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EQUITY vs KCB
earthvoice
#1 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 1:05:36 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/29/2011
Posts: 257
I've been following the duel between Equity and KCB for a while now, at least in terms of share prices, and there doesn't seem to be much between them. For example, Equity is currently trading at ~ KSh25.00 while KCB is at ~ KSh25.50-25.75, as opposed to earlier in the year when Equity peaked at KSh 30.00 and KCB was at KSh 23.50-24.00.

My questions are:

- in your opinion, between Equity and KCB, which is the better bet for medium to long-term investment?

- following the conclusion of the prolonged sell-off by the foreign investor(s) that led to the price dip seen in recent weeks, is Equity expected to recover its pre-dividend price of KSh 27.00-28.00 any time soon?
d'oh! d'oh!
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
the deal
#2 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 2:11:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Eqty Bank profits will embarass KCB...i expect profits to be between Sh 11-12 B...Equity is making a kill in SS...UG will contribute more billions this year about 7.5% of profits...huge transaction volumes from mkesho and agency banking...wait for a report on Equity on my blog soon.
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 5:16:45 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Not another beef Sad
guru267
#4 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 6:46:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Eqty Bank profits will embarass KCB...i expect profits to be between Sh 11-12 B...Equity is making a kill in SS...UG will contribute more billions this year about 7.5% of profits...huge transaction volumes from mkesho and agency banking...wait for a report on Equity on my blog soon.


@the deal equity and KCB have for the past years had similar profits and 2011 will be no different..
I also forecast 11billion profits for KCB in 2011 meaning that KCB's EPS will likely embarass that of equity bank so why would I buy equity over KCB??

I think KCB's strategy to reduce cost to income ratio from 67% to 50% and boost return on assets to 5% in just 2 years is a ver ambitious plan but if it carries through it will boost the profit growth trajectory beyond equity bank..
These ratios provided by KCB therefore project 2012 profits before taxto come in at 15.5billion..
@the deal you forget to mention that KCB's regional subsidiaries are also in profits as of q1 2011..

In terms of quality, value and growth KCB share at current prices currently trumps equity hands down as will soon be reflected in the two share prices.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
QW25071985
#5 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 7:23:38 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
@ earthvoice . if its a price rally you are asking for forget it.Large institutional traders who drive up the price arent there since the begining of the year..Mostly the selling we saw on equity the last couple of weeks was just profit taking.Hence the stagnating price w/ huge volumes.
i believe if you have money and can stomach the uncertainity of 2012 you shld buy equity bank...all time high for the price is at 30.00 and you bet if we cross that price it will skyrocket !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the deal
#6 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 7:53:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Guru in SS Eqty is making almost the same profit as KCB from 3 branches vs KCB's 11...when JM says they will match last years perfomance believe him...in 2011 20% of profits are coming outside Kenya...he has a road map for the region and all i'm saying is watch out...
Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 8:06:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
He (JM) has a roadmap for the region.. KCB are already in the region! Exercise the mind on business cylces and it will answer the question of why the institutional & or foreign investor exodus out of Equity into KCB Group.
the deal
#8 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 8:14:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@cde there is a difference of being there and achieve nothing for several years and go there and outdo your rivals within 2 years...people exit counters for many reasons i.e somebody who bought KCB 3 yrs at 32 bob is still in losses today...while Eqty has created and will continue to create value...i think most underestimate the monster Eqty has become and profits of Sh 12B in 2011 will just confirm that...
Cde Monomotapa
#9 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 8:17:47 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
..and a difference btwn Green field Operations (KCB) & over priced acquistions (EBL)
the deal
#10 Posted : Thursday, June 09, 2011 8:21:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
..and a difference btwn Green field Operations (KCB) & over priced acquistions (EBL)

Equity UG has turned within 3 years how long did it take KCB TZ to post meare profits? do you know the potential Eqty UG has? damn comparing Eqty to Kcb is a waaste of time.
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