!
selah
#10 Posted : Monday, July 18, 2011 3:15:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
This company is abt to touch its IPO price of 11/= its just a few cents away.Govt stocks are just unpredictable.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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