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War - Iran vs Israel
ecstacy
#1 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 7:59:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
with all the sabre rattling in the Gulf from Iran and Israel's vowed determination to stop Iran acquiring nukes/WMDs,hypothetically,what effect do you a war in the middle-east have on the NSE?
mtaalam
#2 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 8:32:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/2/2006
Posts: 519
If such a war erupted believe me the NSE would be the least of my/our worries.

Bright and interesting people talk about ideas.
Those of average intelligence talk about things.
Stupid people talk about other people.
FundamentAli
#3 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 8:44:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
News of such a war would push oil prices up. But if the war happens,the whole world would have to be involved.

Baada ya dhiki,faaraja
ecstacy
#4 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 9:19:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
So..If fuel prices edge higher,KQ's hedging arrangement will have it move positively into the profitability zone...
ecstacy
#5 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 10:48:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
I think for the NSE,local (EA) Wanjiku retail involvement is largely IPO driven with their fund managers bringing in the stability. Foreign and diaspora influence is significant as evidenced by the effect of fund repatraition and effect of diaspora remittances...one may just be 'shocked' by the effect of a hyped IPO prior to a Kenyan election...
Djinn
#6 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 11:10:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
If we recall the terror attacks in mumbai by pakistanis and also the al shabaab activity in our region,I think war with Iran will bring out all these terror groups in droves across the region from India to East Africa - anywhere with western interests or western sympathisers.

At 9/11 it was really just the US - after that we have seen the net getting cast wider to include pro-US countries - remember Bali? Remember the Cricket team attack? If Israel dares attack (or is encouraged by the US) to attack Iran,that will be the last straw...we were hit in 1998 for simply hosting an embassy (likewise Tanzania)....how much better off are we now,especially having let our own be profiled and shipped off to Guantanamo bay?

Israel already has the Palestinian militias chipping at its sides,a dozing Egypt that can awaken,Libya,Sudan that has been criminalised,etc the US is already OVERCOMMITED in Afghanistan (where that war is already turning into another Vietnam) and also in Iraq (where everyone is literally having a blast). Trouble is brewing in South America (Honduras,Venezuela - even Brazil is stepping into the foray to help Honduras).

China is HUGE and while it may not take any sides,it may choose to be neutral if only to benefit from the spoils of such a war. Russia still remains a wild card despite efforts by the US to 'reset' relations with it - they remain an unknown quantity. Oil will go up,cost of business too (costly products),cost of living (less buying power,less earnings)

The problem with equality is that we desire that it be with those that have more than us rather that those that have less
Mwekahazina
#7 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 11:24:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 21
My wish list - 'They just make up and....Big Hug !!!

Mtaalam is right,NSE'll be the least of our worries.
ecstacy
#8 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 3:57:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
you right on the backlash..if security not handled well..tourism sector will suffer significantly..however I don't think Al-Shaabab need a mid-east war as motivation to strike in Kenya,so far so..... on the NSE - global link..as happened at the height of the global financial crisis,I believe companies with heavy foreign exposure may pullback their investments if the war is headed WW3...ARM,EABL,Equity and Safaricom seem to be their current favourites
Kusadikika
#9 Posted : Monday, September 28, 2009 9:24:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 2,718
Iran - Israel war is unlikely to happen. If it does it will be as part of the third world war. The stakes are too big and as all have said NSE will be the least of our worries. The reasons are as follows:
Iran is the world's 4th largest oil producer and world's 3rd largest exporter with most of the oil going to China and Japan. Any war would disrupt this supply and I don't think energy hungry China would take this kindly.
Iran sits at at a very strategic place in the Persian Gulf through which a lot of oil flows. The gulf at some places of the Iranian coast is quite narrow so war would not just interfere with Iranian oil supply but also Iraqi oil that has to pass through the gulf.
Iran has missiles that can hit well inside Israel.
Israelis are nasty people who respond with 100 bombs for every harmless rocket,I wonder how they would respond to a few bombs.....oh... they also have nuclear weapons.
My take is the US and China would not allow such a war to take place.

Weusi wa nywele za mshtakiwa zaonyesha ujinga alio nao
Robinhood
#10 Posted : Tuesday, September 29, 2009 5:35:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/11/2008
Posts: 2,306
Many students of bible prophecy have been watching Iran's efforts to build a nuclear bomb with very keen interest. Any spat between Israel and Iran happening now would possibly be to build up tensions for an eventual conflict which would most certainly turn nuclear assuming Iran manages to build a bomb within the next few years. With Iran straddling the all important straight of Hormuz,even a very localised war with Israel would very soon draw in not just the usual Jihadist riff raff,but world powers possibly pulling in opposite directions. In addition,Iran has indicated that they will mine the straights if attacked,closing them off to international shipping and sparking major trouble from China. With the world economy now so reliant on Chinese manufacturing,and ME oil,world trade would almost come to a stand still. As other have put it,the NSE would be the last of worries. I believe that a conflict between Israel and Iran would be fulfilment of bible prophesy.



God is good
Great men are not always wise, neither do the aged understand judgement...
kingfisher
#11 Posted : Tuesday, September 29, 2009 6:21:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/9/2008
Posts: 2,824
Hiyo vita haiwesekani!!!!

I know of two countries that have the ability and capability to control the world,and they do.....and they always will,at least for now.

And I know of two countries the west will always wish to control economically and politically but they cant.......and even if they applied sanctions they will just be useless.

These are:-

1. Mother Russia
2. Persia (present day Iran).

Why? Together they control over 40% of the world gas supply. Actually they keep europe warm in winter and cool in summer. They are the kings.

see here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/e...rnational/reserves.html

No european country can let US or Israel play toy with Iran ..... they will just be frozen to death.

Otherwise if it were for Oil US and company could have gone to Persia long time!!! A small disruption of oil supply for a few months is ok...but the slightest disruption of gas supply to europe even for a week is unacceptable,absolutely!! Do you remember JSC Gazprom Neft? Wakinyamba europe huhara!!

If you have money that you expect to start using in five years,it now belongs in stocks.
When I have money, I get rid of it quickly, lest it find a way into my heart.
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