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The long bear
hisah
#81 Posted : Saturday, July 09, 2011 7:14:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
If you look at this article of mine it takes you into the future http://contrarianinvesti...inancial-crisis-of.html

At least CBK is trying to do something for now. My beef is with Treasury. The finance ministry needs a policy strategy makeover not political appointees. Luckily this comes to play 2013. The sooner, the better. It would be a sad thing to have the Thai experience across EA with the smaller economies & the poverty levels...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mainat
#82 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 2:56:02 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
In 3 months, we seem to have gone bearish fully na baado we have not had the political shenanigans kicking in properly. That is, August cut-off period for katiba implementation; ICC; and the GE campaigns have all not kicked in. And interest rates will only be restrained by heavy rains and lower oil prices between now and December. Could we see 3,500? Are there some cat bounces in the short-term horizon? Your call.

Those with share holdings built during the bullish period now have 3 options. Hold out and wait for cat bounces. Exit and look to recoup in other significant stock opportunities. Or so-called averaging down...
Sehemu ndio nyumba
kenyainvesting.blogspot.com
#83 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 3:54:02 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/29/2011
Posts: 56
Location: Kenya
Looking at the board, its almost all red, with just a few spots of green. Buckle up!
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the deal
#84 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 8:14:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500.
hisah
#85 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 8:19:20 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500.



I can bet ya, 3600 handle will be hit before the cat bounce hits resistance at 3900 for the next dive towards 3000 (pain central zone). That's the time when I'll consider loading up the decks even paka???
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#86 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 9:16:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500.



I can bet ya, 3600 handle will be hit before the cat bounce hits resistance at 3900 for the next dive towards 3000 (pain central zone). That's the time when I'll consider loading up the decks even paka???

ha ha. Pain central zone indeed. U seem to be looking forward, it may happen, dont you fear for your current holdings. @the deal. Thats precisely how i see the n.s.e by end year as well.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
hisah
#87 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 9:24:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
the deal wrote:
I see the bourse closing 10-15% higher than today towards year end....on good company earnings and trimmed political risk( im betting on the hague train to go smooth)...company valuations alone wont see us below 3500.



I can bet ya, 3600 handle will be hit before the cat bounce hits resistance at 3900 for the next dive towards 3000 (pain central zone). That's the time when I'll consider loading up the decks even paka???

ha ha. Pain central zone indeed. U seem to be looking forward, it may happen, dont you fear for your current holdings. @the deal. Thats precisely how i see the n.s.e by end year as well.


I got out of the market when the USDKES hit 90/-

I gave my explanations here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=152171#post152171

and here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=152515#post152515

and here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=149655#post149655

and here
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=156061#post156061

and since then this is how NSE looks like after falling from 4400s, which confirms this is a buyers market and not for speculators. Speculators would have benefited if short selling was permitted. YBC, Mainat and myself would be in the monies... I'd have been short selling those bank stocks and industrials like nobody's business...



$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#88 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 9:54:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@hisah i'm looking at this chart with an open mouth sheeew...if the NSE does not up in the next 3-4 sessions 3500 is the next support...too early to be buying...dont catch a falling knife it will cut you...my only hope is the upcoming earning season
Aguytrying
#89 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 10:07:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@hisah.Yes. Now i rem. When you left the n.s.e. Seemed drastic at the time, but boy, you were on point. You are good at what you do. There's a wazuan called insurgent, looking for you in another post, he thinks you are a prophet. I cant disagree.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Cde Monomotapa
#90 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 10:25:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
my only hope (expectation) is the upcoming earning season

Me too.
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