the deal wrote:@horton If a company is a monopoly and posts a drop in profits is a SELL..what would they do in face of a Bharti like onslaught?
Their MOAT is very weak if i had cash i would probably venture into this biz and give this guys a run for their money...anyways here is why i'm less bullish on Carbacid.
1. High electricity costs-look at your bill this month and put Carbacid in your perspective.
2. Super inflation- this will affect their non alcoholic segment
Well BOC and the other company..in Nyanza (spectra international I believe could be wrong about the name though) had (have) the money....they tried and failed miserably!!
Pray tell...how is Carb's "moat weak"?? They have the most accessible source of CO2 in the region...even the mighty Linden group with all their resources know this quite well and they have burnt their fingers before in the CO2 match up.....there is also:
-- LT contracts with soft drink manufacturers
--Very High Net margins in the range of 40-50% show me another company on the NSE that can do over 40% in NM consistently??
--KO, PG have very strong businesses in their own rights as you know even they have a one off drop n profits...doesnt mean their business is "weak" its a mere speed bump carb is no exception....Carbs profits dropping by a mere 13% for the first time in 6-8 halves...does not constitute "fundamental weakness" I had spoken to the directors during at an AGM about a possible onslaught by the Linden group on Carb's CO2 turf but the director confidently told me that they should bring it on as Carb has been doing this business for over a very long time and have got really good at it...something BOC are wary of...
--Zero leverage
--Unlike BOC, Carbs business is still strong as there i no chinese made CO2 machines as is the case with BOCs core O2 business .
There will never be an onslaught similar to bharti in this sector as it is :
A- Not a Tech
B- Quite specialized kinda like mining coz u gotta look for CO2 rich spots/fields to buy and the extract and these are far and few between...
C- Market is not big enough for several players especially because of limited clientele and Reason B above
Your reasons.... High electricity costs and Super inflation pretty much affects all industries in Kenya not just Carb.