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Short term Stock pick
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#21 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 6:04:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Hi guys, @Waguma is not a fresha, he has already said that!
@SufficientlyP
QW25071985
#22 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 6:19:21 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
hahahah. lol. @Waguma is most definately a fresha. we are in a bear market and he expects to make profit IN A MONTH ???????????? i say he expect maybe to make +40% in a month.Lets get real.Thats impossible
Sir Waguma please donot confuse the n.s.e with your nearest casino !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sober
#23 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 7:21:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
I would advice you to put the miney in an IPO. Your gamble may work on the opening day because of the wide swings always seen on the first day. But which ONE RUNS IN A MONTH?! none. The nearest is the Britac one running from next week 12th to 5th aug but you will give them like a month more before they are back for trading hence a period of three in total. And mark you it is a gamble because it call also pull a negative stunt.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
mwekez@ji
#24 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:29:34 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
The IPO that s/he can put his/her bet on is Bank of Kigali. BK has strong fundamentals unlike Britak. Britak speculators will be counting losses if it issues a profit warning during H1 results
lovely2010
#25 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:45:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Jimnah is one of the big boys in Britak, but now he wants to be politician...I think the coming IPO munamchangia pesa ya campaign...
Sober
#26 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:50:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
lovely2010 wrote:
Jimnah is one of the big boys in Britak, but now he wants to be politician...I think the coming IPO munamchangia pesa ya campaign...



even if tunacchangia pesa ya campain peopel should just ensure that they safeguard theirs. If you can make a gain together with the big boys the better.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Aguytrying
#27 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 8:52:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
1 month will turn into 1 yr. N.s.e is no joke. There's an ipo this month....britak. But if i was to advice you, just keep your money in the bank, and do your project in august.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mwekez@ji
#28 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 11:36:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Read the following report and then do one of the following:
1. Invest in defensive stocks
2. Invest in the bank of kigali ipo
3. Take @Aguytrying advice in post #27

CFC Equity Report

NSE 20 share Index’s six months performance to date: In the six months to June this year, the NSE 20 Share Index has lost 11% (20% in dollar terms). In our view, this is largely attributable to three main factors (i.e.) drought, high inflation and the weakening shilling. In the period under review, KenolKobil has performed the best returning 19% year to date (YTD). On the other hand, AccessKenya has performed the worst (down 46% YTD). All sectors constituting the Nairobi All Share Index have returned negative returns year to-date. The banking sector has relatively outperformed all sectors returning -2.5% YTD. The Automobile sector has had the poorest run YTD losing 17.4%. The ICT sector has also under-performed the NSE 20 share index as it has lost 15.7% YTD.

Bear run may persist in the next six months: We foresee the factors cited above to continue dragging the Kenya equities performance for the next six months. We are however quick to point out the possibility of inflation topping off in the fourth quarter as the harvest season starts. We also expect investors to start taking a cautious view about the equities market as Kenya gears up for the 2012 presidential elections. In our view, the NSE 20 share Index is likely to close below the 4200 mark. This represents a -5% return YTD. In cognizance of this, we encourage investors to invest in defensive stocks; these are stocks which are expected to be less affected by the current bear run and could therefore out-perform the NSE 20 Share Index. In the six months to June this year, the only stock in our universe with a Buy recommendation that has exhibited defensive traits is: East African Breweries (EABL) which has lost only 3% YTD.

Insurance stocks likely to under-perform: Last year the insurance companies registered a positive performance being full beneficiaries of the strong run recorded by the Kenyan equities market (The Kenyan equities market was second best in Africa in 2010). This is as a result of the insurance companies large investments in the equities market thus benefitting from the market rise. We expect the Kenyan equities market to close in the negative, and this trend should therefore reverse the gains registered by the insurance companies. We are likely to see these stocks recording further weakness as the market pre-empts this possibility.
invest0r
#29 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 9:00:16 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
mwekez@ji wrote:
... do one of the following:
1. Invest in defensive stocks
2. Invest in the bank of kigali ipo
3. Take @Aguytrying advice in post #27


Option no 1 is for fund/portfolio managers who must be in the market. In a bear market, hold your money and wait for the moment when the bear is departing and buy all your counters at bei ya jioni.

Take option 2 or 3
hairglo
#30 Posted : Tuesday, July 05, 2011 9:03:04 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/28/2011
Posts: 30
dunkang wrote:
Dear WAGUMA,

I entered NSE to make a quick catch, 16 months later, am still waiting for profits, since i know if i press SELL today, i might as well commit suicide.

Instead, i have now found myself buying and buying and buying.

As you have been told, 'NSE is not a fish market'. BUY, wait, make profit, SELL.

I have learnt the hard way, but am better off since i've not yet sold!

Yours Sincerely,


dunkang
FOR: TRADERS FORCED TO INVEST (pty).


same here
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