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Uganda Shilling - Death Wish
VituVingiSana
#21 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 10:31:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Historically, the Botswana Pula (BwP) experienced similar weakness during the exploration stages of its diamond resource. The reversal to strength of the currency after diamond sales commenced made smart fellows richer. Hence, same story, different cast. UG is no exception. It is more of a patience than a money game perse ~ Respect the game & the game will respect you.
Very different scenarios.
Botswana - Respect for democracy, elections (& the aftermath) are generally peaceful, corruption is minimal, lots of land [albeit mostly desert)
Uganda - corrupt prez, extends his term (24 yrs in power), corruption abounds, good land but population growth exceeds that of well-fed pigs

Uganda has a lot more going for it (vs Botswana) as far as 'overall' resources are concerned...

- Very good land [Ugandans except in the drier north hardly ever have famines] with water
- Smart/educated populace. Some of my best teachers in High School were Ugandans. Then the Kenyan teachers complained. A pity coz the replacements were not as good!
- Uganda has lots of water for its land area.
- Oil is better than diamonds. I can live without owning a single diamond but I need oil.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#22 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 10:37:32 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cde. R.G Mugabe. True revolutionary, Pan-african & may he be life President of Zimbabwe.

The machinations of the West on this country created a GREAT oppurtunity to accumilate distressed yet quality long-term assets. The race is not for the swift...
BULLSHIT. Blaming the west for mugabe's problems? Same BS from Kenya's politicians when most of the post-1963 problems were NOT (minimally) colonial in nature e.g. goldenberg, anglo-fleecing, 10% bribes for licenses, 2008 PEV, land-grabbing, etc

This jamaa owns a (at least) $5mn house in Hong Kong. Why? So his daughter can go to college! He has raped the country. He played up tribalism. Took the land from White Farmers & gave it to his cronies [like kenyatta] instead of a fair distribution.

grace is known to go 'shopping' abroad while the country forex reserves were run down. I saw a documentary showing the mercs, etc of mugabe's buddies WHILE the poor Zimbabwean could not afford bread!

mugabe could have retired & let a new generation take over but he is no Mandela.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FUNKY
#23 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 10:49:07 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
http://www.monitor.co.ug.../-/byouh8z/-/index.html

CBK should learn something from Bank of Uganda.
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 10:57:50 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
FUNKY wrote:
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1192418/-/byouh8z/-/index.html

CBK should learn something from Bank of Uganda.

CBK has done much better than BoU [KES dropped from 85 to 91 (8%) while UGX went from 2,400 to 2,750 (15%) in same amount of time
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FUNKY
#25 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 11:01:03 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
@ vituvingisana-my point was if CBK had intervened in good time and sold some of its reserves the shilling would have never reached the 90/- levels.
Cde Monomotapa
#26 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 11:08:23 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
FUNKY wrote:
@ vituvingisana-my point was if CBK had intervened in good time and sold some of its reserves the shilling would have never reached the 90/- levels.

The structural reforms made by CBK are a more sustainable & longterm solution to curb the vice of speculation and not using forex reserves to fight non-fundamental problems. @vvs under the land reform there are 60K BLACK farmers producing more tobbaco than the former 4,000 white farmers.
Cde Monomotapa
#27 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 11:10:12 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
In conclusion..u can keep ur bible n' white Jesus and I will keep my land & natural resources.
VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 11:37:06 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,378
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
FUNKY wrote:
@ vituvingisana-my point was if CBK had intervened in good time and sold some of its reserves the shilling would have never reached the 90/- levels.

The structural reforms made by CBK are a more sustainable & longterm solution to curb the vice of speculation and not using forex reserves to fight non-fundamental problems. @vvs under the land reform there are 60K BLACK farmers producing more tobbaco than the former 4,000 white farmers.
Kuweni Serious! I am talking of 'food' where Zimbabwe became a NET importer from being a NET exporter!

[BTW, I am not talking of land re-distribution but of the theft of the land like kenyatta did. The benefits accrued to a few politically connected friends of mugabe]

mugabe's cronies grabbed the land, then sold it to the other Zimbabweans making $$$ MILLIONS in the process. Then used the cash to buy mercs & foreign real estate!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
SAC Cohen
#29 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 11:45:56 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 129
Location: Nairobi
BOT has suspended clearing in TZ, no flows in our out... apparently its a normal occurrence.... and please dont ask me for a link...
selah
#30 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2011 12:39:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
FUNKY wrote:
@ vituvingisana-my point was if CBK had intervened in good time and sold some of its reserves the shilling would have never reached the 90/- levels.


I doubt this,If CBK had sold its reserve there were no sign the speculators would have stopped their attack,I think what the governor did was splendid,in that he identified the speculators and made sure he gave them the warning shots then he plugged the holes this speculators were using to manipulate the system.

When a currency is under speculative attack the only way to salvage the situation is make monetary policies that ensure returns on speculation are as negligible as possible i.e taxing and increasing the interest rates.If you are sucked in by selling the reserves you might be taken to the cliff and dropped just like any other bubble.

remember CBK hold 3 point something months of imports as reserve now tell me how precarious the situation would have been if CBK had tapped into that reserve.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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