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Mumias Sugar Company Interim Results.
Gordon Gekko
#21 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 1:28:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@kiz,price increase doesn't translate to extra earnings. Sugar is an elastic good,as price increases,demand falls. The increased amount in the price is most probably cash for the middle man,not MSC.
Kiz
#22 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 2:44:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 13
@ Gekko

If they are gaining nothing from the price increases then it'll be agood reason to sale and quick.

@ Mainat

The guys got PPA with KPLC @ 6 US cts per unit. This translates to about ksh 4.8 per unit. Assume they sale to KPLC 26MW. It translates like(assume 300 days operation)

26000*24*300 *4.8= 898560000

assume operational expenses of 398m,they get a cool 500M PTA. Unless to you 500M is not much


Kim
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 2:52:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Jana a sugar transporter told me that last year their trucks had to wait in line for sugar at Mumias (warias were paying kitu kidogo to jump the queue) to pick up sugar.

Leo,there are NO lines. For big buyers,Mumias is hiring trucks to deliver sugar!

Demand is DOWN: Drought. U can't buy unga. Ati,u will buy sukari?

Supply is hampered by militant farmers: The farmers are their worst enemies. The push for higher cane prices which means smugglers are bringing in sugar from other countries.

COMESA: Duty down from 100% to 70%. Sudan,Malawi & Swaziland have excess to sell to Kenyans.

PLUSES:

Electricity Generation: The cost is fixed i.e. free electricity from baggasse (waste product) & one-time cost of generation plant (except upgrades & maintenance) & additional labor costs. Otherwise PURE profit & KPLC will buy everything they can get!

Efficiency: Mumias is the 2nd most efficient firm

BUT... times are tough for Mumias!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 2:54:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
If Mumias has forex loans... watalia tena!

What currency did they borrow in coz if US$,they will have forex losses as well as increased interest payments.

If GBP,then they are lucky but I think it is in Euros (PROPARCO being their partner).

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
slykat
#25 Posted : Saturday, January 31, 2009 4:18:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
I am like the xter with the big sniff-nose in Rushdie's Midnight Children. So,I can sniff a ponzi or a conman with a biz deal from 5 miles away,but Mumias! The allure of sweet sugar blinded my unmarched sense of sniffing.

Mumias is faaaaaalling like 'Angel Gabrielle' in Satanic Verses,(Muslims,pls forgive me but to satisfy my intellectual curiosity,I do read indiscriminately) and is thus far - the worst investment decision I ever made,bought at 13 a yr ago,failed to cut losses b4 -15%.

Now am aloof-just-like-Baks and will do nothing as it falls angelically. Only consolation is that I only bought a small qnty. Kumbe sometimes idling is the better deal....!? Ahaaa. Lemme make make a cuppa,this time without sugar - to preserve my sniff-nose!

When buying shares,ask yourself,would you buy the whole company?
jerry
#26 Posted : Saturday, January 31, 2009 5:02:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
Started at 43 pre-bonus. Now @ 5 bob I've lost 50% in my 9,200 shares that I'm holding. Shud I buy more at sub 5.00 or sell at 5.50?

Ecs 11.2 Give portions to seven,yes to eight,for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
VituVingiSana
#27 Posted : Saturday, January 31, 2009 2:09:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
Why apologize for reading anything? Satanic Verses is not child porn. Most of the jamaas who were protesting against SV did not even see the book,let alone read it! And those who read it did not even understand it!

A narrow mind is full of hatred. Broaden your mind & the world awaits you!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#28 Posted : Tuesday, February 17, 2009 2:36:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Todays Smart Company. Mumias attributed 73% drop to 1 month's inactivity,strike by farmers and transporters. But they will make up (i.e last year's sums) in the second half through the generation project which will bring US$1M each month from April (240M for 3 months). They made 230M in the first half. There is also US$10M to come from carbon credits. Loan repayments will eat quite a bit of the US$1M,but the carbon cash is all bottom line.

If Kidero's projections are correct,Ksh 4 a share is a major bargain.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#29 Posted : Tuesday, February 17, 2009 3:48:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
Mumius has to be a bargain for long-termers

They are quite determined to persue the TARDA deal and see it through,if this happens,the company will successfully turn the corner.

About the power deal,any reason why they did not sell directly to KPLC?

Why did they have to sell to KG (read middleman),who adds absolutely no value,marks up the cost,then passes it to KPLC and on to the poor Kenyans!




I guess if you can't win with facts,you can always pen bile-laced,xenophobic rants to distract everyone.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
Njunge
#30 Posted : Wednesday, February 18, 2009 5:51:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Obi,

Mumias sells to KPLC and not Kengen

@Gekko,

Power generation proper starts in late March or early Avril.....Factor in stabilising andpost commisioning tuning.....That takes you to end od April and leaves you with two months in this financial year....What impact would it make on books?....talk about next financial year but i totally agree...........At 4 bob......they don't come better.


Guka wa bijuti...
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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