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Capital Gains Tax - What if it is reintroduced?
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 2:31:25 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
There has been discussion of this in various fora. Given the big hole between expected Goverment revenues and increasing expenditure, some pundits have actually been advocating for its return. Assuming that Uhuru goes for it tomorrow or at some point in the future, what do you guys think will be its impact?

I for one think it will kill off an already struggling stock market. On the other hand, it might just manage to tame the runaway surge in property prices. Or will it?
hisah
#2 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 2:37:48 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Would one rather introduce such measures during a slump or a boom?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mwanahisa
#3 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 2:43:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
hisah wrote:
Would one rather introduce such measures during a slump or a boom?


I would expect it during a boom. Note that I am certainly not for it, either now or later. But for argument's sake, it appears like G.o.K may be running out of wiggle room. Just how much debt can they keep piling on?
hisah
#4 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 2:47:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwanahisa wrote:
hisah wrote:
Would one rather introduce such measures during a slump or a boom?


I would expect it during a boom. Note that I am certainly not for it, either now or later. But for argument's sake, it appears like G.o.K may be running out of wiggle room. Just how much debt can they keep piling on?


This is why I'm afraid the gubberment will make the wrong move out of desperation to raise funds.

Capital gain tax with the current NSE mood will just increase the selling momentum. As for real estate I think this should be fair. Infact they could introduce capital gains targeting particular investments for the time being. It is not a good choice, but it gives them some room to move around.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
mlennyma
#5 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 2:54:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
This is the easiest way to chase away a good bunch of foreigh investors.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mkonomtupu
#6 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 3:04:36 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
it will kill speculation and reduce turnover at the nse it will be a game-changer, it might spark off a short term selling spree. Actually capital gains is must easier to administer at the nse than on property. for property it will go back to the old practice of putting paper price for land transactions and the real value exchanged later.

in 2006 the MPs rejected Kimunya attempt to re-introduce it(stocks were exempt) as it affected their substantial property holding but this time round with kenyans going to the streets over unga, shrinking government revenues, a costly constitution this looks it might pass
Mainat
#7 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 3:54:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
The rationale for a tax on capital gains has always escaped me. This is especially so in a country like ours which has a serious lack of investment avenues.
Since Uhuru et al cannot bring themselves to do the following which actually makes sense but will also reduce the likely deficit:
1. Reduce recurrent expenditure by moving to the 24 member cabinet; reducing defence spending or alternatively widening the mandate the army’s mandate to include border defence.
2. Widen the tax population to include all GoK members that currently don’t pay tax. Removing tax relief for newly listed companies (it doesn’t make sense, if you are going to list you are going o list regardless of the tax relief)
Let cgt be aimed at speculative investments. Those buying property, shares et al for a quick buck should be taxed because this is a non-value adding activity. Speculative investment can be defined as any buying and selling done within 12 or 18 months.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
mlennyma
#8 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 4:06:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Speculation creates liquidity which is very good in any market,otherwise its only the rich who can afford locking huge chunks of money for more than a year.i fear the small investors might just quit the nse.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
anika66
#9 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 4:45:12 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/25/2010
Posts: 158
Mainat wrote:
The rationale for a tax on capital gains has always escaped me. This is especially so in a country like ours which has a serious lack of investment avenues.
Since Uhuru et al cannot bring themselves to do the following which actually makes sense but will also reduce the likely deficit:
1. Reduce recurrent expenditure by moving to the 24 member cabinet; reducing defence spending or alternatively widening the mandate the army’s mandate to include border defence.
2. Widen the tax population to include all GoK members that currently don’t pay tax. Removing tax relief for newly listed companies (it doesn’t make sense, if you are going to list you are going o list regardless of the tax relief)
Let cgt be aimed at speculative investments. Those buying property, shares et al for a quick buck should be taxed because this is a non-value adding activity. Speculative investment can be defined as any buying and selling done within 12 or 18 months.

I dont agree with Mainat on this. It looks like each time the government needs to raise money only the salaried must be taxed to raise it. We known there is alot of money in real estate and the government needs to move in this arena and harverst from these money makers. Capital gain on real estate should be made compulsory, any person who cheats on the sale price for their property should be arrested and charged for corruption and other malpractices. We should have a law on this and parliament should put the interest of the country at heart, not just the benefits for the members who are the main owners of all the properties we are seeing around. This will reduce corruption as people will be forced to pay tax on real estates and it will bring down the cost of these properties....i dont know if i am making any economic argument here...but thats what i think
Keeping it all in the family
yekeyeke
#10 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2011 4:46:40 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/4/2008
Posts: 345
Such a move would probably work in the NSE,but end up killing local investors interest, in the stock market, which was the ultimate aim of the government, but not the property market like land or houses. This is simply because of demand and supply.
There are too many people with pent up demand and land and buildings /houses are in very short supply.
This would mean that the buyers would simply avoid the tax by adding it on top of the property prices. This would in effect make the property prices unaffordable, making nonsense of the government efforts of making housing affordable and with the current housing crisis, your guess is as good as mine as to what the majority of Kenyans would be able to afford.....

My take. No capital gains tax in Kenya for the foreseeable future.
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