wazua Tue, Mar 31, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

16 Pages123>»
Transcentury IPO
Kenyan Insider
#1 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 12:56:01 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 2/22/2011
Posts: 1
Guys, if you had the opportunity to get in on this action before the listing would you take it?
erifloss
#2 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 7:55:54 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Kenyan Insider wrote:
Guys, if you had the opportunity to get in on this action before the listing would you take it?

Cautiously, i think a high premium has already been factored into the share as of now coz of the proposed IPO. There's another thread discussing the same, risks attached to the firm are also high.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 22, 2011 7:59:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Such an uncanny resemblance with Firestone listing
drake
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2011 8:56:35 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/8/2009
Posts: 170
Chance to get the C.E.O and Strategy head to answer your tough questions at MindSpeak. [RSVP]

28th May, Michael Joseph Hall, SafaricomHouse

http://www.rich.co.ke/
erifloss
#5 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 12:00:26 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Valued at 47 on a promising future. What a joke, guys will get burnt badly in this coz pe is over 30 in a sector where the pe is at around 10-14. Same game as safcom of going to a foreign firm for valuation so as to give a notion of transparency & strong fundamentals.
www.businessdailyafrica....18/-/2pl9hj/-/index.html
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 1:00:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
I am staying out until I know more... I will read the IM but very cautious on this one!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ngapat
#7 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 10:23:19 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 930
@25, my valuation
“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
tony stark
#8 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 10:52:50 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
ngapat wrote:
@25, my valuation

Based on what book value, earnings ??
The price OTC a few weeks ago before they closed the book at Dyer and Blair was 50- 60 bob.
Can you explain how you came to this value? Ama it was your gut(duodenum, ileum, stomach or rectum) feeling?

@ VVS im also waiting this out. Can not get a handle on the value of this company and with diversification into Africa this guys can cook the books and value the company holding at a huge premium. History of political patronage, the messed up RVR deal and now the gover is building a rival railway.... Nikubaya.
That is only in Kenya what happening to their holdings in other countries. I learned a lesson from Olympia I still need more info.
ProverB
#9 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:09:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Kenyan Insider wrote:
Guys, if you had the opportunity to get in on this action before the listing would you take it?


i would. but largely because i'v been building up an investment fund..and as time goes at some point it will be too big for me. I gues that makes me more of a stakeholder in the industry than share holder..thus favor counters seemingly espousing my vision..centum etc.. of course NOT Olympia. smile

..the family ties between current ceo and the state-house bother me though.. politics interference becomes more of a probability than a possibility.

I guess the question is .. why do you want it?
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
erifloss
#10 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:41:17 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
tony stark wrote:
ngapat wrote:
@25, my valuation

Based on what book value, earnings ??
The price OTC a few weeks ago before they closed the book at Dyer and Blair was 50- 60 bob.
Can you explain how you came to this value? Ama it was your gut(duodenum, ileum, stomach or rectum) feeling?

@ VVS im also waiting this out. Can not get a handle on the value of this company and with diversification into Africa this guys can cook the books and value the company holding at a huge premium. History of political patronage, the messed up RVR deal and now the gover is building a rival railway.... Nikubaya.
That is only in Kenya what happening to their holdings in other countries. I learned a lesson from Olympia I still need more info.

At a price of 47, that's a pe of 36. why buy the share on a promising future. Some analysis of their 2010 figures below.
erifloss wrote:
Looking at the Financial statements, i am sure that these guys are cashing out. Reasons:
1. At a price of around 35 at the OTC with an EPS of 1.29, the share is at a p/e of around 27 & with a div of 0.20 a yield of 1%. They do know it is overpriced in this kind of a market. I presume the div will be paid out of div received from EACBL(Note EACBL's good payout though profits declined)
2.Profits from operating activities only increased by 22% while PBT by 20%. Can't buy when the operational profit & PBT only increase by that much at the above p/e.
3. This is the part where it starts getting funny coz Income tax reduces from 292M to 162M making the PAT go up by a significant 99.7%.
4.What makes the EPS grow from 0.34 to 1.29 is on other comprehensive incomes:
- Revaluation of PPE up 62%
- Net change in fair value of available for sale financial assets up 627% (Unrealised)
- Available for sale released on disposal of quoted shares up 3,824%
- Exchange diff on translation of subsidiaries up 976% (Unrealised.RVR, kewberg,Tanelec, Cableries du Congo & Avery are also not a quoted companies(i stand corrected) & i'd love to see their financials)
- other comprehensive income up 410%
- Total comprehensive income up 266%
Keenly look at where the leap in EPS has come from!
5. Part of their special resolution reads:' That the following be considered and, if thought fit, passed as a SPECIAL RESOLUTION:
“That the Board be authorised to establish an equity participation programme for the management, with a view to
aligning management with the long term interests of shareholders, and that 10% of the authorised but unissued
share capital of the Company be reserved for this purpose, subject to the requisite regulatory approvals”.'
Is this part of ESOP or is it for CMA regulations of ensuring existing shareholders don't leave the company hanging.

With all of the above i'm awaiting to see how the interested public are going to make money off the share and how i can be convinced that these guys are not cashing out in any way

'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
16 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.