Wazua
»
Investor
»
Property
»
Could dream of property riches turn into a nightmare few years to come
Rank: Member Joined: 1/21/2009 Posts: 46
|
The story in Daily Nation ' Dream of NSE riches turns into nightmare' made me think; could property boom being experienced turn into a nightmare a few years to come?
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
|
Property boom WILL be a nightmare in a few years to come.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
The same pitch being propagated here was made abroad that, "property can only gain" or "u can't go with real-estate" look where that landed them 
|
|
|
Rank: Hello Joined: 7/2/2011 Posts: 7
|
yes, it can. real estate is a business like all others and it surely has a time for entry and exit for a wise investor.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
|
You still waiting for the burst? Its been a long wait since around 2004. Paradoxically, we wait for the real estate bubble in equal measure as the next stock market bull!!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
|
Gordon Gekko wrote:Property boom WILL be a nightmare in a few years to come. Prices already topping off in the upmarket areas! Keenly waiting and watching how the 2H2011 with its high interest and inflation rates impacts on real estate! @SufficientlyP
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
|
not yet,....have a friend who bought a house in the upmarket are and he is still chuffed that he is getting 8% rental yield and the tenant keeps offering him more money to buy his house out...
im sure it will come soon though a coupla years perhaps??
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 3/12/2011 Posts: 108
|
Gordon Gekko wrote:Property boom WILL be a nightmare in a few years to come. A unique difference between property boom in Kenya and the US housing burst is that Kenyan boom is being driven by real demand as population grows. Current population growth rate is 2.6% that was preceded by population growth rates that exceeded 3% in the 1960s/70s. It is this population boom (born in the 1960s/70s) that is creating genuine demand for housing/land/plots and is not heavily indebted to crash like the US housing bubble. The US housing bubble was not driven by 'genuine' housing demand. These are very different dynamics such that a property boom crash in Kenya would be mild at worst.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590
|
Some sections of the property market are undoubtedly overheating e.g. the apartments in Kile/Kilimani etc. Most other areas are not. The secret is not to over-leverage yourself... Sehemu ndio nyumba
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
|
Ndaragwa wrote:Gordon Gekko wrote:Property boom WILL be a nightmare in a few years to come. A unique difference between property boom in Kenya and the US housing burst is that Kenyan boom is being driven by real demand as population grows. Current population growth rate is 2.6% that was preceded by population growth rates that exceeded 3% in the 1960s/70s. It is this population boom (born in the 1960s/70s) that is creating genuine demand for housing/land/plots and is not heavily indebted to crash like the US housing bubble. The US housing bubble was not driven by 'genuine' housing demand. These are very different dynamics such that a property boom crash in Kenya would be mild at worst. Yes, demand is growing, but not in Nairobi. The counties are the next frontier. At my own small level, the organisation I work for is now planning on moving us to the counties. I know that the biggest employer (Government) is doing the same.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
|
There is still a lot of migration to Nairobi. Ocha for many guys will now be in the metropolis. There wont be any burst, at least not in the forseeable future...and the county hqs, they will stem the migration marginally.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
|
Lolest! wrote:There is still a lot of migration to Nairobi. Ocha for many guys will now be in the metropolis. There wont be any burst, at least not in the forseeable future...and the county hqs, they will stem the migration marginally. As long as there is no basic infrastructure in the hinterland , no job opportunities, people in black Africa will still migrate to cities. Basic infrastructure like roads, medicare and electricity is far from being provided talk less of mass housing, the demand for housing will still outweigh supply so real estate prices will continue to rise in future. The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 8/25/2010 Posts: 283 Location: Nairobi
|
Gordon Gekko wrote:Ndaragwa wrote:Gordon Gekko wrote:Property boom WILL be a nightmare in a few years to come. A unique difference between property boom in Kenya and the US housing burst is that Kenyan boom is being driven by real demand as population grows. Current population growth rate is 2.6% that was preceded by population growth rates that exceeded 3% in the 1960s/70s. It is this population boom (born in the 1960s/70s) that is creating genuine demand for housing/land/plots and is not heavily indebted to crash like the US housing bubble. The US housing bubble was not driven by 'genuine' housing demand. These are very different dynamics such that a property boom crash in Kenya would be mild at worst. Yes, demand is growing, but not in Nairobi. The counties are the next frontier. At my own small level, the organisation I work for is now planning on moving us to the counties. I know that the biggest employer (Government) is doing the same. In defining a property burst(Bubble):- A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline. A boom on the other hand is a period of sudden economic growth, especially one that results in a lot of money being made or is when demand exceeds supply and prices are rising at a significantly higher rate than the balance of the economy as defined by Martin Edwards and is the case in Nairobi and may be Kisumu & Eldoret That said i would say that we are in the midst of a property boom, and it is being replicated to the counties. Housing market indicators attempt to identify bubbles before they burst. Housing affordability,debt,ownership & rent measures read more Which is not the case yet in Kenya. I like the part were Satch says “Kenyans are like the British - they have a supreme faith in bricks and mortar and with good reason.” For better ROI i would focus on the counties. Land price are still affordable compared to Nairobi. www.propertyzote.com the ultimate ‘one stop online shop’ of choice connecting more people with more properties at the click of a button
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/21/2009 Posts: 46
|
Still, keenly following the events unfolding in real estate sector in Kenya. For the first time in the last 10 years, house prices are stagnating or there is oversupply. Is this sending a signal? Stories in: Supply increase tips homes market in favour of buyersRoof-high prices squeeze out first time buyers from housing market
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
|
I hope the I am proven wrong in future but in all honesty I do not see counties helping ease the housing crisis. Demand for housing is highest around Nairobi metropolis, and also high in the main towns in Kenya. Why should anyone bother about county hqs so much yet their main thing will be eating their share of national cake allocation? Their duties and powers are much like those of local authorities! Imagine investing in Wajir, Homabay or Kerugoya towns merely because they are county hqs. Utangoja miaka 30!
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
|
Lolest! wrote:I hope the I am proven wrong in future but in all honesty I do not see counties helping ease the housing crisis. Demand for housing is highest around Nairobi metropolis, and also high in the main towns in Kenya. Why should anyone bother about county hqs so much yet their main thing will be eating their share of national cake allocation? Their duties and powers are much like those of local authorities! Imagine investing in Wajir, Homabay or Kerugoya towns merely because they are county hqs. Utangoja miaka 30! No Apana  U are already proven wrong, have you been down there really or ur just working on ur own assumptions from your comfort Zone in the city. I've been to Nanyuki,Busia and Katchmega, and I believe the trend is the same/ will be in the other county HQs. Demand for office space and residential units is good. Some developments in these places are yielding rents comparable to what some city landlords are getting. And mark you the decenralisation thing has just began. Wait till these county governments begin. Utashangaa how short a time miaka 30 is. “small step for man”
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
@Kabush, I believe that we have not yet reached a tipping point, but there is certainly a slackening of demand at the top end of the market.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
|
@Ceinz, let us differentiate county hqs from key regional commercial centres. It is a coincidence that these key commercial centres are also county hqs. But we will have cases where the county hqs are not the key commercial centre in their counties! Can you choose to ignore investing in Ngong, Kitengela or Ongata Rongai so that you can invest in their county hq Kajiado town?
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/31/2008 Posts: 1,076
|
The population is growing but land isnt! Unless man learns to live on trees, property prices will continue to rise. Manipulated growth and over commitment is what brought about the meltdown in the US. Of course when you abuse a system you expect consequencies. In our case we are not anywhere near the US situation. Dunia ni msongamano..
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 2,037 Location: Lagos, Nigeria
|
B.Timer wrote:
The population is growing but land isnt!
Unless man learns to live on trees, property prices will continue to rise.
Manipulated growth and over commitment is what brought about the meltdown in the US.
Of course when you abuse a system you expect consequencies.
In our case we are not anywhere near the US situation.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Property
»
Could dream of property riches turn into a nightmare few years to come
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|