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Mumias Sugar Company Interim Results.
eli
#11 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:34:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 294
Fear set in at NSE,and people started bidding at 4bob ( lowest)! I managed to sell mine at 5bob,making a cool 1bob loss!

Anyway,fear not! Demand is slowly building........I guess 3bob or even 2bob is far too low! The share could settle at 4-5bob range! Well,that is my guess!

But you shall remember the LORD your God,for it is He who is giving you power to make wealth,that He may confirm His covenant which He swore to your fathers,as it is this day. Deu 8:18
jammo
#12 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:38:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
@kyt.... Not really. May be next time investors won't peg such high dreams on decision to buy a stock... Stock down 15% today..what do u do? Ignore lamenting n cursing. What decision do u need to make n make now! Sorry for the word but 'shit' happens. Make the best of it. Otherwise..disclaimers are nice to consider while takin advice. Mumias as a longterm investment has suddenly increased that longterm definition to much much longer. Portfolio realignin.... cost average...or write off as loss and salvage what u can... What will u do? Do it soon.

The race is not always to the swift..nor the battle always to the strong..nor food always to the wise..nor riches always to the intelligent..favor is not always to the skilled..or learned..but time and chance happens to all. Ecl9:5..
mypesa
#13 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 10:38:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/14/2007
Posts: 111
being a culprit of the 2nd ipo @49 i have been able to average to 9.75

with 13800 shares would it be advisable to sell at current losses or HANG on with hope of better price.

jammo,eli,njunge et al please advice...thanks


anyone who lives within their means suffer from lack of imagination
Even In The Most Severe Drought In The Jungle Lions Will Never Feed On Grass.
Njunge
#14 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:03:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@mypesa,

Can you be patient for a period of not less than 12 months?


Guka wa bijuti...
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
mypesa
#15 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:22:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/14/2007
Posts: 111
@ njunge

yes i can wait till end of the year as long as the patience pays .my fear was i keep holding for so long yet the price may stagnate.

thanks


anyone who lives within their means suffer from lack of imagination
Even In The Most Severe Drought In The Jungle Lions Will Never Feed On Grass.
Kiz
#16 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:44:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2008
Posts: 13
doom can only be to the daily traders. The directors have clearly indicated that they may get the same eps as last year,meaning that end year earnings may really be good. putting cogeneration into account,the share looks to be a bargain. You may also have noted that in the last month or so,the sugar price was increased from about ksh 145-150 to 160-165. All these are extra earnings. my advice will be buy even more when it hits below 5. by august it mat be up 3x. only the very short term traders can run for dear life but in any case they may buy @ 4.5 and sale @ 5.5 in short term and make money.


Kim
eli
#17 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:49:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 294
So if you decide to sell now,then you shall have half of you cash...........as in 9.75/2 = 4.8

That's the bid price people were placing today...............It went as high as 5.20bob,before dropping to 5bob.

In short,you'll get half of your cash back. Now,we are in this business to make money. Not to make losses! I would suggest that you wait.......................Sample this:

While I was at the market today,I overhead a lady speak thus: ' I swear,I will never take in a loss. I once took in a loss when Equity was 312bob,and it went to 170bob and she sold the shares and make a cool loss. Her 0.5M was reduced considerably! She has since learnt to wait,even if its 5 years. This time round,she owns mumias shares which she bought at 12bob,and now the dem share is 5bob. Her verdict: She will wait.'

Selling shares at a loss is giving away 'free' money to someone else! Someone who is ready to wait and make a profit from the same shares! So at that instance you are making a loss and he is making a profit (by buying from you). My verdict: wait,unless there is no otherwise,sell the dem thing: Take in the loss!


But you shall remember the LORD your God,for it is He who is giving you power to make wealth,that He may confirm His covenant which He swore to your fathers,as it is this day. Deu 8:18
Mainat
#18 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:50:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Memo to investors: before putting cash down. Think SWOT and how many of these the CEO can and is doing something about.
FACT: There is a supply gap of around 200m bags of sugar in Kenya. What has Kidero done to fill this gap since he came on board in 2003?
FACT: The power generation project is unlikely to add that much to Mumias&rsquo; PAT. Mumias is still a sugar company.
Agriculture is a sector where the uncontrollable factors outweigh those you can control. Investor beware.

www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
mv ufanisi
#19 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:50:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/13/2006
Posts: 108
I bought this company at 60 in 2007 and was lucky to get off at 30. Truth is after analyzing the company I knew it should have been worth about 6kshs but I was blinded by the market sentiment at that time.
Time is the friend of the good company but the enemy of the bad company.
The main problem with this company seems to be ownership - if it was more privately owned they would be less likely to make as many blunders and for politicians to take advantage of the company.
However at some point it's bound to get very cheap but buying a bad company may eventually lead to losses.
Njunge
#20 Posted : Friday, January 30, 2009 12:53:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
First half of2009 will include stream of income from power.Unit likely to start ops late April but before then second half may be more dismal.If the price drops further,pick and bring down you ave. price..........


Guka wa bijuti...
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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