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The long bear
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dunkang
#61 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 9:11:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
KENYANS, brace yourselves for GOOOOOOOOD times ahead i.e. AFTER 2012!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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hisah
#62 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 9:45:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
erifloss wrote:
Lets look at this hypothetically. After listening to Ndung'u yesterday, i started thinking.
1.If the greek PM fails the no confidence vote today it means they can't pass any austerity measures within the 12 days remaining & most definately will default & go broke leaving most European & American banks with an exposure of about $2 trillion in Greece, Portugal & Spain.
2. With the above scenario everybody is dropping Euro dominated assets for the 'weakening' dollar & going to any market as long as its not European. Now if Kenya's currency is taken as weaker to the dollar & investors are looking for economies to park their cash at, Kenya becomes a destination only if political noise goes down & the shilling stabilizes at around 95.
3. Looking at this situation you'll realize that most of these 'investors' right now don't want to park their cash in Emerging & Frontier markets with strong currencies that can be easily affected by Greece's insolvency but in markets that they can easily control the dynamics within.
As Kenya if this is played right & with most of international multinational financial institutions within fully exposed in Europe, they might or are seriously looking at Africa & who says it can't be Kenya. Stanchart has opened its regional hq here which speaks volumes & as Ndung'u said yesterday we control inflation the rest of the chips will fall in place.

CBK has done a damn good job of price stabilization...

When the money boyz start opening regional hubs and dubbing Nairobi as a financial hub and the president calling for single digit lending rates, you know that the money explosion is about to launch.

When BBK and stanchart introduce mkopo wa salo again at less than 10%, buy up the stock market. When mortgage rates are lowered below 10%, go for low end real estate. Then sit tight for a serious bubble inflation aka bull market... If by then international banksters will be primary dealers (PDs) of the bond market then @guru could get her 15yr bull rally!?

Quote:
To win against the casino, befriend the owners.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#63 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 10:17:20 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
erifloss wrote:
Lets look at this hypothetically. After listening to Ndung'u yesterday, i started thinking.
1.If the greek PM fails the no confidence vote today it means they can't pass any austerity measures within the 12 days remaining & most definately will default & go broke leaving most European & American banks with an exposure of about $2 trillion in Greece, Portugal & Spain.
2. With the above scenario everybody is dropping Euro dominated assets for the 'weakening' dollar & going to any market as long as its not European. Now if Kenya's currency is taken as weaker to the dollar & investors are looking for economies to park their cash at, Kenya becomes a destination only if political noise goes down & the shilling stabilizes at around 95.
3. Looking at this situation you'll realize that most of these 'investors' right now don't want to park their cash in Emerging & Frontier markets with strong currencies that can be easily affected by Greece's insolvency but in markets that they can easily control the dynamics within.
As Kenya if this is played right & with most of international multinational financial institutions within fully exposed in Europe, they might or are seriously looking at Africa & who says it can't be Kenya. Stanchart has opened its regional hq here which speaks volumes & as Ndung'u said yesterday we control inflation the rest of the chips will fall in place.

CBK has done a damn good job of price stabilization...

When the money boyz start opening regional hubs and dubbing Nairobi as a financial hub and the president calling for single digit lending rates, you know that the money explosion is about to launch.

When BBK and stanchart introduce mkopo wa salo again at less than 10%, buy up the stock market. When mortgage rates are lowered below 10%, go for low end real estate. Then sit tight for a serious bubble inflation aka bull market... If by then international banksters will be primary dealers (PDs) of the bond market then @guru could get her 15yr bull rally!?

Quote:
To win against the casino, befriend the owners.

These to posts have been put together with great thought. Kudos! @hisah.. I dig the quote!
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Genghis Khan
#64 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 11:32:19 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
...bears make money...

I am not planning on selling anything else this year...

I hate that USD is @90, oil, infaltion, rain, etc. ... but generally the fundamentals don't look as grim, I expect most companies to still grow profits... no?

I will buy in small bits all the way to the floor (if thats where we are going)... na ikipanda bado tunanunua kidogokidogo... bei ya mkate ikishuka, furahia unless you are a baker!

@deal... "KCB has underperformed market for 4yrs"... allow me to assume that since the price has not risen dramatically, then it is cheap. And i should buy?? (since it has remained profitable and will be more so)

I also think that any cash I hold will do much worse than stocks so I buy...
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, June 21, 2011 5:15 PM | Reason: Not specified
erifloss
#65 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 1:03:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
A little breather, the Greek govt has won the no confidence vote by 155 out of 298. They've bought some time though most analysts think Greek's fall is inevitable but at least people now have time to run.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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kenyainvesting.blogspot.com
#66 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 8:06:06 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 3/29/2011
Posts: 56
Location: Kenya
Read up on how the current high inflation will affect the Nairobi Stock Exchange

LINK:LIKELY IMAPACT OF HIGH INFLATION ON THE NSE
MY BLOG: Kenya Investing
BE MY FRIEND ON FACEBOOK: Kenya Investing Facebook Page
TWITTER HANDLE: @kenyainvestor
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WWW
  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, June 22, 2011 8:07 AM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#67 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 9:29:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian.
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Cde Monomotapa
#68 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 9:35:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
When analysts and the media are saying Bear Bear Bear...its the time to Buy....the NSE is oversold and Kenyan stocks are at their cheapest in the last 2 years so be a Contrarian.

Confessions of a Media man? Lol!
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obiero
#69 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:20:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,251
Location: nairobi
@ deal @cde.. What do u have to say for yourselves on KNRE. I told u it will shake downwards. i appear on the IM of 2007 as one of the main shareholders but now I have freed myself of that cursed firm. Will not buy it even at KES 8. Good riddance.
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Cde Monomotapa
#70 Posted : Wednesday, June 22, 2011 11:24:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
obiero wrote:
@ deal @cde.. What do u have to say for yourselves on KNRE. I told u it will shake downwards. i appear on the IM of 2007 as one of the main shareholders but now I have freed myself of that cursed firm. Will not buy it even at KES 8. Good riddance.

I adviced u to sell & relax. That's all.
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