wazua Thu, Apr 2, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

16 Pages«<1112131415>»
PLAYING THE MARKET-2011 RESOLUTION
mukiha
#121 Posted : Monday, May 09, 2011 8:15:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
invest0r wrote:
erifloss wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@investor - Just so I am clear.

The actual inflation for 4 months is 8.15% [which mean annualized is around 25%?]

8.15/4 x 12 = 25

[Ngai! I can believe it coz fuel & food are much pricier!!!]

Nop annualized inflation cannot be 25%. April's inflation is at around 12.05% (annualized) & thus by any measure it can't add up to 25%.

12.05% is the ACTUAL inflation for the 1 year from April 2010 to April 2011. Ceteris paribus, the annualized inflation for the 1 year starting Jan 2011 to Dec 2011 should be 25%

Inflation is determined from the Consumer Price Index [CPI]....and i got this from the KNBS website: "Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3 per cent from 112.05 points in February 2011 to 114.62 points in March 2011"
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
invest0r
#122 Posted : Monday, May 09, 2011 9:33:42 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
mukiha wrote:
invest0r wrote:
erifloss wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@investor - Just so I am clear.

The actual inflation for 4 months is 8.15% [which mean annualized is around 25%?]

8.15/4 x 12 = 25

[Ngai! I can believe it coz fuel & food are much pricier!!!]

Nop annualized inflation cannot be 25%. April's inflation is at around 12.05% (annualized) & thus by any measure it can't add up to 25%.

12.05% is the ACTUAL inflation for the 1 year from April 2010 to April 2011. Ceteris paribus, the annualized inflation for the 1 year starting Jan 2011 to Dec 2011 should be 25%

Inflation is determined from the Consumer Price Index [CPI]....and i got this from the KNBS website: "Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3 per cent from 112.05 points in February 2011 to 114.62 points in March 2011"


2.3% is the month on month inflation from feb 2011 to march 2011. Inflation is always calculated from CPI. That how I come up with the following figures:

Inflation for 1 year from April 2010 to April 2011

(118.29-105.56)/105.56 = 12.05%

Inflation for the 4 months starting from beginning of Jan 2011 to end of April 2011

(118.29-109.38)/109.38 = 8.15%

Annualized (or projected) inflation for the 1 year starting Jan 2011 to Dec 2011 is 25% as shown above by VVS.
invest0r
#123 Posted : Friday, June 17, 2011 11:35:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/15/2010
Posts: 162
stocksmaster wrote:
My exit target for my sizeable KK holding is a price of Ksh 20 in March 2013 (100% capital gain in 20 months).
.


@stocksmaster, does the above statements (in another thread) apply to your speculative KK holding
young
#124 Posted : Friday, June 17, 2011 11:49:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
on 23rd March 2011 :-
young wrote:
Too early to judge @stockmaster, evey year is is not the same. Besides we are in the 3rd month of 2011, we still have 9 months to go.

Stockmaster is an intelligent guy, at times issues (political, economic) that is out of control and unforseen do happens.

In soccer at times the best striker do miss a penalty kick, that do not make the player less skilful.


In the worst case scenerio, @stockmaster made 100% in 2010. In 2011 cumulatively (2010 - to end of 2011, if the average is 50%, that is still a sterller performance.

The bottom line is we have to be patient with the witty stocksmaster.

On the long term the driving force of stocks prices is the fundamentals, it is a question of when. One can time the market correctly, but at times it is not possible, that is the essence of holding a long term view on the market.
Hope we all know @stockmaster invests on the long term, it is only a portion of his portfolio he is experimenting which he started last year.This is the second year.
Again @stockmaster and others are very intelligent , be patient with them.

Regards

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
VituVingiSana
#125 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2011 2:15:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Where are those naysayers? @stocksmaster has shown you what it means to 'invest'... KK is rocking & rolling...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stocksmaster
#126 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2011 4:26:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
stocksmaster wrote:
END OF FOUR MONTHS REPORT

Opening Position as at 1st January 2011: Cash + Net Share Value = Ksh 1,107,078

As at End of April 2011:
Value of Shareholding:
4200 DTBK @ Ksh 144 = Ksh 604,800...........A
45,000 KenolKobil @ 9.95 = Ksh 447,750......B

Gross Value of Shareholding(A+B)= Ksh 1,052,550
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal = Ksh 19,156

Net Value of Shareholding=Ksh 1,033,394...........C
Cash in Hand after Last Transaction =Ksh 105,186..D

Total Value of Shareholding + Cash (C+D)as at End of April 2011 = Ksh 1138580

Net Gain in Value for the four months =Ksh 1,138,580 - Ksh 1,107,078 = Ksh 31,502
% Change in Value = + 2.85%

Expected Short term gains within the next 2 Months:
1. Cash Dividends from KenolKobil: Ksh 0.52 X 45,000 X 0.95 = Ksh 22,230
2. Cash Dividends from DTBK: Ksh 1.60 X 4,200 X 0.95 = Ksh 6,384
3. Bonus Shares from DTBK: @ 1:5 = 840 DTBK Shares

COMMENTARY
The first four months of 2011 have seen the NSE 20 share index go down by 9.1% (Compared with my marginal gain of 2.85%).

The market seems to have found some base at the 4,000 NSE level. It will be interesting to see which direction wether North or South it follows from here.

With 1st Quarter results starting to trickle in, positive bank results may tilt the push Northwards.

My current share portfolio has preserved my capital well but i will soon be reassessing it to capitalise on any emerging opportunities and/or utilising the cash available.

Happy hunting.




HALF YEAR 2011 REPORT

The end of trading today marks the end of the 1st Half 2011.

Opening Position as at 1st January 2011: Cash + Net Share Value = Ksh 1,107,078

As at End of JUNE 2011:
Value of Shareholding:
5040 DTBK @ Ksh 120= Ksh 604,800...........A
NB: Received 840 DTBK Bonus shares
45,000 KenolKobil @ 11.50 = Ksh 517,500......B

Gross Value of Shareholding(A+B)= Ksh 1,122,300
Less 1.82% Transaction fee on disposal = Ksh 20,426

Net Value of Shareholding=Ksh 1,101,874...........C

Cash in Hand after Last Transaction =Ksh 105,186
Add: Cash received as dividends - DTBK: Ksh 6,384
- KK: Ksh 22,230
Total Cash in hand: Ksh 133,800...................D

Total Value of Shareholding + Cash (C+D)as at End of June 2011 = Ksh 1,235,674

Net Gain in Value for the six months =Ksh 1,235,674 - Ksh 1,107,078 = Ksh 128,596
% Change in Value = + 11.62 %

Six months performance of NSE 20 Share Index =
- 10.5%



COMMENTARY
The first six months of 2011 have seen the NSE 20 share index go down by 10.5 % (Compared with my gain of 11.62%).

The market seems to have stagnated at the 3950 - 4000 level, i situation i forsee persisting for the remainder of the year.

Kenol Kobil has been the star of my speculative stocks. Currently trading at Ksh 11.50, i still rank it as a Buy factoring in a + 50% half year performance and a projected Ksh 2 EPS for 2011. This makes my target of Ksh 20 in the 1st Quarter 2013 feasible.
The company did announce that part of the reason for increasing the number of issued shares was to increase the trading of its shares apart from the ESOP. This smells of a bonus issue (i suspect a 1:10 issue at the end of year.....@ VVS - can a company issue bonus shares in the middle of a financial year??).

The other speculative play (DTBK) has had No capital appreciation in the last two months and will soon ofload it for a more strategic purchase.

Happy hunting.

x handle: @stocksmaster79
fresher2010
#127 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2011 4:43:58 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/26/2010
Posts: 34
Location: Nairobi
Yikes, stocks master really is the master, at least i got KK in good time.. average 10% up..problem is now the other stocks in my small portfolio.. sigh..
Jamaa wa mjengo
young
#128 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2011 4:55:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Bravo SM,

Speculators should learn that in your choice of stocks ensure if you miss the capital gains, do not miss the dividend,

and

Time still plays a major factor in achieving your capital gain targets.

finally

There are always missed opportunities (KCB, EQTY,JUB etc) , as only God is perfect in this game.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#129 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2011 5:21:37 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria

BTW

It has clearly shown that stocks speculation is not as easy as ABC as most of us think.
Speculation is an easy go in the bull cycle of the market.

When the market is flat or bearish, Jesus Christ !!!

Not every day (year) is chrismas.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
tony stark
#130 Posted : Thursday, June 30, 2011 6:01:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
The market slump seems to have affected Wazua.
@Stockmaster hongera. 10% in 4 months in a market slump is a great effort!
Lesson learnt fundamentals are essential in long term and short term!
16 Pages«<1112131415>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.