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BRITAK IPO: The Money Maker
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mwanahisa
#211 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 11:52:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@2012, I only quoted the above examples to share my thoughts regarding how perceptions have changed (for the worse) regarding equities in Kenya in general since 2008.

In my view you should not look at the 9/= price in isolation. There will be 650 million shares for the IPO - that's not exactly a small no. This is more than the entire listed shares of KNRE (600m) and about 6 times of PanAfric shares (96m after the bonus is credited). In addition indications are that current shareholders will be allowed to sell 49% of their current holdings which will potentially add another close to 750 million shares.

Of greater concern however is that BA has just come from a very good year in terms of performance and it was not in their core business hence almost no chance of replication. When H1 results are released, what do you think the reaction will be to a significant drop in earnings?

I believe that if the IPO is succesful, BA will become a very strong company. It will be the most capitalized insurance/investment company. The question is in order to maximize our gains at what point does one get in. Before or after the IPO? I am still inclined to participate in the IPO but ready to bolt immediately after listing and then get in later. Now, let's wait for the IM.



2012 wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
[quote=2012]Remember except for the KPLC rights issue which just squeaked through, both CoopBank and the KCB rights issue were not fully taken up.


KPLC and KCB were rights. In my views an IPO is different because unlike rights where the current trading price is a big factor in setting the issue price and KCB's mistake was not clearly articulating what they needed the cash for otherwise as you can now see it is a strong counter and has withered that storm. At 9/- I honestly can't see it going south, I can't see anything that would drive it south fundamentally not even the current inflation, do you?
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mwanahisa
#212 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 11:54:24 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
gathinga wrote:
was this analyst speaking to the press?


CNBC this morning. Of course that is not to say the analysts are always right.
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Cde Monomotapa
#213 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 12:15:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
mwanahisa wrote:
gathinga wrote:
was this analyst speaking to the press?


CNBC this morning. Of course that is not to say the analysts are always right.

Delightful departure indeed smile
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jerry
#214 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 12:29:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
gathinga wrote:
was this analyst speaking to the press?


CNBC this morning. Of course that is not to say the analysts are always right.

Delightful departure indeed smile

=>were he to be smarter he would've recommended LONG TERM BUY.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, July 04, 2011 12:30 PM | Reason: Not specified
mkonomtupu
#215 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 12:33:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
when we get into this discussion of getting either at the IPO or secondary market it's unproductive, it's the same thing that happened to KCB everyone expected a massive dilution and that explains its under subscription. If you are an investor you buy at the IPO for the long-term, the company needs your capital to expand, it's been run under good management so far, give your capital time to earn returns. If you are speculator just wait for it at the secondary market. Either way you will make your returns only issue is how long it takes
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Wendz
#216 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 12:38:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
the deal wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
@the deal, One other question for you.

The Equity Bank share price rose substantially between Jun-30-09 & Jun-30-10. Given this scenario, most of the gains on FVTPL on quoted financial instruments for 2010 arose in the first half of 2010.

The change in price for Equity Bank between 30-06-10 to 30-06-11 is a lot smaller meaning that the gains in H1 2011 will be somewhat miniscule. Of course given what you say about BA having reduced their stake in Equity, there will be some satisfaction in that there will be realised (and not just paper) gains.

Nonetheless, did Mgt give you any indication that they had found a way to limit the scale of the drop in investment income. Or, as Stocksmaster says is an earnings famine on the cards starting this half year?

None apart from going into real estate,regional expansion and opening more branches...the 2H will be good cos they finished a development in the 1H which theyre going to sell in the 2H.


did he indicate how their new Uganda branch is performing? What's the market response? When do they expect a break-even or they've already achieved that?

@mwanahisa
You have mentioned that you will be in for speculation? how high do you see this share going after listing before its price stabilizes considering the current hard-to-excite market?
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, July 04, 2011 12:42 PM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#217 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 12:39:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwanahisa wrote:
This morning, there was this analyst from Drummond, who when asked whether he would be buying into the BA IPO came straight out and stated bluntly he would rather wait for it on the secondary market. This is very unlike a broker who invariably ALWAYS have BUY recommendations.



I am liking this buy recommendation smile

Target = 15/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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FUNKY
#218 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 2:50:52 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
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Cde Monomotapa
#219 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 4:20:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Are they re-ploughing the IPO funds ama? Yet to read/find the IM.
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Aguytrying
#220 Posted : Monday, July 04, 2011 7:58:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
mwanahisa wrote:
This morning, there was this analyst from Drummond, who when asked whether he would be buying into the BA IPO came straight out and stated bluntly he would rather wait for it on the secondary market. This is very unlike a broker who invariably ALWAYS have BUY recommendations.



I am liking this buy recommendation smile

Target = 15/-

@hisah. Precisely what i was thinking, like your view of the market. When they shout bear, time to buy, and vice versa.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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