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Kenol Kobil HY 2011 - Profit Advice
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VituVingiSana
#91 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 12:01:45 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
erifloss wrote:
trizher wrote:

This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?

I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution.


Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period

They'll be getting a share of the dividends


The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed

Only vested/issued shares are eligible for dividends. And no the stock is not doomed even if all the shares in the ESOP vest immediately...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mwekez@ji
#92 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 12:02:09 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
jerry wrote:
Impunity wrote:
@jerry bidded 11, not'yet picked!And not going below.

@Impunity. If it doesn't touch 11/= tomorrow I'll revise my target price.


Is it that this share is slow in reacting to good news or is it that it is totally immune to the news d'oh!

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mwekez@ji
#93 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 12:34:17 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
erifloss wrote:
trizher wrote:

This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?

I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution.


Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period

They'll be getting a share of the dividends


The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed

Only vested/issued shares are eligible for dividends. And no the stock is not doomed even if all the shares in the ESOP vest immediately...


When they implement the ESOP, the shares under ESOP will become issued shares qualifying for dividend in the coming periods
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Cde Monomotapa
#94 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 8:30:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
the deal wrote:
Thats what good companies do..they release official profits advice.

Can't blame Kenyans..we'd rather profit warnings. LMAO!!
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VituVingiSana
#95 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 9:27:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Aarrghhh! I give up. Let folks read the Financial Statements & make their own conclusions... I recommend folks sell their KK when I am ready to buy!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#96 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 9:27:32 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
Individuals have very different way of looking at things,i have bought into KK from a price of 55 and at progressively higher prices thereafter,after the profit advise which only confirmed a growth trajectory that i like,i am buying all the way to 12 bob,cash allowing.No selling for the next 2 years ,unless of course it quickly rises to the higher 10s.
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VituVingiSana
#97 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 9:44:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
cnn wrote:
Individuals have very different way of looking at things,i have bought into KK from a price of 55 and at progressively higher prices thereafter,after the profit advise which only confirmed a growth trajectory that i like,i am buying all the way to 12 bob,cash allowing.No selling for the next 2 years ,unless of course it quickly rises to the higher 10s.
One of those IF I had the cash & biwott were to sell his shares... I would buy up the entire firm less the ESOP (to encourage the employees)...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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stocksmaster
#98 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:27:26 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
mwekez@ji wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
erifloss wrote:
trizher wrote:

This is unreal....why put the announcement 1 and a half moons away?........any ideas?

I think it might be coz they are preparing to offer shares under ESOP soon as they had earlier announced and don't want an early drop in price if or when they release a timetable for the same due to dilution.


Most ESOP have a lock in period of at least 3 years. KK ESOP is not likely to be an excemption to that lock in. In that case, the current share price will not be affected directly by the ESOP as the ESOP share be available for trading after the lock period

They'll be getting a share of the dividends


The dividend cake will have to be shared by many company owners. EPS & PE ratios will be affected. Definitely there will be dilution. At least if they create a lock in period, the ESOP shares will not drive down the share price in the medium term. If they dont create a good lock in period, this stock is doomed


The Dilutional Effect on the issue of 140M ESOP shares is: 140M/1472M x 100% = 9.5%
Half year 2011 vs Half Year 2010 (Net Profit) will be > 50%.

If my shareholding is to be diluted at 9.5% so that employees are motivated to give me a return on my investment of > 50%, thats makes investment sense!! Am gaining > 40% in EPS, so how can the share be doomed? For the year 2011,this company if it maintains the momentum will be posting an EPS of between Ksh 2 - Ksh 2.2 and with its generous dividend policy, the total dividends for 2011 should be approximately between Ksh 0.75 - Ksh 1.00.

As i posted earlier, any price below Ksh 15 for this share is a steal.

My exit target for my sizeable KK holding is a price of Ksh 20 in March 2013 (100% capital gain in 20 months).

Happy hunting.
x handle: @stocksmaster79
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VituVingiSana
#99 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 12:38:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Dear @Stocksmaster, please delete your post. I am still a buyer & I do not want people to get moto moto over KK. Sincerely, VVS
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mwanahisa
#100 Posted : Thursday, June 16, 2011 12:42:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear @Stocksmaster, please delete your post. I am still a buyer & I do not want people to get moto moto over KK. Sincerely, VVS


Seconded, and I already have a nice chunksmile .
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