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the deal
#21 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 9:45:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mkonomtupu wrote:
I'm with @guru on the bullish east african economy after 2012. Uganda is currently arguing with tullow on the amount of oil to be produced per day, tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years and uganda thinks that will shock the economies of east africa economies. Heck even somalia is looking bullish flights to mogadishu are fully booked. I just hope raila if he gets elected will not pick up fights with M7, the stakes for 2012 are high.

@deal, where do you think you are going, we need your analysis some of us can't do numbers. But i love the pessimism it's always time to buy on low valuations

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Oil can not guarantee economic success look at Nigeria...M7 and his mates can splash all those billions on private jets and other things.what E.A. needs is political stability.
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, June 14, 2011 9:48 AM | Reason: Not specified
keke2
#22 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 10:29:13 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 89
the deal wrote:
@young i might be here but 100% of my funds come from home...so i'm just like you...i plan to exit the Kenyan market over the coarse of the year...i'm a firm believer in the Namibian economy...its well diversified unlike Botswana we dont solely depend on diamonds...its well managed...there is political stability...i believe the economy will growth average 4.8-6% every year over the the next 5-10 years barring any recession...thats where i wanna go long term not here..so in Kenya i speculate with all my portifolio and repertriate the gains thats what all the foreign investors are doing...that strategy has worked supeer fine for me thus far...unless there is political stability in Kenya i will never go long term...mention 2012 to anyone here they get scared...i came to Kenya in 2007 in October and 2 month down the line Kenya was burning and the NSE was on its knees...i dont want any of that.

@deal and Young,Please enlighten on this,If I earn in foreign currency,spend in foreign currency but squeeze the surplus and invest in Ksh NSE what does it make me??
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VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 11:43:03 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years
You can buy a KShs 200 [$2.30] calculator on River Road.

200,000 x $100 = $20,000,000 not $2,000,000,000
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 11:45:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
The Ugandan oil is waxy. It will cost a lot more to produce & refine vs light sweet crude oil. That said... Uganda will benefit but the real (significant) benefits do not accrue until at least 2015...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mkonomtupu
#25 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 12:34:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
VituVingiSana wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
tullow wants to produce 200,000 barrels per day by 2015 (that's $2billion dollars a day) for the next 25 years
You can buy a KShs 200 [$2.30] calculator on River Road.

200,000 x $100 = $20,000,000 not $2,000,000,000


I have said clearly in the post i cant do numbers that's why i hire a bean-counter(accountant) who is just adding to my operating expenses. I like looking at global figures and picking up trends not good with details. That said...the point is the oil cash will drive up consumption and the prospects look good
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VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 1:42:19 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
@mm - The cost so extracting & refining the oil will be substantial [also most of the extraction will be using imported machinery] so the Uganda economy numbers may look good but 'profits' do not stay there.

Will Uganda benefit? Yes. When? 2015 (substantial benefits). How much? Not $20mn/day but a lower figure.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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dave.kim
#27 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 2:12:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
but the fact that we'll have the product at close proximity and exports may be passing thru our port will be good for Kenya
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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VituVingiSana
#28 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 2:33:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
dave.kim wrote:
but the fact that we'll have the product at close proximity and exports may be passing thru our port will be good for Kenya
Not necessarily.
Most likely there will be little to export since most of it will be used regionally - Tanzania, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, etc. Will Kenya (directly) benefit? Yes, just not to the extent people think.

The INDIRECT benefits will be important e.g. KQ, RVR, etc
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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young
#29 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 2:38:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,075
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Bwana @VVS and others, there is no point arguing as it will be a round robin arguement , leave it to time or let knowledgeable Ugandan well versed in emerging Ugandan Petroleum development in Lake Albert (western region) to conclude.


Congo for example is a petroleum producer with a refinery !!!
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, June 14, 2011 3:24 PM | Reason: Not specified
the deal
#30 Posted : Tuesday, June 14, 2011 3:08:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The title of this thread is misleading...LMAO.
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