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The long bear
Cde Monomotapa
#51 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 4:41:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Hahaha...all this chicken licken sky is falling. As if this is the 1st time our currency has lost value. Kes.was @ 60-63 for the longest time ever before it slipped all the way to 80 after 07/08 elections. But as soon as we were through with effx of post election & drought in 2010 the economy was humming despite a 20 bob loss by Ke.s
Cde Monomotapa
#52 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 7:49:12 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Btw..i am enjoying the drizzles. This should see kitchen recurrents like veggies, potato, tomato, milk ease. I think there will be lower food inflation in H2. And also the ease in diesel & kerosene prices c/o fiscal intervention should contribute further somewhat.
guru267
#53 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 8:03:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Hahaha...all this chicken licken sky is falling. As if this is the 1st time our currency has lost value. Kes.was @ 60-63 for the longest time ever before it slipped all the way to 80 after 07/08 elections. But as soon as we were through with effx of post election & drought in 2010 the economy was humming despite a 20 bob loss by Ke.s


@Cde please make necessary preperations... The week before lehman brothers collapse analysts, investors and economists were grossly downplaying the problem all the way to the end..

Any default or restructuring in europe will make the lehman collapse look like childs play
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#54 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 8:13:17 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
guru267 wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Hahaha...all this chicken licken sky is falling. As if this is the 1st time our currency has lost value. Kes.was @ 60-63 for the longest time ever before it slipped all the way to 80 after 07/08 elections. But as soon as we were through with effx of post election & drought in 2010 the economy was humming despite a 20 bob loss by Ke.s


@Cde please make necessary preperations... The week before lehman brothers collapse analysts, investors and economists were grossly downplaying the problem all the way to the end..

Any default or restructuring in europe will make the lehman collapse look like childs play

If the concern is about foreigners pulling out of the NSE then I am listening. But then again..they will not have learnt that they are better off here as it were in 08/09 where as much as the NSE tanked..our banks still posted double digit growth in earnings. Me I am Kenyan with Pan-african interests, hapa ndo nakulia.
Cde Monomotapa
#55 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 8:22:38 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Infact, let them go bust. The oil markets have been over valued for far too long & with no fundamental basis whatsoever!
hisah
#56 Posted : Monday, June 20, 2011 11:57:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Infact, let them go bust. The oil markets have been over valued for far too long & with no fundamental basis whatsoever!

Thus the term global ponzinomics.

Glad to see that you'd not graduate from econ school since you question the system smile

You might end up like me - a school vigilante. Going to school just to question the system & make the lecturers hate you with a passion smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#57 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 12:44:07 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Infact, let them go bust. The oil markets have been over valued for far too long & with no fundamental basis whatsoever!

Thus the term global ponzinomics.

Glad to see that you'd not graduate from econ school since you question the system smile

You might end up like me - a school vigilante. Going to school just to question the system & make the lecturers hate you with a passion smile

Ati mkts r efficient. Pu!!
QW25071985
#58 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 8:03:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
craig wrote:
its a bear alright, and i actually hope it holds for a little longer...


i second, third,forth,fifth,sixth that !!!!!!!!!!!
the deal
#59 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 8:45:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
QW25071985 wrote:
craig wrote:
its a bear alright, and i actually hope it holds for a little longer...


i second, third,forth,fifth,sixth that !!!!!!!!!!!

A bear is never good...you might think buying KQ at 24 in a bear is a coup...only to see it fall to 15...never wish for pain.
erifloss
#60 Posted : Tuesday, June 21, 2011 8:54:08 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Lets look at this hypothetically. After listening to Ndung'u yesterday, i started thinking.
1.If the greek PM fails the no confidence vote today it means they can't pass any austerity measures within the 12 days remaining & most definately will default & go broke leaving most European & American banks with an exposure of about $2 trillion in Greece, Portugal & Spain.
2. With the above scenario everybody is dropping Euro dominated assets for the 'weakening' dollar & going to any market as long as its not European. Now if Kenya's currency is taken as weaker to the dollar & investors are looking for economies to park their cash at, Kenya becomes a destination only if political noise goes down & the shilling stabilizes at around 95.
3. Looking at this situation you'll realize that most of these 'investors' right now don't want to park their cash in Emerging & Frontier markets with strong currencies that can be easily affected by Greece's insolvency but in markets that they can easily control the dynamics within.
As Kenya if this is played right & with most of international multinational financial institutions within fully exposed in Europe, they might or are seriously looking at Africa & who says it can't be Kenya. Stanchart has opened its regional hq here which speaks volumes & as Ndung'u said yesterday we control inflation the rest of the chips will fall in place.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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