I think two problems reside at the root of the global financial crisis:
1. Toxic assets residing in bank balance sheets
2. (Poorly regulated) human greed - making profits at any cost (sub-prime mortgage crisis)
The world economic recovery will have legs when the capital tied by the unwanted assets is released by being purchased by the private sector with subsidy or incentive from the US government as well as better financial sector regulation undertaken.
Both issues more so the toxic assets buyback have been given considerable consideration in the US stimulus package where this *hit started. The economic freefall has considerably deccelerated in the recent past and this augurs well for the investor to make bargain picks in a battered market ahead of the foreseable future recovery. It goes without saying companies will come out of this period a lot stronger - meaner,leaner - more efficient than they ever were in the period preceding this as well as a generation of entreprenuers whose employment bubble has gone burst.
NB: localise Warren Buffets -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8030727.stm
We continue to expect and experience not so pretty SECONDARY effects of the above from unemployment to budget deficits. However emerging markets like ours present the best opportunities for select bargain picks. For the NSE,we can say we've seen the bottom. Pullbacks by speculators here and there don't stop a price recovery for select counters. Save,save but don't forget to invest! The rise will not be meteoric but will in the overall view be quite something.
I recall urging investors to make picks of KCB and AccessKenya at a time they were trading at Ksh. 15.35/= in the not so distant past. They've since risen by over 30%. Remind yourself why 'invest' in the NSE in the first place and the strategy that could work for you.
Locally,unless we go to war over Migingo or the HBC,the worst is behind the general NSE investing public. If you think agriculturals or financials are doomed or running slower than you wish,why not try the ICT sector in East Africa? it is about to blow up in the mid-term! Sentiment is +vely high there and we all know what that means on the NSE...for locals and foreigners. For the mid-term,I say invest in well managed ICT related listed companies! As I say,I'm putting my money where my mouth is!